mitchnick

That's what I was talking about with a delay. I'm sure it's tied to their differing MJO forecasts.

Gefs 12z is starting the delay dance a bit to my eyes.

Don't look now, but at 270 hrs the effin' 12z Gefs are holding onto the se Canada ridge down the east coast longer along with a trough out west. That combo holds onto AN temps thru at least 1/3. It'll go on longer, but that's as far as the run goes right now. This is NOT what we want to see. Is it just the Gfs suite, idk? But hopefully it doesn't start showing up on the Eps or Geps. I am sooooo pissed right now.

If we get that type of "pattern change," it's often preceeded by a decent sized storm. Plus, if that Hudson Bay blocking fails to completely decay, a -PNA won't be the death knell for east coasts snow threats.

That market really is nothing short of gambling. It has nothing to do with predicting weather and more about predicting models. What a way to pay your bills.

Of course. I have no life.

Doesn't take long for modeling to go from fantasyland to blah. Lol

Usetobe, a retired NWS Met out of LWX (DC) who now only posts when storms are imminent, did a study some years ago and found a -AO was a far more reliable predictor of mod and major snowstorms at DCA/BWI/Mid-Atlantic than a -NAO. So that's music to my ears Larry. Thank you!

Eps snow mean jumped by almost 4" vs 0z run. Lol

Wow!

It wasn't out yet on Pivotal.

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'. Next as in 1/5

BLIZZ....EURO

Regarding February, I noticed something on the Euro weeklies. If you go to the link below, which is Arctic 2M temps, and progress through the weeks, keep an eye on the sw coast of Canada. As you get to week 2, you can see warm temps being replaced with average and BN temps, then that colder area expands and slides SE into the Plains. some BN and normal come week 3. Week 4, the normal temps weaken to a little warmer than normal, followed by week 5 and it is AN. But then at week 6, and here's my point, the AN temps are replaced with normal temps and the whole process from earlier in the run "appears thru these weenie eyes," to be getting ready to repeat. One difference I see is that instead of large areas of both BN and AN temps on the other side of the Pole at week 1, there's mainly normal temps. Effects if I'm "somehow " correct with the repeat pattern idea, I don't know. But my weenie brain says normal temps across the Poles come the end of January are cold vs recent years, and that would maintain seasonal, if not BN, cold. This could all change with today's or future runs as there's plenty of time for that, but that area in sw Canada grabbed my attention. Of course, if the cooling is simply from the ridge decaying, that would likely negate my thoughts. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412210000&projection=opencharts_arctic&valid_time=202502030000

If we don't ALL score in January with AN snow totals, I'll be more shocked and pissed than all of the last 3 winters combined.

6z Euro just came in with over running snows late Christmas night into the 26th for the "usual spots" so far this year.

I know. Just bustin' chops. I've probably posted more than you in my weenie career, trust me. Lol

6z Gfs say Merry Christmas to many. Just don't count on it. Yeah, I'm talking to you Bliz! Lol P.s. No, Mt. Joy, you're not still drunk.

Can't we just guess? All in good faith, of course.

Odds of maintaining a +PNA in January are increasing. @GaWx

Who do you get to sign your passport? I gotta' guy...

QUIT STALKING MEEEEEEEeeee!!!!!!

Right atop my cold, d@mn heart.

Snow is accumulating here. Right under a streamer.