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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    This includes other stuff, but Kuchera is better than 10:1 in this threat.
  2. mitchnick
    Eps is out too. 12z run better than 0z. 0z on top.
  3. mitchnick
    At this point, operationals are just a higher skilled ensemble member wrt 1/6 & beyond. We wait.
  4. mitchnick
    Even the actual Euro site is only out to 24hrs.
  5. mitchnick
    Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams.
  6. mitchnick
    You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer.
  7. mitchnick
    Gem at 156hrs looks much different thann0z. S/w is more amped put west. Shocked if it cuts, but shred and suppression still on the table.
  8. mitchnick
    He was trying to keep it Direct.
  9. mitchnick
    6z Euro/Eps a little faster than 0z in moving system eastward. No big changes other than that to these weenie eyes.
  10. mitchnick
    Can't disagree one bit, but the end of fantasyland on the Gfs ain't chopped liver either, though it starts a little warmer.
  11. mitchnick
    Nice runs on the 0z Euro and 6z Gfs.
  12. mitchnick
    Next 1 is lighter snow, but close to much better.
  13. mitchnick
    The slp off the coast that was 1/6 storm refuses to leave which is messing up the flow methinks.
  14. mitchnick
    Or Flipper.
  15. mitchnick
    Hits a wall. I'd be fuming if I was in NE.
  16. mitchnick
    Any tic or 2 of trending and it'll look more like the Euro unfortunately.
  17. mitchnick
    12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational.
  18. mitchnick
    Fyi, Ukie ensembles now available on Pivotal out to 198 hrs on free site. Can never have too many ensembles. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024122912&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  19. mitchnick
    6th not a southern slider on Eps.
  20. mitchnick
    Last 4 runs on the Euro for the 6th, including today's. And to think it has the highest verification numbers (but that's admittedly at 5 days.) More changes to come obviously.
  21. mitchnick
    Today's 12z run plus prior 3 12z and 0z runs of the Euro operational. Expect more changes to come.
  22. mitchnick
    Time for the Gefs.
  23. mitchnick
    With the cut intact, may set up for big dog.
  24. mitchnick
    I should have added this too. Doesn't look like it'll have a chance to go far enough north to ruin things even if it does try.
  25. mitchnick
    Agreed, but it's better than your average ensemble member and has other support, so it's worth taking a look.
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