mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Wow...it popped at 66hrs lol
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Icon starting off weaker than 18z. Very little precip at 60hrs vs 18z run
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It's remembering storms like this over the years that had me looking for a house on the north side of Hanover.
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Close for me, but still at 10"+. It's probably too amped, so no worries from me yet.
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I'm not fearing too much cold. I'm just pointing out what the Nam is doing unlike any other model.
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You just did! Lol
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Who needs it? Lol
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Nam's height lines at 60hrs are way east vs models that show a hit. Cold push is too strong imho.
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If you look at the height lines at 60hrs, it's got the 3rd blue line thru Hagerstown vs models that hit have 1. Cold push is just too strong imho.
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Nam will not show a hit this run because it pushes cold well east of models with a hit.
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It does and there's a link to 850's only below. However, one of the Mets in the MA forum familiar with its verifications said not to rely on them literally fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501161800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501190600
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AI has pushed next week closer too, but still a miss for now.
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Yes, and it looks like a hit on the 28th, but not as perfect as the 12z operational...yet! Lol
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Better yet, we get hit on the 28th, though not as hard as the 12z operational. But give it time! Lol
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While the operational flounders, the AI is turning it into a low end warning event.
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Guess would be .25-.5"
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18z AI appears wetter. Start with this 6 hour panel https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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18z AI appears wetter. Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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Euro AI looks wetter. Can't answer about temps. Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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Believe it or not.......AI WETTER! Start with this 6 hour panel. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501161800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501191200
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18z Ukie ensemble meam
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You don't have to be so damned sneaky about it! Lol
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Lt snow here. Had a day of snow with a little less than a half inch. It stopped, then restarted maybe 20 minutes ago.
