mitchnick

Who's upset? Calling it the way I see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though.

Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit.

Snow started in the past couple minutes fast and steady. Like a sheet drifted down from the sky.

Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast.

What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms.

Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z.

I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately.

Whatever it takes to snow the most before time runs out.

The map is a mess to say the least.

It's going to include what's left from Monday, so it won't tell you much.

Another view

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

Any thoughts this turning into something bigger than shown on modeling, water vapor says fugetaboutit. https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/wv/

The Ukie may be onto something. Radar shows an area to the west of SPA/NMD developing and moving east. Hmmm https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/neus/

That was a last minute fluke in Baltimore and ne into Phl. Forecasts at 11pm in Baltimore and DC said it would miss us. But the forecaster on Channel 7 in DC, Sam Houston Allred, commented that it was odd that there were radar echos due west of DC. Only a weenie would remember that innocuous comment. Lol Got 6-7" imby. I once asked JB about that storm when he was still at Accuwx, and he remembered it distinctly and said he was jumping up and down saying that it was coming north but was dismissed by Sr. forecasters there.

18z Ukie @psuhoffman The way it should be! Lol

Find a new lawyer JI. Lol

Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries.

I hope this isn't pay walled, but the 12z run of the Cfs looks like what is being described of the Eps and Gefs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you are wondering what kind of snowfall we're talking, run a loop of the snow depth. Nice. Even better, it keeps the trough in the east as of 2/10.

I think the 2/94 event was this one. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period?

It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw.

Euro

You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you?

Never had more snow with SE winds in any winter except for 14/15. And it wasn't once, it was multiple times with that one being the highlight of them. Crazy good.