Heisy

Gfs close to showing a Miller B bomb next Tuesday. I thought this winter was supposed to suck technically it’s a hit for coastal region I believe

Look how far the low tucked west on the gfs down towards Delaware compared to 12z and that was one run in difference. This is how the gfs does it. It’ll catch up eventually. I’ve grown to the point where I just use it for longer range wave length ideas and storm potential, but specifics is Gd pointless

You see that lighter precip near Philly. I garuantee that ends up being sleet if that low ends up in that position, I still think philly can do 4-10 I just think 12+ is way overdon. Wait till NAM gets closer we’ll have a better idea

That looks overdone probably up to the city. More sleet would happen imo.

Still too early to call a win yet. I have a feeling 18z NAM delivers though for some reason

I’d say start between 12-3 wednesday

OT but the LR Christmas gfs setup looks almost identical to today’s H5. Pretty crazy. Check out day 8-9. Shortwave diving down which could form 50:50 with nice energy dropping out of NW

6-10 too bold on 95. Imo 3-6 hopefully

Icon is NW

What because of a meso model 3 days away? It’s not impossible, but common.

Still worth it

You guys helped me last times so I’ll ask where do you think I should head? I was thinking poconos

To me it’s pretty obvious the rgem is dead wrong. The major models disagree right now. Itll Shift Nw soon. The Max snowfall strip won’t be over or near the City.

This hobby sucks sometimes lol. Tough runs by the EE rule models at 6z. Drastically need a shift SE soon! I don’t want to chase to Pittsburgh lol

Haha maybe. The years kind of blend together. It might have been another Millville username who knows. Thanks man. I personally think center city philly ends up with around 5-6” NE 6-8”. Excited for a semi local chase though!

Hey bud, love your posts. I went to Cal U met program. I remember you posting back in the mid 2000s lol... I’m going to be chasing this storm out of philly. I wanna get a few spots picked out. Once you get up into PA you think I should head up NE towards that corner of the state or more westward?

I’d be very careful with the GFS. Not that I’m trying to be a Debbie downer, but almost always its surface reflection lags behind the upper levels. Still I think the answer lies somewhere in between guidance

Low seems to get up to just SE of cape may and then shoots literally due east from there between 78-87 hours

That’s what surprised me, but in SV you see why since ULL gets more tucked it slows down we get the back end. Idk if it’s counting sleet as snow though so no clue.

Wouldn’t sweat it. If by 00z tomorrow all the models show this then it’s time to write off philly getting more than 8. Even with this run though philly manages some front and back end i believe

Yeah kind of has more wrap around though. Not the solution you want for philly. Even the Max axis is pushed into NAM world

I love ellipses for...some reason lol

Exactly. You’ll likely only see those ratios where the best lift is and then the qpf is overdone and we’re at best talking 11-12/1...years ago I’d be telling my friends 30-40 is coming to E PA but I’ve learned through the years what actually happens when you account modeling issues. Philly is also going to have shit ratios if they get in that subsidence region. ..I think the snow early on will fall heavy in philly, then the best lift shoots to the NW and lighter precip will kind of be stuck over the city. It’ll be snow most likely, but 5-10 for philly is the best call right now. What you need to do is look for clues in the modeling a

Models always overdo qpf. I’ll let the pros answer, idk I just don’t see the duration with this one to hit 30.

Because the snow maps are likely wrong away from the deformation zone. I put 5 just in case mixing gets to city, and 10 if it doesn’t. It’s also based on history of how these storms play out