mitchnick

12z Euro is nice on the 1 day of the winter I don't want it. But everyone else enjoy for 12 hrs.

Too much of a good thing on day 16 imho. But it will either weaken as we approach and be ok or get so strong as to develop a full latitude ridge like what we are in now. Believe me, anything is possible despite what these silicon boxes are spitting out today.

Terrible Gfs run post 2/14.

12z Icon is suppressed but not necessarily completely. I think it’s just delaying it by 12hrs, give or take, but too early to say for sure. Let's see what other guidance says.

Little surpised Bliz didn't post Icon at the end of it 0z run. Similar evolution as Euro but looks a tad colder with an overall better setup. Of course, 12z will be out shortly on Pivotal which may diss the whole idea. Lol

Well, I'm willing to sacrifice next year if necessary. Lol

I can't recall if that's the right page of the handbook since I ripped that page out of mine in disgust years ago.

Looking ahead to next year, I'm personally rooting for as strong a Niña as possible. Why? I would like to see if that AN pool in the western Pac at 30c or more Bluewave has referenced along with the AN Indian Ocean temps get wiped out, will that make a difference with the MJO/US temps in general. Additionally, strong Niñas often cool other oceans somewhat. The current world sea surface temps and SSTA are attached. You can see the +30c waters in the western Pac east of Australia. They were a bit warmer a month ago, but this is good enough. Next I attached the Cansips latest run for 1/25 and then the Cfs for 11/24 since that's as far as the current forecast goes. You can see the 30c+ area has cooled a lot on both models as well as the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. I'm sure if I screwed up the area Bluewave was referring to, he can correct me. But I think I got it right for the most part. Assuming we do get those ocean temps to cool, we may still have to wait another year, God willing, to see results and then hope they don't rise again! Lol In any event, it'll be interesting the results next winter assuming the Cansips and Cfs forecasts are close to being right.

Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon.

If accurate, no, it's not bad. But the Gefs are almost always too snowy. 12z Eps thru entire 360 hrs is really bad, and I see no reason to think it's wrong vs Gefs since Gefs have in 1 run just caved to the Eps on days 15-16.

Bliz, my point was and remains that the ensemble guidance can't detect the little nuances which are sufficient to fook our chances. As for patience, some of us have been weenies since the 1960's and realize that asking for patience at this point in the season is a stretch at best. Maybe in the mts. or in central and northern PA they can afford to be patient, but near the MD border and outside of the mts, me being patient or not has no effect on the calendar.

Eps snowfall on day 14, which obviously includes 13, is attsched. Nothing of consequence. Pure scattering of nothing.

Might as well pile on with the bad news. I also said the stronger ridge to the east would warm things up than thought. Top map is 12z and bottom map 18z.

Ughh. Just what I feared. My earlier post mentioned that the ensembles, especially the Eps and Geps, had a broad, oval ridge out west poking into the TN Valley approaching the MA, fearing it would suppress precip. Well, like clockwork, the 18z Gefs succumb to the Eps and Gefs. The top 2 maps are off the 12z with the 5H anomalies and 6-hour precip at the end of the run. Bottom 2 are off the 18z for the same time as 12z. Look how the ridge in the west is now stronger and pushing much further east and looks a lot like the 12z Eps and Geps (assuming you bothered to look at them.) Now look at the precip map...weaker and much further south thanks to the pancake ridge blocking the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. It's cr@p like this that is absolutely maddening because those "perfect" maps, at least in recent years, continue to degrade ascwe approach crunch time. And before some knucklehead jumps in and claims it, it has nothing to do with CC. It's just lousy modeling and even worse luck than was thought possible. Now this doesn't mean I am saying no change to cold or that this can't morph into something good or great past current models runs. I am saying, however, don't trust any model that shows a snowy or perfect pattern no matter how certain or clear it looks to be on modeling.

Where's that?

I edited the above post as I mistakenly posted n/s trough instead of ridge.

I'm sorry, I do not like at all that broad, oval ridge in the west that's poking itself into the TN Valley approaching the Mid Atlantic, most pronounced on the Eps and Geps, less so on the Gefs. If that keeps expanding (go look at all 3 ensembles days 12 to end), that will suppress southern systems imho and eventually provide a warmup before the next uneventful cold front moves south. I certainly hope I'm wrong, but it will throw a monkey wrench into our pattern vs a needed n/s oriented ridge.

Bwi reported 28.2" over a 4 day period. The controversy was whether it was correct to report as one storm the snow that fell Friday night thru and including Monday as there 2 lulls. I remember getting into an argument with somebody on Usenet (I think) from NE who called me a liar when I gave the total. He was around 20 and he said BWI can't get much snow ever because he just figured our 9" in 00/01 and 4" in 01/02 was climo. Young punk! Lol

PDI was great at BWI too. Woke up at 3am to 2-3"/hr. Ended with 18-19".

As you should know, the cause for the warming has been the current MJO wave. It's been on the models for at least 8 days as evidenced by the attached Eps 850 wind anomaly forecast from 1/25. It's been on the models longer than that, but I don't have anything else handy to attach. And considering the Eps have been showing the upcoming pattern change since before 1/25, I think it's fair to say the models have figured it into their forecasts. So to quote a well-respected wx enthusiast, "no changes." Moreover, it's the strong MJO wave that's prompting the threat of a SSW. After this equatorial warming event, the Niño is toast.

Once cold is established by the Eps, these are the next 3 weeks' precip anomalies starting with week ending 2/26 off yesterday's run.

Thanks for the reminder. I remember the day when old people were a protected class...sonny.

Can't believe they filmed me without my consent.

Is it just as green on your side of the fence?