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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    No faith in that up here. You might fringed. If I'm wrong, trend better start before Saturday imho unless you can get the kind of change we saw in 12 hours on today's Gem, but across all guidance.
  2. mitchnick
    I think you're right, or mostly right, without digging into it.
  3. mitchnick
    Wonder why. Big change for 12 hours.
  4. mitchnick
    Though it's early, this thing has favored our area once there was a consensus of a wave east of the mts (recall the Gfs and maybe others initially had a storm on the front heading for the Lakes.) I "think" it will favor us in the end, but with how much remains the question. But if it doesn't favor us, any place but central VA and SBY. Reminders of the debacle winter of 72/73 cannot be shaken. Lol
  5. mitchnick
    Even with the 6z run hot off the presses showing precip being really increased for Sunday?
  6. mitchnick
    SE ridge looks inevitable, but doesn't necessarily have to mean no snow. I actually am pretty optimistic that something breaks in our favor in January when the cold is around or February with the likelihood of being at or AN precip. Going to need really bad luck to miss everything substantial imho.
  7. mitchnick
    Never heard of him. I was focused on the euro snowfall map.
  8. mitchnick
    From NE subforum https://x.com/meteomark/status/1879062270723977690?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg
  9. mitchnick
    Looks like EuroAI I just worked up my nerve to look at (lol) actually looks to bring a northern stream lobe down and pulls up some precip from the system next week. That's a new twist. Interestingly, the southern storm is rain and not snow. Hmmm
  10. mitchnick
    You are right, but the kind of agreement between operational models and ensembles is not typical and is normally only seen in slam dunks. For example, 2/6/10 and 1/16 were seen around a week out and held strong until game time with little waffling.
  11. mitchnick
    You're right. Plenty of time to get historic for them. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    Not surprised, incredible and depressing. Lol
  13. mitchnick
    Incredible/depressing how all ensembles are jumping all over a SE major snowstorm.
  14. mitchnick
    Just looked at the Gefs snowfall, and thru 330hrs, big step back from 12z and prior runs.
  15. mitchnick
    Yep. We need a proverbial reshuffle, but it probably wouldn't make a difference with the Niña. Winter has spoken and dry is the word. This month is looking a lot like 1/77, but not quite as cold...not yet at least.
  16. mitchnick
    ...and everyone is depressed.
  17. mitchnick
    Gefs is hell bent on nailing OBX. Top map is day 8 and bottom map is day 10.
  18. mitchnick
    That's sorta the point. Nobody cares about the Ukie, so unless it's showing something great, there's not much worth talking about. It got from me what it deserves. How the verification numbers put it second to the Euro is beyond me.
  19. mitchnick
    I'm not here for your benefit! Lol Look at the model yourself and then there won't be any misunderstanding. Real simple.
  20. mitchnick
    It was warmer than 12z. There are such things in the English language called figures of speech.
  21. mitchnick
    Gfs is just one cold shot after another. I don't remember 13/14 being this persistent.
  22. mitchnick
    Gem gave me 8" and the Ukie 2.5". What are you talking about?
  23. mitchnick
    Ukie warmer. Lol I give up
  24. mitchnick
    Ukie looking to go with the Sunday option.
  25. mitchnick
    I didn't bother mentioning earlier that the AI at 18z slid the Sunday threat to our south for a miss.
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