Heisy
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Everything posted by Heisy
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For my northeast Philly first call, (i always do%s until game day) 40% 8-12 40% 4-8 10% <4 10% >12
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It’s never final consensus. I mean we’re at the stage where we can start talking about totals, but it’s still early. On our forum someone posted discussion back from 2016. Just 48 hours out the euro didn’t crush the nw Philly burbs and finally as the storm was literally starting it shifted N
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You got the indies and control?
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Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion
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It kind of is similar to NAM with evolution where the h7 low is farther N once it spins near the coast you get the coastal ccb which rakes NJ
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It’s brutal out there even down here in Philly. Cold windy sunny days are the worst- 2,426 replies
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- heavy snow
- ice pellets
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While the precip location is good it did increase the confluence wave big time. Just had a stronger upper level low and PVA to make up for it
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What is wrong with 4+ 3+ days out? It just gives the general public knowledge of potential snow. Look at the models, no one knows. Euro could go even farther south at 12z while others have a foot. So idk. wish we could get a reasonable euro run today, if we do considering every other model gives us decent snow it might be game on
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We get a reasonable euro run today I think it’s game on, but this hobby is NEVER that easy. So I don’t expect that to happen. Maybe a slight tick NW?
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Outlier right now, will it be a trend setter or a blip, find out at 6z
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What a night
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Looks better I think right? More tucking the height lines
- 2,426 replies
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- heavy snow
- ice pellets
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Its been very consistent with that look.
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CMC doesn’t come out until 11, unless You mean rgem?
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Edit: Sorry SV maps overdo snow when it’s too warm so I never know how accurate it is for this model
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A lot of the Philly pros/posters migrated to phillywx.com FYI, that’s why it’s dead there
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Some of us are like that and others are like me, give me one HECS a winter surrounded by temps in the 60s. I track for severe storms, 3-6” are fine but at the end of the storm you’re always pining for more. Idk. We need a shift N at 00z stop the bleeding the main culprit is that shortwave near N New England, been trending stronger each run
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Wow, aggressive
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The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend
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I’m ok right now. Need this to start ticking back N. Big ones almost always tick north as we get closer so we’ll see. It’s a fragile setup but idk I got good vibes rollin. Worst case I storm chase Lewis de lmao
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Models really honing in on two maxes, there’s that heavy spot in the ccb and also the fronto magic you see towards C Nj, placement of those two will wobble around
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Did the cmc ever update?
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Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early
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This is more important, moisture influx, gotta keep an eye on it. As a Philly residence this run was a dream, but will it hold?
