mitchnick

The sad fact is that its 11+ days away and we just saw what happened to our Monday/Tuesday threat in less than 36 hrs. Hard to get excited this far out

Ukie is way north with next week.

3 runs in a row on the Gfs

6z Eps north...way north from 0z.

Ukie is a huge hit. This is snow depth because they don't offer snowfall for some odd reason.

I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond!

I could never be that accomplished.

I never had any goals in life, except to finish my paper route on time.

They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink.

Lol. Ok

I just look at snowfall maps. At 7pm Monday, the snow is to our west with no accumulations. At 1AM on Tuesday, there is some snowfall accumulations. That's good for my purposes.

I know. Eps are showing mean snowfall period would be between Monday evening to Tuesday.

Perfect timing for me. I'm loving it.

He!! Yeah it is! End of the run gives some hope too.

Yep. Figured that would happen once the Euro was showing a closed low in Texas. Closed 5H lows along or near the Gulf never come north unless you have northern stream energy at the perfect spot pulling them north. Much better odds with an open 5H low. Of course, once to WVA or Western VA and to our south, close em' on up and we'll rock.

Ukie has next week a wound up rainstorm centered in western TN Monday 12z fwiw. But Ukie's always drunk at this range.

12z Gefs looks good for next week.

Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip.

Icon looks ready to go boom past 180hrs on 12z run.

So they got around half their annual climo in 1 storm. That's not unusual in the Mid Atlantic and other locations in the east.

I think we're going to be in a dry period for an extended period, short of clippers, after next week so I really hope it can work out for all.

Eps 0z top 6z bottom

6z Eps look flatter, hence better, for next week imho.

6z Gefs have continued the progression of the -Nao ridging building south into the Great Lakes just like the Gfs operational has been showing. Question now is whether the Geps and Eps follow. We'll see. All 3 ensembles do continue to show BN precip for the last 7 days of their runs, unfortunately. So in that respect, they already agree. That fact does suggest to me that Geps and Eps will cave to Gefs with the ridge. In practical terms, however, it probably doesn't matter how they get dry. Extended Eps do show AN precip beginning the last few days of February into March, so there's that.

6z Gefs also favor central and northern PA for next week.