frostfern

I like the 24th system on the GFS for Michigan. Would be even better if it actually phased. It's hard to trust anything in a split-stream pattern though. It will just keep changing with every run until within 12 hours.

I think it was 0.01" of "snow grains" combined with drizzle here. The garbage that falls from the most uniformly bland and dreary shallow low gray stratus deck.

Warm sector high wind boosting temperatures into the 60s at night like in December?

I really hate days like today. The annoying mix of snow grains and freezing drizzle was enough to cause multiple accidents delaying the commute time horribly. Yet precipitation amounts are so meager there's nothing to show in terms of any additional white on the ground. Don't know why the storm track is so far north despite not being a particularly warm pattern. Always get this cloudy "unsaturated DGZ" garbage in the "warm" sector of clippers. I'm ready for sunny arctic airmass after this depressing crap. An actual synoptic snowfall would be nice at some point.

13" max depth IMBY from combo of lake effect events last week has already shrunk down to 3.5". Probably less than half actually melted. It settled to 7" even before it got above freezing. It was mostly air.

I'm calling it 13.5" here.

It should get there eventually. Probably Niles will be hit harder, but a good dominant band can carry inland a bit more even with winds slacking off. The sun just came out here briefly. Flakes totally stopped.

This band is full of mesovortices.

Snow hurricane going over Holland.

Other than this lake effect the synoptic pattern has been garbage lately. Unless you happen to like the warm sector gales in December.

I think GRR is going to pass 14" for the storm total. The back edge is only a few miles to the north and creeping closer, but this current band is putting out a grand finale as it exits. 1-2" per hour rates. Big dendrites. Super high ratios.

Absolutely ripping again.

We had a couple weeks of decent snowpack last year in early February, but none of the events were bullseyes. It was all 4" events on the fringe of a 10"+ events missing south and east. They just added up because it was cold and didn't melt. Couldn't complain after a lousy December and January. Haven't had a LES event this good since 2014. 2014 was too good to be true though. It was like the late 1970s came back briefly.

Standard non-met weenie map trying to please everyone. Many nor'easters spells CAD west of Ohio Valley.

I wouldn't be surprised if any areas that manage to got clobbered in both the SW flow event yesterday and NW flow event today/tonight rack up some impressive 2 day totals. This is the best lake effect event in a LONG time here.

Closing in on a foot of depth and still ripping here in GRR. Feels good to be able to stop in and flex after such a long stretch of boring weather and covid hell.

Michigan moderate risk fail. Happy no power outages, but a big letdown. Not even any good lighting or rain.

The orientation isn't good for the derecho the CAMS were showing. zzzz....

It seems rare to get such widespread big totals in a midsummer month in Michigan. Usually it's just an isolated streak where a training event occurred. Widespread wetness seems much more likely in September, because that's when tropical systems are often involved.

I hope not. I was vaccinated in May. It seems like the low 70s dewpoints combined with wet ground and breezy conditions is doing it. The flowers are intense, but I also catch a whiff of swampy smell.

Anyone else notice how the air is unusually fragrant lately with all the humidity and rain? Both good smells and bad smells are really strong.

Where is my warm sector? Will be bummed if all this rain falls as boring stratiform shit.

Kalamazoo will probably have flooding if the current models play out, which is crazy considering how dry it was there only a little over a week ago.

It takes a few days. You probably see greening first happening in low areas where the water could pond. Sloping areas where the water ran off quickly are likely to stay brown. Same for places with little shade near hot pavement. Those are always the last to come back. That's the problem with downpours on top of dry soil. A bunch of the water runs off high areas before it has a chance to get deep into the soil. Gentle rains over several hours irrigate much more evenly.

Overlying month-to-date precip on the drought map as of June 17, the biggest screw zones are north central Iowa, most of Minnesota, NW part of Lower Michigan as well as the Thumb area. At least the holes in Illinois and Indiana had rain earlier in the spring.