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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    3k looking better too but not finished.
  2. mitchnick
  3. mitchnick
    It is.
  4. mitchnick
    Killing northern stream definitely the ticket. Let's hope other modeling joins the party.
  5. mitchnick
    Much better relatively speaking what it was.
  6. mitchnick
    Ok https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025010912&fh=39&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  7. mitchnick
    12z Nam has 1006 slp in eastern TN while 0z was 1008. 06 in between.
  8. mitchnick
    Nam doing the same thing as Hrrr thru 24hrs. Will it matter? We'll see in a few.
  9. mitchnick
    That's better than most, but it's the Hrrr.
  10. mitchnick
    It's been messing up the southern stream, so I would expect an improvement in precip. Look at the larger area of yellow and how it's further north on that loop. But we all know, there could always be something else to wreck it. Lol
  11. mitchnick
    Hate to mention the Hrrr, but it's weakening the northern vert over the last 3 6hr runs.
  12. mitchnick
    That's our MLK surprise.
  13. mitchnick
    It's credible this year because it screws NE.
  14. mitchnick
    Accumulating snows with it.
  15. mitchnick
    18z AI looks completely different around that time frame this run than the 12z run. Like I said, it's jumpy too post 240hrs.
  16. mitchnick
    18z Eps
  17. mitchnick
    Hey that's fine, but I was just responding to Ga's rundown of today's weeklies not to anyone or anything else. The weeklies have done very well with temps this winter. And as Michsnowfreak posted, it's hard to believe it'll get warm until it actually occurs. As such, I feel until they're wrong, just run with them. Otoh, a little above normal temps with normal or above precip in February around here would work for snow, so I'm OK with the pattern change the weeklies are showing.
  18. mitchnick
    They also muted BIG time the warmup in the east for weeks 5 and 6 (early February. )
  19. mitchnick
    12z. It's out on the Euro site. You just have to piece it together. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}
  20. mitchnick
    Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side. But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow.
  21. mitchnick
    Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible.
  22. mitchnick
    Euro had 1 run showing the bomb and Gfs 2. Either way, this exercise only proves anything beyond day 4 or 5 is weenie fodder. That said, what time should we start to see the first flakes on the 20th?
  23. mitchnick
    48hrs this run vs 0z and 6z
  24. mitchnick
    Surface-wise, if we want action from the slp, we want to see the rn/sn line move north down south which would signal a northerly trajectory. But chances are not high, of course.
  25. mitchnick
    Pretty sure all players are onshore now, or close enough, so 12z runs are probably the last opportunity for notable changes, if any.
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