Jump to content

Heisy

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,060

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    It’s hard to know, but the Ukie could be in a good spot here. Trough is neutral and going negative it seems. Just throwing it out there. It does seem a little cutoff from the flow so idk how north it would go. I can’t decide if it’s good or not lol
  2. Heisy
    Trough goes negative slightly too late. If we had that northern energy start to drop South a bit sooner or if the shortwave negatively tilted a bit sooner would have been nice. with bowling ball events like this the models are going to have an extremely tough time. I wouldn’t worry one way or another until we get it to 96 hours... better news is both cmc and gfs have really good patterns after this one on today’s runs.
  3. Heisy
    6z para is a different story in the LR for now. I would never look at the OP gfs. Idk why but it seems a lot of excitement on wx forums doesn’t start until the LR gfs shows a hit, but it’s a horrific model. Stick to the ensembles. Not telling you to be unrealistic but we need some more patience. If we get to feb without a few inches yeah maybe start to get concerned
  4. Heisy
    EPS looks fine to me. There could be a relaxation, but pac improves. Rememver our pattern change wasn’t until after this potential event. This would just be icing on the cake. Still forever to go. I’d favor maybe the southeast and mid Atlantic right now. Think euro OP didn’t have a ton of support who knows
  5. Heisy
    Please don’t ban me. Lol... The model lead up before this was pretty epic. A damn shame. Do you remember me texting you on AIM the night before the storm after the ETA went east? Think my messanger name was b35jnelley but idk haha. Don’t ask me why I remember that this storm is very nostalgic for me it was when I first got into wx.
  6. Heisy
    Yep pretty good cave at H5 there. It’s not there yet, but was way closer than 12z was.
  7. Heisy
    Snow map from gfs kind of has those same qualities. This means nothing though. No two storms are ever the same like psu said. I just use the cips site to see if heavy hitters are showing up.
  8. Heisy
    No it was December 30 2000. Huge dc bust. Accumulated partly sunny skies I believe lol. Forecast was like 4-8” the night of the storm. Miller b developed too Far East. Here in Philly we got 8” but Just a few miles west got nothing
  9. Heisy
    I know, sorry. I had posted on another forum that it looked like dec 30 a bit while the gfs was coming out. It does have a lot of Miller b attributes so far on the modeling. Apologies in advance let me add. Obvious differences here, but both dec 30 event and this one were bowling ball events. Probably why it’s showing up on cips along with the block.
  10. Heisy
    Interesting December 27 2000 shows up on the analog list. (Obv similar pattern to the dec 30 storm) I thought the gfs snowfall map and precip orientation looked very similar
  11. Heisy
    It’s not atrocious, but this run keeps the heavy stuff off shore. Not saying gfs is right at all, just throwing it out there
  12. Heisy
    If those dynamics don’t get over you temps will be a major issue. It’s the gfs so not taking it verbatim, but 18z keeps heavy stuff off shore. Look at surface temps...this is at 70 hours
  13. Heisy
    Really? All upset over a day 7-8 euro run that was a few miles from being a hit?
  14. Heisy
    Feels like I’ve been tracking this event for 2 months. Hard to bet against the euro, but it has caved before.
  15. Heisy
    Man this looks good
  16. Heisy
    No problem. I get a little front end in Philly, over to rain and then back to snow I guess. Nice hit for the burbs down here. Hoping i get to chase this next one to NH and stay home for the 8th
  17. Heisy
  18. Heisy
    CMC later in the run crush job for the 8-9th
  19. Heisy
    I’m chasing this as long as NH is my farthest spot. I might be stuck there though lol. Just snows and snows for days
  20. Heisy
    12z cmc at 120
  21. Heisy
    As you can see that pesky northern piece isn’t screwing up the flow. Let’s see what happens...
  22. Heisy
    Gfs has better separation. That northern branch piece isn’t interfering this run
  23. Heisy
    Much better confluence on gfs at 120
  24. Heisy
    Out of its range, but fwiw. It’s still snowing from VT into ME at 84 hours here...
  25. Heisy
    Reggie still not caving. In fact it looks even more tucked than 6z
×
×
  • Create New...