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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Next week is going to bring areawide frost and/freeze warnings methinks.
  2. mitchnick
    Looks similar to Euro seasonal, if not better for that 3 month period. C3F has +.5-1C push into the Great Lakes while Seasonal is a decent distance west. Plus, it's colder in NW Canada than Seasonal. So with just map, there is confirmation of the Seasonal which is fine by me...assuming, of course, accuracy.
  3. mitchnick
    You can get that chart and a whole lot more solar stuff at this link. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  4. mitchnick
    42 at the closest Wunderground station.
  5. mitchnick
    Cheaper to let them go and just pay for their funeral. Lol
  6. mitchnick
    The only positive I see is that it should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 6-8 hours. Worst case is for it to meander off the west coast for hours before making its move inland.
  7. mitchnick
    Yet, we've been in a pretty deep - NAO state for a while now and will be for at least another week. Though I don't disagree with the connection, there's apparently more to a -NAO than just the sun, not that you are saying that.
  8. mitchnick
    Got this l I nk from NE forum regarding the PV. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-weak-polar-vortex-event-2024-winter-weather-pattern-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
  9. mitchnick
    In a Niña, I sure hope so or we're all probably screwed!
  10. mitchnick
    You win!
  11. mitchnick
    I set my heat at 65 last night but it never came on.
  12. mitchnick
    Not an enviable list imby except for 20/21.
  13. mitchnick
    Those thinking AN precip must be on X because I see nothing to suggest that in this thread and Niñas are notoriously dry in the I95 corridor in the MA & SE. I don't claim to know climo NYC on north and east, but that area seems to get additional juice from Miller B's we miss down here, but I don't know which area (s) you meant.
  14. mitchnick
    At 500mb, that blend looks pretty darn close to what seasonal modeling is showing. Barring something extraordinary, I think that's a fair guess with hopes it busts cooler. That said, I'm sorry not to see 20/21 as part of your thinking solely for maintaining a weenie dream. Thanks for the Outlook and good luck with the job search.
  15. mitchnick
    44 looks to be lowest around here.
  16. mitchnick
    Updated NMME average for Dec-Feb has most of us at +1-1.5C, which those of us winter lovers would take (a little cooler east of I95 from Wilmington North and east.) It's arguably a touch cooler in that the +1.5-2C line has retreated pretty far south vs the last run, but that's splitting hairs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2maMean_month_nmme&runtime=2024100800&fh=4 EDIT: Normal precip for most of us along the eastern seaboard.
  17. mitchnick
    .10" from last night
  18. mitchnick
    192hrs from 6z on 9/30.
  19. mitchnick
    Gfs first version before losing it was a Helene type track.
  20. mitchnick
    For what little it's worth, Cfs2 continues to cool ever so slightly each day for the past couple of weeks. It's probably too aggressive, but seeing it go the "right" way delays the bubble from bursting another day! Lol
  21. mitchnick
    I would think your side of the mts have the best chance tonight. Good luck.
  22. mitchnick
    My grass is still growing at a decent rate. I ended up with around 3.8" during that 10 day mushroom fest, so I'm fine with dry for the next week+. Summer's over so the hell with the grass!
  23. mitchnick
    Incoming https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
  24. mitchnick
    I never said I expect cold/snowy. In fact, I don't and would be just as surprised as you if we got one. I'm simply talking about a winter that offers potential for favorable periods, which is how it works down here. How much can fall during those periods is TBD by luck of both the exact pattern and storm details. I said a page back, I think, that I'm liking the 1/15-2/25"period for mby.
  25. mitchnick
    Eps from now until Mid-November is showing modest warmth in the east. If you switch to Arctic from North America, Canada is part +0-1C and +1-2C by Mid-November. That's not fatal to our winter imho. So Roundy saying/suggesting AN is not something I would worry about with the Eps looking pretty tame with the warmth imho. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202410050000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202410140000
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