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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Absolutely. I have a 2-bit theory that you want to be in the bullseye for the first area wide of the season because it almost always means your chances of being the bullseye in subsequent events is higher, and don't want to be on the short end for the first area wide event because it increases odds you'll repeat. I have found for the mid Atlantic area, it works often.
  2. mitchnick
    Anybody take a peak at the end of the HH GFS? Man is it sweet, even for lala land. But Gfs/Gefs have been advertising something big at the end of their runs for a day+.
  3. mitchnick
    The negative for those of us east of the mts is that it comes thru early PM so boundary temps are peaking.
  4. mitchnick
    18z Euro slowed up the vort for Sunday's threat. Always paranoid delayed results in denied.
  5. mitchnick
    For everyone else who's paranoid, Eps 6hr precip 144hrs on 18z vs 12z at 150hrs. Pretty close really.
  6. mitchnick
    Wasn't 93/94 a big overrunning year for you folks?
  7. mitchnick
    I hate seeing anything different on subsequent runs after a good one because you never know where it will take you.
  8. mitchnick
    As long as the end result was what it showed on the 12z run, leed the way CMC. It's all yours baby.
  9. mitchnick
    Yeah, but there was no snow on the 12z Euro at 150hrs either, but ready to pop. You can see as Heisey posted the vort hangs back some. Being in the bullseye of sorts at this range is down right uncomfortable.
  10. mitchnick
    Comparing 18z Euro 144hrs to 12z 150hrs.
  11. mitchnick
    Heights lower on the east coast at the end of this run of the Euro means slp could be further south if model continued. Just speculation at this point. Next run could be different, of course.
  12. mitchnick
    Result better with Euro or too early to know? Pivotal is slower that WB.
  13. mitchnick
    Now THAT'S my idea of overrunning! Oh, how I wish. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011318&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs
  14. mitchnick
    He always would bring up that storm. It dropped like 8-10" in the DCA/BWI area and then had highs in the teens. Actually, for the first time, it may not be such a bad analogy tempwise but just a touch short on snow..or maybe not. We'll see. Reagan's inauguration was cold, but no snow.
  15. mitchnick
    No, that's the Shallow Thought Model.
  16. mitchnick
    2 bucks says JB tries to equate this to the JFK, JR. Inauguration storm at some point.
  17. mitchnick
    For the detailed oriented...and JI
  18. mitchnick
    Going in the right direction too. Gets going earlier this run.
  19. mitchnick
  20. mitchnick
    Gfs another hit
  21. mitchnick
    How has that performed this winter 5-6 days out if you know? Thanks
  22. mitchnick
    Definitely a can kick on the temps. The only week now above normal with temps is week 6 vs weeks 4, 5, and 6 the last several days. Mainly normal vs AN weeks 4 and 5.
  23. mitchnick
    Not wrt to temps. They have been decent. Precip, snow, and any other forecasts I haven't followed closely so I can't comment.
  24. mitchnick
    But without the pics.
  25. mitchnick
    What you call negative, I call honest assessment. But don't confuse negative with disgust. Lol
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