frostfern

It looks like an active pattern with warmth trying to build north out of the southern plains once the weekend trough moves out. The GFS isn't really honing in a particular system amping though, so I don't trust it. GFS almost never amps the correct wave coming out of the SW US. Op ECMWF is amped early with more warmth but less moisture return. Ensembles are still spread all over. It looks like there will be a battle between spring and winter shaping up, but its not really within range as to how it plays out. No matter where the frontal zone actually ends up, a SW flow pattern will materialize at some point, which is more exciting than what we're having now.

In early April I can still suck it up. I start getting upset when it's still cloudy and stuck in the 40s and 50s in May. Just waiting for the blossom-killing torch/freeze cycle we seem to get every year in late April / early May. Would be nice to avoid that for once.

Diurnal timing has a huge impact this time of year. Pray the system is a little faster.

The general GL troughyness developing in the 6-10 period after a brief zonal pattern looks real though.... unfortunately. Wish it was just the OP GFS so I could throw it out. I'm over winter when "cold" is upper 30s and melting pellet snow. Only high elevation plains and far north still get proper big dog snows this time of year. I don't really understand season total stat nerds. Just can't get excited about stat padding. If it's no longer on the ground I just don't care anymore. Not even 6" of concrete will really excite me this time of year. Winter had it's last chance in March. It's over.

Looks like no thunder north of Dixie for the first half of April. I don't really see a snowstorm either. Just 40s and blah... maybe some 50s if we see the sun. Pretty boring... as usual for April these past few years. Can only hope for a pattern change in the latter half at this point.

It has always been bad IMO. It had a few good years, then it went back to its normal bullsh*ttery.

Kinda far out but March 30 could be interesting for IL, IN, and even southern MI. Need a deep low to get enough moisture north after this cold pattern though.

Under the right conditions shallow convection can draw down impressive winds. It is different to see this in a post cold-front environment as opposed to narrow frontal squall line with a bomb surface low. An odd situation for the midwest. These shallow cold-pool severe weather events happen more often in the Pacific Northwest with late season cold upper lows spinning inland and interacting with stronger afternoon surface heating.

The early January lake effect was the one major snow event of the winter. Only thing it had going, but that pattern didn't persist. Otherwise it was a lot of CAD and a few nasty cutter wind storms.

Better now than in May.

The wind was kind of unexpected since most of the lighting and even precip was fading fast as the gust front approached. I could hear the roar and see the power flashes in the distance as it approached and had to scramble out of bed to bring loose things inside and unplug electronics. I think it was at least 60 mph.

Sick of winter honestly. I'm hoping for some warm days after next weekend. I'm hearing some spring bird songs today.

Maybe I can reel this one in. Im thinking it will be 4” tops at 8:1 though.

Are there temperature weenies here? I think most of us only care about snow. Jan and Feb were consistently below freezing with fewer thaws than normal, but there weren't many extreme events. There was no brutal cold outbreak and the only major snow event was a localized lake effect event. Nothing memorable at all, despite being a typical cold winter.

It's already weak.

Looks like one good lake effect event is all we get this year. Lots of clippers missing north and all the big dogs missing south. A big wet slop is still possible at some point but deep winter is over.

Not this year.

zzzzzz…. same BS as always.

Well yea. It's hard.

Maybe they are jaded because it always snows in their back yard. Some of them kinda dismiss events that aren't bullseyes for GRR itself. Lake effect is always lowballed in the grids too.

I agree. I just find it fascinating. Wish I had studied it in graduate school but I got stuck doing tropical meteorology.

I think there's even more factors. Southern stream synoptic events always have a fairly deep saturated isothermal layer below the DGZ while clippers have a very thin one. That isothermal layer seems to favor chunkier plates as opposed to spindly dendrites. They just don't form large aggregates the way pure dendrites do. You still get a lot of bigger aggregates mixed in within the heavier bands, but the abundance plates falling at the same time fills in the air gaps and lowers the ratios even so.

I would take that, but even GRR is now saying the GFS is overdone and going with a lower compromise forecast for the grids.

500 feet of downsloping there.

You mean orientation change.