frostfern
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Everything posted by frostfern
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In 2010 May was boring, but I thought June/July 2010 was active, at least along the Michigan/Indiana border. I don't remember any big tornadoes though, just a couple really rocking derechos / QLCS type systems. I think there were some more significant tornadoes in Wisconsin.
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If the sun comes out there might be some low-top popups tomorrow afternoon under the cold pool. Maybe a graupel shower. More like early November weather. This season has been so boring.
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Sad. This is what typically happens here in Michigan though. Warm sector cut off and pushed south by upstream MCS. NW flow ridge-rider type events are the only good ones east of the Mississippi these days. These big wound-up closed lows are usually garbage outside the plains and deep south.
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Weird to see Lake Michigan having a WARM moderating effect at the end of May, during the middle of the afternoon! Good lord!
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Don't think last night can be classified as "statewide". Last time I heard thunder was April 10. The downpour last night was loud enough to wake me up, but rain is all I heard. Could have been a rumble or two that I didn't hear, but it certainly wasn't "significant". What limited lighting there was was almost exclusively north and west of GRR.
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A good 1.2" of rain fell IMBY. Need to check if there is any water in the turtle-pond now. It was just mud yesterday.
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People still don't understand what a tornado looks like when the condensation funnel isn't on the ground. Edit: Oops. Even the funnel is all the way to the ground and debris is obvious, yet some people still don't stop.
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There is supercell potential in NW Wisconsin right now. The western UP too. Out of range for everyone but cheeseland though.
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Opposite here. Busting low due to a band of clouds and worthless sprinkles. Knocked off 4 degrees from the 11 AM high temp of 85. Sitting at 81 now. It could recover a little before sunset, but probably not much as it isn't completely sunny anywhere upstream. Just hope there's enough instability left late tonight for at least a shower.
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If its going to be a day of cold rain, I’ll take the 2”. Any less than 0.5” is just insult to injury. If the weather is going to suck anyways, why can’t we at least put a dent in the drought before the heat comes back.
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Should have been paid in advance with December and January. Must be paying some exorbitant compound interest now.
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“some rain for everyone” Hedging it. Need more than 0.25 to put a dent. Will get the miserable cold rain feel no matter what. Can easily get 4x that amount in 30 minutes with a warm sunny afternoon and a well placed t-storm, but probably not since this year is cursed.
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You'll at least get storms with the Thursday system. Here is hopeless. Always garbage timing and/or lake shadowing.
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Well, at least you have a chance of being in the warm sector later on this week. For me its ****ing over after Tuesday night. Models not showing much QPF so it will probably go through with no fanfare. Then its back to stuck north of the front with a northeast breeze like 90% of this goddamn spring.
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For here its lack of thunder period and not even good rain. Gray. Sprinkle here spinkle there. Shields are up preventing anything enough to be beneficial, but we still get the depressing clouds. Might as well be living in Scottland.
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ECMWF has some supercell potential Tuesday evening for MSP into northern Wisconsin. Wednesday the setup moves into Michigan. Could be something if timing isn't garbage. Way too early, but there isn't really anything noteworthy outside the northern plains before then. I'm praying the backdoor cold front on Sunday gives me some precip, but the instability looks to be pretty pathetic as typical.
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Good instability will try to nose northeast starting Tuesday, provided upstream convection doesn’t eat it all up.
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Lake shadow garbage that always occurs this time of year will make West Michigan worse.
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There were two very brief ones here in April, one with some small hail and another with a random unwarned F0 tornado/landspout. Nothing so far in May though. May was quiet last year too... but we at least had a couple stratiform precip events with the occasional flash/rumble thrown in.
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Not good here either. There were some showers today, but they barely wet the pavement. Everything more significant missed to the west. It's at least muggy... and weeds/underbrush in the spring greenup stage... so no fire danger ATM.
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Good instability and shear doesn't arrive until Tuesday, at the earliest. Before that there just isn't good mid-level lapse rates or shear, except for the far northern plains. Of course ECMWF and GFS disagree on the position and timing of of fronts / synoptic waves that far out, so it's impossible to tell where the action will actually be.
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I guess the pattern will change to something more zonal starting Tuesday. ECMWF has decent MUCAPE coming up the MS valley finally. Worried it will be a lot of whiff south for MBY though.
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Well, so long as it isn't dry to the south higher dewpoints can still advect north at night. Dryness is not 2012 widespread. Just need a front and low level jet to be aimed right for once.
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I'm hoping an MCS can ride in when the front finally sags down on Sunday or Monday. June is never a good month for Michigan drought-recovery-wise. LLJ and convection almost always stuck west.
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Good luck growing anything this year in Michigan. We are so screwed.
