mitchnick

That's probably a good guess and hard to be wrong. Lol

Hrr not far from Rap. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010918&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Isn't great!

It's only fair to consider the high end hot off the presses from the impeccable 21Z RAP. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010921&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rap

Just in case you haven't looked lately, Cfs average forecast for February has gone from torch to average in the east. Trend has obviously been to go colder. We'll see.

Latest Cfs forecast average at TT has gone from torch to average in the east. Lol

Agree. Normally, as I said, it's NE that wins. But this year I actually am concerned about being too far north. The cold has been pressing and warm-ups delayed, so I'm not willing to overlook that possibility as well. It would be just my luck. Lol

Idk, I never get all warm and bubbly when I hear overrunning pattern because NE usually scores best. Hopefully, this year's overwhelmingly cold press puts up a decent fight instead of folding on us.

In the old days, it would be all juiced up.

Nam looking weaker imho at 36hrs

Trend on 18z Nam continues ar 5H imho.

Gem at the end is tasty.

You're wishing my life away!

Early on it was too dry. They all came around at the end, some too much. Lol

Remember how dry the Rgem was for us over the weekend? It was the driest until the end when it finally awoke.

Changes on both Nams and the Hrrr ocurr during the first 24 hours and continue thereafter. I agree with being skeptical, but we're not relying on change to start 48hrs+ this time.

Heisey, I agree it has done well inside 4-5 days, but it has jumped all around beyond day 10, less so between 7-10. The Eps have done a very good job with the pattern since mid-November, if not excellent. Terpeast, you're are spot on with the MJO. I thought the JMA had a decent last year, but this year Gefs and Eps have definitely done better. Eps weeklies as of yesterday's run were only modestly AN for claround the first half of February, with N to AN precip. I think we can score the first half, if only modestly.

Here's Pivotal's Kuchera 3K

3k looking better too but not finished.

It is.

Killing northern stream definitely the ticket. Let's hope other modeling joins the party.

Much better relatively speaking what it was.

Ok https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between.