frostfern

There will probably be some kind of MCS or at least a leftover MCV drifting in from the NW along the stalled backdoor front Friday or Saturday. The models are all different, but a transition to NW flow will probably happen and that will favor a more organized MCS diving SE with NW shear. Likely sloppy seconds for the OV and completely miss southwest of Michigan though. Before that it's just a Florida pattern. I'm praying the lake breeze gives me something IMBY.

It looks like a Florida-type pattern, which is always full of localized 1"+ bullseyes and holes. Will need at least three or four days in that kind of pattern to get a soaking rain everywhere. Would much prefer an MCS that shares the wealth more, but that's really hard to come by this year. Really tired of backdoor cold fronts and dry easterlies. That crap is getting really old.

The west is definitely better than the east for the late evening to overnight complexes that roll in from Wisconsin. Wisconsin itself is even better though, but hard to drive around a lake. The other problem is the timing window is so small here. Too early and storms struggle over the lake and only really erupt again around Lansing. After 6pm they can go elevated more easily and survive the lake, but instability overall is waning. Central and Eastern Michigan used to get supercells once in a while, but the shear just hasn't been around in a long time.

I just don't get excited at all over temperature records and droughts... as opposed to actual weather. Might as well move to southern California if that's all we have to talk about these days.

Every once in a while there's a good one in late August or early September here. Spring and early summer has been dead for years.

2012 was wetter in Michigan. It was hot, but there were ridge-rider complexes. This year is looking like the worst ever.

Yea. Your way. There's always thunderstorms in Minnesota in the summer. I grantee here will be below average precip and boring as hell.

Feels more like a repeat of 2018 to me. Very warm on average, but no extreme heat or good severe weather due to "tropical" type airmasses from the GOM. No death ridge, no strong cold fronts, and boring moist-adiabatic lapse rates most of the time away from the high plains.

I notice there is now more thunder north of 45N. EML plume always heads for the arrowhead of Minnesota. Duluth is now a better severe weather spot. The screw zone is between 40 and 45, east of the Mississippi.

It's more like the ITCZ moved into Texas. Will have a climate like India where it rains in the summer.

Climate change has ended real thunderstorm weather in the Great Lakes. Instead we have the perpetual Texas to Alabama monsoon with a dry block to the north.

GRR missed a random EF0 spinup on April 10 though. Most tornado warnings in my area happen after the fact and not under a watch. It's always some non-supercell fluke spinup.

In 2010 May was boring, but I thought June/July 2010 was active, at least along the Michigan/Indiana border. I don't remember any big tornadoes though, just a couple really rocking derechos / QLCS type systems. I think there were some more significant tornadoes in Wisconsin.

If the sun comes out there might be some low-top popups tomorrow afternoon under the cold pool. Maybe a graupel shower. More like early November weather. This season has been so boring.

Sad. This is what typically happens here in Michigan though. Warm sector cut off and pushed south by upstream MCS. NW flow ridge-rider type events are the only good ones east of the Mississippi these days. These big wound-up closed lows are usually garbage outside the plains and deep south.

Weird to see Lake Michigan having a WARM moderating effect at the end of May, during the middle of the afternoon! Good lord!

Don't think last night can be classified as "statewide". Last time I heard thunder was April 10. The downpour last night was loud enough to wake me up, but rain is all I heard. Could have been a rumble or two that I didn't hear, but it certainly wasn't "significant". What limited lighting there was was almost exclusively north and west of GRR.

A good 1.2" of rain fell IMBY. Need to check if there is any water in the turtle-pond now. It was just mud yesterday.

People still don't understand what a tornado looks like when the condensation funnel isn't on the ground. Edit: Oops. Even the funnel is all the way to the ground and debris is obvious, yet some people still don't stop.

There is supercell potential in NW Wisconsin right now. The western UP too. Out of range for everyone but cheeseland though.

Opposite here. Busting low due to a band of clouds and worthless sprinkles. Knocked off 4 degrees from the 11 AM high temp of 85. Sitting at 81 now. It could recover a little before sunset, but probably not much as it isn't completely sunny anywhere upstream. Just hope there's enough instability left late tonight for at least a shower.

If its going to be a day of cold rain, I’ll take the 2”. Any less than 0.5” is just insult to injury. If the weather is going to suck anyways, why can’t we at least put a dent in the drought before the heat comes back.

Should have been paid in advance with December and January. Must be paying some exorbitant compound interest now.

“some rain for everyone” Hedging it. Need more than 0.25 to put a dent. Will get the miserable cold rain feel no matter what. Can easily get 4x that amount in 30 minutes with a warm sunny afternoon and a well placed t-storm, but probably not since this year is cursed.

You'll at least get storms with the Thursday system. Here is hopeless. Always garbage timing and/or lake shadowing.