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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    18z 3k Nam https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2024091718&fh=60
  2. mitchnick
    +NAO for October on the Cfs2, if true, bodes well for winter chances of a -NAO per Chuck's historical odds.
  3. mitchnick
    12z Eps likes southern and southeastern portions of the state.
  4. mitchnick
    Smile Bubbler! It's the Euro.
  5. mitchnick
    I don't dispute that, well not much (lol), but Maue's graph shows that previous peaks usually had a double peak. We've had that, so between that and just about all the measurements on the top graph at that link, I think the top is in. Whether we linger there is the only question in my mind. Either way, we won't reach the level of 01/02 all things considered imho. If I'm wrong...so what?
  6. mitchnick
    They will...NC, VA, and I95 east will get crushed.
  7. mitchnick
    6z Euro qpf fwiw
  8. mitchnick
    Comparing this year to 01/02, this years sunspot numbers are lower than 01/02 (per the graph in the Maue tweet.) Likewise, as I posted yesterday, we may be at the peak based on the link below. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  9. mitchnick
    I saw 2 in my wife's garden over the weekend.
  10. mitchnick
    6z Nams a lot wetter than globals here and for Bubbs.
  11. mitchnick
    This is the link to model verification scores at 500mb from 120 hours out. It doesn't help with precise precip or temp forecasts. Unfortunately, the link hasn't been updated for some reason unknown to me. Keep checking back as eventually it will be. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/
  12. mitchnick
    A September 15th 10-day forecast may be relevant to the coming winter when the original poster conditioned it on 2 levels? OK
  13. mitchnick
    Niña falls are notoriously dry without tropical activity, so expect more of the same if the tropics remain underwhelming.
  14. mitchnick
    Yep. 12z went with globals. 6z Nam was around 2" out your way. Lol
  15. mitchnick
    The mesos are wetter than the globals if that means anything.
  16. mitchnick
    Beautiful 65 degrees, cloudy, and dreams of wet snow changing to rain in Hanover.
  17. mitchnick
    He used the word "may" on 2 different levels. It was a useless post by Noll. Why even repost this?
  18. mitchnick
    6z Euro went south. What the heck has happened to the models? 3-5 day forecasts are just useless anymore.
  19. mitchnick
    Sun "may" have finally peaked looking at everything at this link. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
  20. mitchnick
    Max was 80.1. On another note, why the NWS is adding tenths of degrees now vs. never before smells of tacking on warmth to make it look warmer when compared to historical numbers. People wouldn't really do that, now would they?
  21. mitchnick
    Great call from 4-5 hours out. Lol https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html
  22. mitchnick
    Where's that?
  23. mitchnick
    Great omen on This Old House rerun this morning. Original date of airing was 2/15/03!
  24. mitchnick
    This looks familiar...oh yeah, all the Atlantic hurricane forecasts from 6 months ago.
  25. mitchnick
    Honestly, I haven't been looking at much modeling before last night. I don't know what ensembles were showing before the 0z run, but I can say they're all on board with an 1"+ event for us. Heaviest still to the south of us.
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