mitchnick

Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Will this do?

Let's just not engage CC or his alter ego TimB. They are not happy souls. Has either ever posted anything positive for cold and/or snow? Of course not, and it's intentional. The whole purpose is to bring everyone down their dark, depressing hole. Best to leave them in their corner alone because they are not here to sincerely discuss weather and there's nothing anyone on this Board can do to cure them.

It's you. You have no joy in your life. Seriously.

And they could just as easily switch back in a day or 2 like they switched today. As consistent as they have been for the past 2 weeks, you'd almost expect it.

"could" end up historically strong? Boy, that's really going out on limb for you. Lol

It includes an inch, gige or take, with the u/l low that swings thru after the big rain and the an inch or 2 on CHRISTMAS EVE!

Everyone asleep for the Euro? 10:1 and Kuchera.

Looking at the trailing vort on the 6z op and eps along with eps snowfall map it looks like we should see at least snow showers, if not some light snow accumulations, with the vort passage.

It's a ripoff. You're paying for the pool and attractions. I haven't been and doubt I ever will. But I'm not a traveler, as in the complete opposite of Canderson. Lol

Ouch! I've never been, but my wife took my daughter and grandchildren to the one in the Poconos this summer. My daughters has a lot of miles on her car, so they took my wife's. As soon as they checked in, my daughter went out to get some stuff for the kids and barely got far enough down the road to lose site of Great Wolf when a huge buck jumped out in front of her. $5500 damage, but the deer jumped right up and walked away. Lol

Don't lie. You went to Great Wolf and can't get away from the paw and pup attractions.

0z Gefs snowfall probably the best of the year so far too.

18z Euro now has a stronger trailing vort vs a stronger primary that the 12z had. Too early to say if it will help, but the only way we could get snow would be from the trailing vort.

First time the mean crossed the lower red line so convincingly. Giddy up!

Waiting for Larry's analysis of the Eps 10mb. I have a hunch what he might say.

Anybody think it's gone on the 12z run? Edit: The ocean storm backing in.

Sun about at peak for the solar cycle.

Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6.

6z Gefs look alot like the other 2 fwiw.

That was the winter that turned me into a hard core weenie. Mby, 3 miles south of BWI, got 1 inch the whole winter from a frontal passage the first week of 2/73. I remember it vividly because of the scars. Lol Funny that what made it so bad was we had 1 winter storm watch and one ws warning that resulted in no snow, just cirrus. They had a model back then, I think it was the LFM but could be wrong, and it sucked as much as the current ones. Because of that winter, I thought it would never snow again, so I pulled my first all-nighter in 12/73 literally listening all night long to the only album available, Alice Cooper's I'm Eighteen. Snow started around 5:30am allowing me a couple hours of sleep. No 2 winters are alike, so I wouldn't worry about a repeat of that one. I'm sure there are plenty more unique ways to fail fortunately.

Well if that's all we're talking, no need to be concerned over a repeat.

Not saying it's right, but that's what you call a rubber band 10mb pattern.

What pattern period are you referring to when you say "...this pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994?" Attached are 500mb for 12/1/23-12/10/23 & 12/94. They're nothing alike. I know I've seen it mentioned on this Board in other forums as well. Why do you/others (if you know) say it? Or are you referring to a model prog. If so, which one?

Way too complicated for the models to figure it out at this range, but they all feature the 2 Low scenario. And with the cold air lurking to the north and a deep surface Low or 2, it's something to follow since at 2 out of the 4 models give us snow at this point. Ukie isn't in range yet, except it does give us rain, which really makes me think the Euro operational is out to lunch. Even the Eps drops .75" of rain imby.