mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Euro seasonal does now show a solid weak Niña fwiw. Bye-bye 19/20 lol
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Don't you find it crazy that none of the "experts" mentioned it in their forecasts? I will give them some slack with their original forecasts since the solar activity was supposed to peak by now and at a lower level. But I would have thought that at least a few of them would have cautioned about it with updates before now. It just supports my skepticism with any long range (years, decade(s), etc.) temp forecasts. And if it's not at a point of certainty with the high solar effects, seems like even more skepticism for long range forecasting is warranted imho.
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Ot. Shame they don't make car dealer commercials like this anymore.
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Generally BN August across the area and 2 decently BN cold shots with another next week is certainly different from what we've had during the period the last 5+ years if my broken memory serves.
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Those are August forecasts. Let's see what happens when September forecasts are out...God help us!
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York 45 low
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Consensus missed last winter as well. I don't like seeing the Euro seasonal going against us because it's been best with its Niña forecast. New Euro seasonal run comes out on the Euro site Thursday I believe, so we'll see. Paid sites may already have it, idk. Hopefully, it looks more like the Cansips, and even the Cfs2 for that matter which has recently looked more like the Cansips with cold draped across Canada and the northern tier.
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If we're lucky, the cold shots will keep coming thru the winter followed by warmer periods preceeded by snowfall. The last 2 Cansips runs (for the winter period) sorta show that as possible based on 5H and surface temps for December and January. Cfs2 is now saying it's possible for December too, but I won't be shocked if I get banned for mentioning the Cfs2. The place to be this winter will be north methinks, at least more than usual. Thus, Bubbler and I will be frustrated a little more this year if the Cansips is closer to right than wrong. But we'll get our chances like everyone else.
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Trust me, I did not take it personally nor do I take myself seriously. Purely for some levity. I don't have a Twitter account nor do I choose to browse it and believe those some of my better decisions in life. Lol
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Just when I thought I could start saving money on therapy, you have to drop this bomb on me? I need some time in a corner alone.
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You could have saved yourself the effort and asked first if I cared, because I don't. We all knew what you were trying to do with your original post, so don't run away from it. And yes, I knew the March record was matched in 2012 ( which is why I said was "first recorded") just you like you know it was also matched in 1994. So thanks for proving my original point that your effort to diminish the frost forecast is dwarfed by "days of yore" when during the same year a monthly record low was recorded, a monthly record high was recorded then matched 1 decade then 3 decades later. P.s. Enjoy future conversations on the subject. I'm done.
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Change the discussion when your point is destroyed, ehh. Lol Lightweight.
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Your efforts to suggest the "days of yore" were any different falls short. The record high for the month of March at Bradford was first recorded on March 30, (you guessed it) 1986. Lol
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I'd take that bet too if I were you.
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Oz Gfs went a little tropical happy, but 6z naso much.
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For the inland Mid-Atlantic and most SNE areas, snow to sleet/zr seem like our best chances this year, with a flat out change to all rain in coastal/lowland areas. Short of a fluke, or should I say miracle, it's not a pattern conducive to 6"+ all snow events imby by any stretch.
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Comparing this run to August's, it's a little cooler here in south central PA in Dec & Jan and a little warmer in Feb. In typical Nina fashion, unfortunately, it's a dry'ish run for much of the east. Verbatim, January looks like our best shot for wintry weather, which is typical here in Niñas. Really looks like a congrats NNE and Midwest sorta year.
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Don't know if anyone saw it, but JB says warm and not snowy in the east this winter citing the MJO in phases 4-6. But really, there are more reasons than just the MJO on paper. But, the hurricane season was supposed to be a blockbuster and we see how that's gone so far.
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It's like instantly adding 1 or 2 posts per day to his limit, assuming he's still limited. For the record, I don't see why he couldn't be allowed to post in here without limit. I don't know what's gone on in the other forums, but everyone in here seems to get along reasonably well considering the different viewpoints. But then again, I got suspended last winter for 6 days because of a political post, so maybe I'm not the one to ask! LOL
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Oh, I'd love to be in your location. Only thing that will save me is my interior location and 600' asl. That said, 07/08 still stunk here.
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Sadly, 07/08 isn't much better than 22/23 imby and would go down as an F instead of F-.
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I usually root for your forecasts, but I hope that one backfires on you. Lol
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OT. For the old f@rts in the forum like me who fondly remember the 76/77 & 77/78 winters, this is a great video. The guy who did it has others, but I haven't checked them out. A lot of wx stuff you'll probably know but a decent presentation about the big events of those 2 winters.
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Eps Control runs for storms have always been too cold and snowy imby. I think they are run for "business purposes" for their vendors to create excitement in the weenie wx world. I know that sounds awfully cynical, but let's face it, a decent amount of money is spent by weenies for modeling and it can't be good for business to not throw a bone or 2 for the weenies.
