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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Wow, aggressive
  2. Heisy
    The biggest issue is that lobe of confluence that is trending stronger recently, that’s the main culprit of the S trend
  3. Heisy
    I’m ok right now. Need this to start ticking back N. Big ones almost always tick north as we get closer so we’ll see. It’s a fragile setup but idk I got good vibes rollin. Worst case I storm chase Lewis de lmao
  4. Heisy
    Models really honing in on two maxes, there’s that heavy spot in the ccb and also the fronto magic you see towards C Nj, placement of those two will wobble around
  5. Heisy
    Did the cmc ever update?
  6. Heisy
    Omg that’s so true. Unfortunately I remember the March 2001 one because the hoisted that pretty early
  7. Heisy
    This is more important, moisture influx, gotta keep an eye on it. As a Philly residence this run was a dream, but will it hold?
  8. Heisy
    Is it the handoff/transfer that’s causing the gap of light precip in SE pa, N de etc. seems that region is stuck between dying waa and too far southeast to benefit from coastal.... aka how much for philly?
  9. Heisy
    Exactly. It’ll keep ticking each run, I’ll bump this later but I would bet before this storm happens the gfs has more snow on a suite than the euro for dc.
  10. Heisy
    There’s a huge signal right now for the fronto band to be perfect spot from around Trenton and up through nyc into SNE. you could see that blob on the eps as well highlighting that qpf max might be chasing up to you guys if this is what we see happen
  11. Heisy
    I agree, would be nice to get cmc or Ukie. Gfs just a bonus
  12. Heisy
    I feel like the NAM at H5 has been better at the ends of its range than it used to. It still sucks at qpf placement and amounts though. I just don’t see the crazy wacky runs
  13. Heisy
    Yeah I’d put the NAM in gfs camp. It’s a lot faster than 12z euro is
  14. Heisy
    Is this a troll?
  15. Heisy
    This is the control run not a mean.
  16. Heisy
    That was more of a pure Miller B. Basically just bowling ball that dove southeast out of Canada. This one I’d say is Miller a/b
  17. Heisy
    I posted it last week when people got all excited about the gfs showing that mirage blizzard. The gfs is currently ranked dead last at 120 hours. It’ll slowly coave to the euro like it always does. I only personally ever use it at this range to verify that a storm is possible. Once under 84 hours it’s okay. The JMA has better verification statistically than the GFS at day 5
  18. Heisy
    Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification.
  19. Heisy
    You guys focus on cutters way too Often, you have to keep your eyes on the prize, aka post cutter fun
  20. Heisy
    It’s not. The old weenie rule though is when it’s amped that’s a good sign.
  21. Heisy
    Psu will feel a lot better about that 6z control/eps run. The PVA and heights were better aligned for a capture.
  22. Heisy
    Hmm, idk what to think. Almost looks like it missed the 12z euro phase with that energy up near the lakes. That’s a good sign that you guys are killing it even without that happening. Hard for me to know for sure though. The phase impacts Philly and SNE more anyway you guys can do well with this one even without that happening. It’s still only hour 144 though so who knows.
  23. Heisy
    Can you post an H5?
  24. Heisy
    This will continue to be the main question. Phased storms are not modeled well imo. I live in Philly but will chase wherever it falls so I have no skin in the game, but I’d feel very good if I lived in N VA right now.
  25. Heisy
    Even though it’s farther north gfs was long duration too. It’s definitely a legit signal hard to ignore.
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