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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Told everyone it’s precip over pa was wacky. It’s coming back to the rest of guidance. Going to be fun. Enjoy everyone
  2. Heisy
    It is amazing how it seems harder for us to get run of the mill 3-6” type snowstorm than it is to get 1-2 feet types
  3. Heisy
    Think Allentown best bet for me. Not that far really and is a better position if it forms a few ticks east than progged and they’re fine if it’s west
  4. Heisy
    Feel better about NAM? Lol I told you man I had seen this model misplace qpf my entire life basically i knew it was coming
  5. Heisy
    And March 58s snow map is very similar throughout New England. It’s a good analog imo.
  6. Heisy
    CMC should be nutty for someone in PA based on B&w maps as we expected. It follows rgem but isn’t always exact, like today’s 12z run where rgem was south and cmc farther N
  7. Heisy
    That doesn’t sound like they’re buying or not buying, but just pointing it out
  8. Heisy
    Gfs jacks Philly and east heh, had much stronger fronto precip
  9. Heisy
    Gfs looks a lot better for the city, but I probably sell
  10. Heisy
    I can see the axis go from Lehigh valley up towards NNj kind of like icon
  11. Heisy
    Ralph, rgem outlier? It has the axis in the same spot as the eps/euro doesn’t it?
  12. Heisy
    That’s not the issue. Its issue is qpf placement
  13. Heisy
    Icon shifted the heavy axis south
  14. Heisy
    Pottsville most likely but still got time, gonna wait for 6z eps and 12z NAM then leave. Rgem was unrealistically tucked earlier it just looks like an insane euro like run. I’ve bet against the other eps my last two chases and it burnt me badly
  15. Heisy
    Ralph you’re really just pushing all your chips on the NAM vs all Other guidance? this isn’t to say nyc region isn’t going to do great, but the NAM is a joke with precip over pa vs other models
  16. Heisy
    NAM is bs focusing on wrong PVA. Forcing goes east when it should Form on the trowal instead. It’s garbage ignore it. Itll Keep ticking west/south etc. I’ll say it to my grave rgem Is sick
  17. Heisy
    ?
  18. Heisy
    I’ll make last second call Tom around 9-10 but I found a motel in Pottsville, thoughts
  19. Heisy
    It’s occluding by that point
  20. Heisy
    18z ggem Yeah, that’s 100mm snow gradient west burbs of Philly. 4 feet? Lol overdone but highlights the ccbs potential
  21. Heisy
    20 years of following the eta and NAM model. Run after run during big snowstorms. I’m not saying nyc region isn’t doing awesome in this storm at all, what it did for pa and nw sections is a joke that’s all
  22. Heisy
    It’ll be completely different in 6 hours
  23. Heisy
    Wouldn’t trust the NAM until tomorrow. It’ll look all goofy and then a random 6z run it gets its act together. Happens all the time with this pos. All I do is use it literally as the storm is happening to get last second adjustments. Even then it sucks. The last December storm I chased I changed motel reservations because THE 12z NAM literally 3 hours before the first flakes shifted south and the max ended up going N of me.. I’d literally bet a cool g to anyone on this
  24. Heisy
    They only tend to verify inside the ccb, as we saw in December with 40 at bgm
  25. Heisy
    Yea that’s other option forgot to mention. I like west more than N
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