mitchnick

Ohhhh, that's the problem...you don't know the difference between facts and lies. The simulated forecast from a computer is a fact. The forecast may end up right or wrong, but the forecast is a fact. Your post that you couldn't pull up the Gfs forecast and that your purpose was to check on model consensus for next week's blizzard was a lie on top of a lie. Now do understand...liar? Why don't you just stop? It's over.

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada.

Should have added, Icon IS cold enough.

Euro up next. Let's hope it plays along.

Icon run finished and did what I hoped it would do, which is the only way we get snow coincidentally! Lol The cut off low pulls the surface low back to the NW ala 1/25/00. The run stops after getting snow to us but it would be better if it went out further. At least on the lines of the Canadian imho.

Admittedly, at first glance it may seem like a long shot with 1 system coming through with a trailing trough that amplifies thanks to a strong 1st system. Otoh, that's sorta what brought us snow yesterday with a front/trough that moved through and trailing northern stream energy moving to our south. Go to this link to the Canadian 132 hrs 5h and surface map then move it forward. You'll see what I'm talking about. Icon is similar, so try that too, but it stops before the end of the run for some unknown reason. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023121212&fh=132

No. You're just a liar. First you said you couldn't pull up the Gfs and now you're lying why you lied in the first place. Congrats....you accurately represent people pushing the lies you believe.

Probably because you're too stupid.

Here's a thought....maybe models suck.

Canadian

Hey, Canadian has the threat now too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121212&fh=168

Dang Icon is stuck at 171 hrs. Love to see how that plays out.

Hey Bliz/93...don't look at the end of the Icon run. Gfs isn't too far off of it either.

That's good. Gawx, I believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east.

First time the mean dropped below the bottom red line. Per the explanation on the link: " During a SSW event, the ensemble (blue) will be close to the lower (more negative) extreme of the model extended range climate (ER-M-climate) (lower red line)." Here's the link if you don't have it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312110000

Those are Gfs forecasts. Yesterday's Eps pretty much has it falling apart (almost.) I am posting the link instead of a pic because at the link you can look back at the prior 6 days of Eps forcasts. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202312100000&filter=no&parameter=zonal wind 850 hPa

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries. This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's. I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I trust your analysis. When I step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas.

Storm radar starting around 7pm, but moves ahead the longer you wait to see it of course. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-200-100-usa-rad

Looks like we wait until January unless we sneak something in during the last week of the month. It is what it is.

Ditto here.

This looks good, but would have been great a few degrees colder.

Closest Wunderground site to me is 34. The one near the top of Pigeon Hills is already 32.

Woke up at 12:43 with real wet snow and a coating on roofs. Might have a shot at a couple inches per radar returns....nah.

That bright line moving east should be the rain/snow line. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad

Yes. Just looking at Georgia radar and water vapor. Links to wv on top and radar on the bottom. On wv, check out how the clouds are expanding westward near KY and how radar in the state of GA is exploding/filling in. I like the trajectory too. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/seus/