frostfern

Its plenty hot here in Niles even with clouds. No lack of instability. Its just a stubborn cap or something. Lack of cumulus.

Im waiting near Niles. Hoping activity perks up over the south end of Lake Michigan.

Hope there will be supercell potential ahead of the fast crapvection blob in SE Michigan. Its too early for Illinois and round 2 will probably be too late in the day and too far SW to be worth chasing for me.

The tail end of the complex in northern Indiana has good rotation.

A mesocyclone embedded in a messy QLCS with hail potential is ugly for chasing. If there are discrete supercells somewhere ahead of the line it might be okay. I'd think there will be better supercell structure potential farther west, even if no tornadoes. I just don't know far southwest the secondary outbreak will be. Having to go all the way to south central Iowa from GRR will be a taxing. At least the days are long.

The EML plume had a pretty stout cap last night that did screw-zone areas on the southern part of the risk area farther west. It seems like there was enough additional moisture surging up the MS valley by morning for the complex to finally overcome this warm zone and drop south.

I saw Kalamazoo got hit with a ton of lightning. Nice 5:30 am natural alarm clock. Didn't know there was wind as well. Storm was lame here. Only 0.5" rain.

In my personal subjective experience, "dryness" is more of a comfort factor when the air temperature is below your body/skin temperature... say 75-95 degrees. When it gets to be 100 or above it's unpleasant no matter how dry. A 90 degree day in Denver isn't horribly uncomfortable compared to the same in New Jersey... but neither are anywhere near 115 in Phoenix. High dews are an annoying thing when the temperature is in the 80s, but once you get into the 100s it's more of a choose your poison thing. You might get heat stroke faster if it's 105 with a 70 degree dewpoint, but if it's the same temp with a 40 degree dewpoint you dehydrate faster.

I just hope the wealth is shared north and east some.

Overnight MCS will make me happy if it can just hold together long enough for a morning CG show. I haven't seen a single CG this year.

Boo. I want rain/storms and I want Euro.

Cool. I could see the towers way low on the horizon from here on the west side of the state.

I will chase if anything good is possible.

It can happen if all the trees die and drop their leaves. That's where it'll be by August here if this bullshit pattern doesn't change.

Lake MI Shield prevails once again. Typical with a weak-ass afternoon cold front. What happened to warm fronts? Not even one this summer. It's the only way to get precip here in the lake shadow.

Screwzone here again. Need a warm front to bring rain. Cold fronts never do it with Lake Michigan suppression.

It won't happen in June for sure. Nothing significant this year except dryness and boringness.

It's better than nothing, but afternoon pulse stuff here isn't really cutting it. Areas outside the natural terrain/like-breeze convergence zones are repeatedly screwed out of rain despite random thunderheads nearby every day.

I can't deal with low 70s dewpoints at any temperature, unless I'm not moving at all.

I bet there was a good view from out in the middle of the lake. Here the towers to my west were mostly obscured by anvil precip. Only a few drops made it to the ground IMBY though, along with the outflow breeze. A cluster of pulse cells popped up 50 miles to the east, which I filmed later in the evening. Gotta love the new Tampa Bay climo with easterly "trade winds" lol. Just wish the wealth was spread better.

Awesome! I slept through it.

I took some video and time-lapse yesterday afternoon. Heard soft distant thunder but didn't get a single drop of rain, just outflow. It was interesting how there was some westerly shear but storms were basically stationary. Low level easterlies cancelled by upper level westerlies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV-fjaLstpM

The sky was nice today with a lot of billowing towers and occasional distant rumbles. Outflow boundaries from small cells that popped up all around kept the temperature in the low 80s, but still barely enough rain to wet the ground IMBY.

Here it's Tampa Bay climo. Waiting for something to pop up. Whatever showers form will probably rain themselves out in the same location they formed. Virtually zero wind field today. Good setup for more 2.5" bullseyes with 0.05" 5 miles away... just like yesterday. There's enough instability for lightning if something can get going enough. Didn't hear anything yesterday as it was all pretty shallow showers.

The sun is out and theres a lot more instability today, but who knows where the showers will pop. Probably more lightning around today, but good coverage isn’t guaranteed.