mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Gfs goes goofy due to a huge area of cold in Canada pressing south.
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Light snow for 1/7. Looks like Gfs wants to send energy out in poeces because there's already another vort gaining steam by the 8th headed east.
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1/6-1/7 threat has makings of a monster if it can come together right.
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One down, another looks to be out west.
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Gfs has 1st January threat approaching on 1/4. Buckle up!
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Close miss onnthe Canadian, but in the ballpark at this range. Nice 5H look.
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Canadian looking interesting at days 8-10.
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Not last night's runs. All looked very good and all had some appreciable snowfall post NYD. Impressive for such long range forecasts of ensemble products.
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Downstate PA not good enough for you, ehh?
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Not saying it's right, but it is impressive if nothing else.
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Don't look now, but 2/10 just walked in the door. Sharp north cut-off included.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion
mitchnick replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region
If accurate, it could just be a natural response to cool global oceans. -
It's the DC culture.
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In weenie world, the best of times have the ensembles supporting the operational runs. But we're too far out for that. Be that as it may, I personally believe we have our first legit threat at a legit snowstorm to track fwiw.
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No way slp would head for the GL with the ensemble mean 500mb and 250mb wind flow.
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Should have said, it's the same system reflected at the end of the Gfs essentially. And you know what they say...the big ones are sniffed out far in advance...sometimes.
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Really decent signal on the Eps for a snowstorm 1/3-1/5 period.
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Exactly in response to the original poster.
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Clouds came in. Same here.
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Cloud cover /rain theory may work in the summer....may....but cloud cover in the winter maintains higher temps at night and those AN/BN are daily averages. I don't know how many times it has to be posted on this site (mentioned a lot in the MA and NE forums) that Canada can be above normal while below normal in the Conus because Canada normal is very cold in actual temps.
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If the Federal Government had a nickel for every post you've made with the phrase "constructively interfering " or variation thereof, the national debt would be halved. I just hope this Niño peaks soon or I fear it will constructively interfere with your wedding preparations.
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https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CCX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad
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That'll change come the New Year. Ensembles are sweet and every MJO forecast is outstanding, except the Australian BOMM, which should be bombed it's so bad. It had a Niño peak >+3C!!!
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Fyi, you can get all MJO progs at this link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
