Heisy

It’s been too far north recently at this range so I wouldn’t sweat it that much, concerns are valid. Let’s hope a good euro run

Farther N, but not as bad as the crazy 00z run

You said it earlier for this one, For dc you really need the right balance of the wave being strong enough but not gaining too much latitude because there really isn’t much cad ahead. Now the 29th event has a much better cad look because you already have NS confluence ahead of it, but that one has issues with being strong enough with a fast flow behind it. I’m just as frustrated here in philly. I expect the euro to Come north but my guess is not as much as Ukie or cmc.

This looks like it would favor NE as we head into feb/March...

Hopefully we get to call it baby snowmageddon or junior? I’m in Philly but I’d def chase to W VA if euro is right. This H5 of feb 3 2010 but you can see the storm forming in southwest just like this one. Good point on the nino stj. Night. Hopefully another good day tomorrow.

Hmmm...not comparing the amounts just the placement and gradient. That one came out of the southwest too. It was just more organized.

I wish lol. I only chase if I’m truly desperate or there is a solid chance to see 2ft. This looks more like a 6-10 deal best case, but like I said I hope I can. I always root on the snowiest evolution regardless of where it is. let me also add the gfs is a god awful model and should have 0 bearing on this storm. Hell in December, 48 hours or so out the gfs had a few runs that didn’t have BGM getting 1 flake of snow & they got 40+” lol... That being said I’ll be the first to hop on its bandwagon and get excited when it shows 2 feet so can’t fault anyone.

Anyone else notice the trowal on the euro? Makes sense considering models showing a sheered out flat wave. Too far out to talk about details, but if this ends up being the case it would definitely cause precip to exit more slowly.

Save from what? I mean didn’t the Canadian crush you guys too? You have the para, cmc, and now the euro, who cares what the worst model out of the bunch says, aka GFS. Said it yesterday and I see no reason to change. South of MAson Dixon line is where I’d wanna be right now.

See that little spike of the AO near the 29th? More reason that one has legs, could be our Archambault event. I mean, it’s the psu storm first of all, but just sayin’.

The initial moisture is from the stj influx. The shortwave weakens imo because it’s stuck between 3 features, the block. (Hp), 29th wave right behind it, and the 50/50 sitting there.

Imo you guys are in a great spot right now. You do really well with positively tilted shortwaves/weakening energy. I like your chances with the 29 event too. Good old wave #3. Personally I think that one ends up the strongest. It has the best setup as the first wave ushers in HP.

To be fair last nights euro was pretty much a rainstorm. At this range can’t expect accurate model runs... we’re starting to see how this might progress though. First time in a while might be catching a break

Not really,..it trended towards the same progression with the lead energy going ahead and then the main energy coming east. It just has stronger lead wave which is likely bs. It’ll cave para does same thing but is a big va hit

This progression is on the 6z para. It’s also on some of the 6z GEFS members. May be our best shot...

I missed feb 06 in Philly, was at Pitt at the time for school. Still pissed I missed this...

Yep. It’s why I put up caution flags once the Op gfs trended that way. Now, we do have a decent 50/50 and I wouldn’t discount some front end. We could hope that main shortwave trends faster and stays more disconnected from the lower heights west of the block. I just would not expect a pure classic snowstorm at this range. This has sloppy mess written all over it. I also agree that this event may set the stage for the one around the 30th. See now you’ve trapped lower heights under the block. Youd want that confluence to be a bit better, but it’s a more favorable look. Then again now we’re talking day 10+ & what can go wrong this winter will go wrong so far, is what it is.

As pointed out by tombo on another forum relating to my post. Issue is with the block Rotating kind of in a non ideal fashion. It’s going from North to South instead of a E-W track. You then get HP squeezed from the SE ridge extending to the block. We could still get WAA snows, but this could be a problem for an all snow event. It’s still the best look we’ve had in a while and many days out. This 00z trend though is an issue to keep an eye on. With a normal block you would have pinched off lower heights near the lakes and better confluence out ahead of the main low.

Yesterday I mentioned that issue with the ULL/lower heights rotating west of the block. You know, the post with 15 arrows lol....Well, this is unfortunately the trend last night. This allows heights to really rise. Still, this far out we could see the 50/50 trend better and other things change. All options on the table, but that’s one thing I wasn’t a fan of. This ULL being there helps the ridge build better.

I’m not comparing the setups, but I thought the vort looked very similar to an underrated Philly storm. Jan 2011. Heaviest snow I’d here until March 18. gfs and 2011 both had these angry little closed shortwaves. It’ll be different in 6 hours, but...

My bad, this better?

Note the differences here. Euro is actually all southern stream, gfs phases NS in.

There was a nice back door shortwave that rotated near N NE from the 50/50 that helped hold confluence. Gfs and euro handle the south central Canadian ULL completely differently though, but at this range that’s to be expected. Great run improvements today

If we get shutout in the medium-10 day range I’ve not lost hope for early feb yet. Ensembles across the board in the Uber LR are showing lower heights (cold) on our side of the hemisphere. This pattern looks zonal, but imo it also screams northern stream flat wave/Miller Bs. I like this look for NE more than anything we are seeing over the next 7-10 days. This is supported across gefs, cmc end, eps. As tombo pointed out on our phillywx forum. Follow the height lines. Cold is finally directed towards us. This is a pure NS pattern. There’s also a hint of the block trying to rebuild, but we’ll see about that. This pattern would heavily favor NE over my area in Philly/MId Atlantic imho. I’m not fully crossing off the next 7-10 days, could see a low end event. I’m more confident towards end of the month if this holds. Sorry for the bad graphics it’s the best I can do lmao. *As pointed out on my forum mjo headed towards more favorable phase along with CFS showing AN precip with a very Miller b-ish look.

The flow just seems too zonal for anything substantial. A dusting-2” type? Yeah I could see that right now. Idk this zonal look has been showing up for a while. Might have to chase some LES when one of these NS waves rotates around the block