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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly?
  2. Heisy
    Exactly. It’ll keep ticking each run, I’ll bump this later but I would bet before this storm happens the gfs has more snow on a suite than the euro for dc.
  3. Heisy
    There’s a huge signal right now for the fronto band to be perfect spot from around Trenton and up through nyc into SNE. you could see that blob on the eps as well highlighting that qpf max might be chasing up to you guys if this is what we see happen
  4. Heisy
    I agree, would be nice to get cmc or Ukie. Gfs just a bonus
  5. Heisy
    I feel like the NAM at H5 has been better at the ends of its range than it used to. It still sucks at qpf placement and amounts though. I just don’t see the crazy wacky runs
  6. Heisy
    Yeah I’d put the NAM in gfs camp. It’s a lot faster than 12z euro is
  7. Heisy
    Is this a troll?
  8. Heisy
    This is the control run not a mean.
  9. Heisy
    That was more of a pure Miller B. Basically just bowling ball that dove southeast out of Canada. This one I’d say is Miller a/b
  10. Heisy
    I posted it last week when people got all excited about the gfs showing that mirage blizzard. The gfs is currently ranked dead last at 120 hours. It’ll slowly coave to the euro like it always does. I only personally ever use it at this range to verify that a storm is possible. Once under 84 hours it’s okay. The JMA has better verification statistically than the GFS at day 5
  11. Heisy
    Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification.
  12. Heisy
    You guys focus on cutters way too Often, you have to keep your eyes on the prize, aka post cutter fun
  13. Heisy
    It’s not. The old weenie rule though is when it’s amped that’s a good sign.
  14. Heisy
    Psu will feel a lot better about that 6z control/eps run. The PVA and heights were better aligned for a capture.
  15. Heisy
    Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows.
  16. Heisy
    Can you post an H5?
  17. Heisy
    This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.
  18. Heisy
    Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore.
  19. Heisy
    I recall the euro kept putting those insane amounts in N VA around 180 hours out. It may have had a run or 2 where it was south because I remember sitting here in Philly worrying about being fringed a few times, but over and over the signal was there for ccb snows in that region. Wasn’t until the NAM came in range that snow chances increased into Philly burbs and nyc...this is two euro runs in a row with a heavy area over N VA let’s start a trend
  20. Heisy
    I don’t like relying on that late capture. That’s a complicated setup and just slightly different timing we could go from this run to crap pretty fast. I love the potential though. It’s very March 58 esque down in VA
  21. Heisy
    The 12z JMA is an example of a euro type run without the late capture
  22. Heisy
    I mean just looking at the euro verbatim if that energy doesn’t dive behind it probably doesn’t bomb like it did. Doesn’t mean no snow just not as much coastal love. The gfs is north for different reasons
  23. Heisy
    Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out
  24. Heisy
    This is practically a carbon copy of March 58 farther south
  25. Heisy
    This storm relies on a complicated phase. You guys are in a great spot because WAA snow should hit you either way, but be careful tracking this one. Fasten your seatbelts. I just pray models are right with the phase job this is March 58 esque
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