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Heisy

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  1. Heisy
    This storm relies on a complicated phase. You guys are in a great spot because WAA snow should hit you either way, but be careful tracking this one. Fasten your seatbelts. I just pray models are right with the phase job this is March 58 esque
  2. Heisy
    Heather A did a study where large east coast storms tend to form when there is a phase change from an ongoing pattern such as a -nao chanhgang to a positive etc. it’s not equivalent to Miller a or b
  3. Heisy
    There’s a met on the philly forum that has a rule about how it rarely snows unless the icon shows snow falling lol. It’s a good sign to have this model showing snow. The main takeaway from this run is there could be aN epic CCB somewhere.
  4. Heisy
    There’s nothing wrong with being excited while being cautious. There has never been a winter storm where we sat 6 days out and didn’t have worries over one aspect or another. The excitement comes from knowing that if things go optimally this event could be a ku.
  5. Heisy
    That 6z eps run was drool worthy. Looking at H5 and h7 that would have bombed and probably closed off in a really good spot for Mid atlantic
  6. Heisy
    Like forky stated earlier in this thread models continue to underestimate the blocks effects. Seems confluence is getting stronger each run. There’s even a New England streamer wave showing up On guidance (Ukie especially) Hopefully we get the right balance this time around. I’m more concerned atm for a messy evolution/south event than I am of inland.
  7. Heisy
    Yeah, that’s chase worthy plus we do well too
  8. Heisy
    Icon, hey tip you mentioned a 996mb low ripping it? Lol right on cue
  9. Heisy
    Yeppers my friend looks really nice 135, secondary forming
  10. Heisy
    Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much!
  11. Heisy
    You can say that again...even though the para is south it snows over Maryland for close to 60 hours lol.
  12. Heisy
    I forget which one it was, but one of those storms had the heaviest snow I’ve ever seen for a sustained period. White out and thunder for a few hours it was incredible.
  13. Heisy
    Weaker lead shortwave might be better if you want a bigger event imo that way gives time for main energy to round the bend without the mid levels getting blown too far N. Just looking at how gfs vs euro handle things and what could benefit us idk.
  14. Heisy
  15. Heisy
    Don’t hold out, post that ish
  16. Heisy
    Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol its still snowing at 192 wth!
  17. Heisy
    Ye was gonna post that. You don’t see it snow for 50+ hours straight that often haha. There is a signal for a 2 part system with waa and then a slow formation of the coastal, but too far out to know for sure. That was wild run though lol
  18. Heisy
    Wow, March 20 58 is almost identical, although it had a better ridge behind it. Very similar setup though
  19. Heisy
    Will you have a good site to look up old H5 maps? Plymouth used to have one but I can’t find it.
  20. Heisy
    We had 2 failed poyential events, it could be a lot worse. We could be staring at 50-60s, but alas we have another threat. Can’t complain at least something to track imo
  21. Heisy
    Gfs driving the boat? On which planet?
  22. Heisy
    True, it does show up on the guidance though, that lead wave can’t do it by itself with the confluence that strong and no ridging behind it. You kind of see hints of it on the cmc as well. Was just pointing it out as another way we could get screwed lol
  23. Heisy
    Lol, That’s the pattern changer though no worries
  24. Heisy
    Still, it’s in a good spot knowing how we’ve trended this year with confluence trending better and better recently
  25. Heisy
    Psuhoff, You know what’s funny. The storm that forms on the euro is actually from another pac piece that breaks off and rounds the base of the trough. Normally that lead shortwave would just take advantage of the cold, but no, it gets delayed and that other shortwave turns the corner and forms a major low, but by this time a loT of the cold is eroded.
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