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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    I wasn’t disagreeing either. Just adding. This July is looking to be very warm, possibly even record on average for Michigan, but the lack of record highs is not too surprising. Lack of strong cold fronts and warm nights is really what’s driving the warming trend.
  2. frostfern
    Crazy localized! Was it a backbuilding cell?
  3. frostfern
    Cruel tease. That cell backbuilt for a bit and had 60 dbz aloft. It had a lot of thunder certainly. I got a little gust front from the south and it got dark briefly, but the rain didn’t really fill in until it was well north of me, around 3 mile. I picked up .02”.
  4. frostfern
    I’m hearing thunder from a cell right over you. Good luck with this 10 minute shower. It will miss south of me but maybe an outflow boundary can pop another.
  5. frostfern
    I want it to be real, but it does look exactly like another video where the ball was generated by a pair of power lines. I can’t really see any poles though.
  6. frostfern
    What about the Great Lakes? A mean trough is usually no good around here if it’s just progressive cold fronts scouring moisture out. Need a fully stalled cut-off to plant itself over Minnesota or Wisconsin and pump the 70 degree dewpoints into here. Last time that happened was June 2021.
  7. frostfern
    I think the biggest reason those records are so hard to beat is the increased humidity. Modern agriculture with irrigation systems and a warmer GOM makes drought-driven heatwaves unlikely. July 1995 showed you don’t always need low relative humidity to break records, but that was a much shorter event driven by an unusual synoptic pattern that was ultimately transient. To get long-duration heat waves like the 1930s you need low RH.
  8. frostfern
    The north-to-south temperature gradient has been too baggy. Southern Canada warm, no big heat south. Thus no jet dynamics to force convection and keep it going through the night. We’ve had enough storm damage this year on this side of the state from the March 30 and May 15 events alone. I’m not begging for a derecho here, but it seems without a better setup it’s hard to get even garden variety rains.
  9. frostfern
    It’s even worse closer to the lake. I at least got a couple .25” in 10 minutes type showers the past couple weeks just east of GRR. It’s been hot enough we lose that much to evaporation every day though.
  10. frostfern
    Ratio of “thunderstorm chances” in the forecast to anything of note actually happening has been abysmal for a long time now here. Desperately need a Wisconsin MCS charging across the lake. Any time now. This afternoon popup garbage avoids GRR every single time. Trash climatology getting worse.
  11. frostfern
    This summer reminding me of 2018. Consistently above average temps but no extraordinary heat, no good cold fronts, lake shadow, little rain.
  12. frostfern
    The northern edge of that 90 degree heat bubble could get interesting.
  13. frostfern
    CAD summer.
  14. frostfern
    So boring…
  15. frostfern
    The ratio of actual thunder vs thunder in the forecast has been low lately over here.
  16. frostfern
    Yea. I meant in the brief periods the heat gets east of the Rockies, it doesn't really reach the Great Lakes. This year the upper Midwest has been persistently troughy and it looks to return to that pattern over the next week. I like this somewhat active pattern better than having a trough over New England that puts the GL in a boring "cool drought", but it seems hot and active summers are a thing of the past.
  17. frostfern
    Have to wait. There’s still a lot of CIN, but maybe the nocturnal low level jet breaks it. I’m guessing mostly garden variety, but with isolated hail or spinups possible given the shear. Don’t need a derecho IMBY.
  18. frostfern
    Miss south for Michigan unless the bookend peels north. Meh.
  19. frostfern
    Nudged enough N to get me excited.
  20. frostfern
    I got about 2" last night IMBY. For once I-94 got the screw-zone instead of I-96.
  21. frostfern
    The real ridge sticks to the plains most of the time the last decade or so it seems. At least in July and August.
  22. frostfern
    Fairly impressive local rainfall in GRR with this MCV. “warm advection wing” band of convection has been parked overhead for a while now.
  23. frostfern
    It's destabilizing pretty good behind the MCS wake over WI extending now over Lake MI.
  24. frostfern
    The best lightning was with the small cluster ahead of the bow. There were quite a few positive CGs estimating about 2 miles to my SW. The big shelf that rolled in from the NW didn’t have much other than soft IC rumble and moderate rain. It wasn’t surface based. I see the winds did penetrate to the surface some areas though.
  25. frostfern
    Stable surface layer saved me. The cell / cluster that formed out ahead of the bow meant business though. Continuous thunder with booming positive CGs going off like bombs off to my SW. I got a pretty big gust out of the south too. I was waiting for the main show to hit from the NW, but the shelf surged over with little fanfare. Stable surface layer definitely saved MBY this time, though still got a big branch down due to tree rot.
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