frostfern

Virga touchdown.... 5... 4.... 3.... 2.... 1....

While it isn't a bullseye IMBY, this storm has the perfect distribution to spread the 1 foot or more snow depth across almost all of the Lower Peninsula.

It's pretty common here IMBY to miss both t-storms and major lake-effect events by 40 miles or less... over and over again. Often close to the action, but have to chase to actually get to it.

Don't know if this current one being so big is going to suppress the next though.

It's like spring-summer frustration with the t-storms. Missing the bullseye by 10 miles and getting a nothingburger doesn't usually happen in the winter.

It's nerve-wracking being right on the northern edge of this thing. Sharp cutoff somewhere between MKG and GRR. Already got 2" of new powder from light snows last night. I'll be happy if this next batch can drop a quick 6 inches. Depends on how fluffy it is. DGZ is plenty deep if a nice back-edge band sets up as the system wraps up tonight.

Finally.

About 2" from yesterday evening through last night. Long duration light dust. Not overly fluffly like the last snowfall. More just powder. The main back-edge defo-band tonight should have bigger flakes... hopefully. Bright sunshine now in the break between waves. Weird that the other side of the lake is stealing all the lake effect this year.

I can see the thumb getting good totals despite being further north. Lake Huron influence will amp up the flake size.

Well, long range now is more than 24 hours lol.

That it's a long-duration event with two periods of light snow might pump up the numbers. If they clear the snowboard after every inch you might end up with a sum of 4", even though it's only 3" additional on the ground at the end.

I'm calling 3" here total in GRR on 0.2" liquid. Hope I bust low. I just don't buy that it will be super high ratio. Will probably be mostly small flake dust as fringe synoptic events tend to be under cold conditions. Lake influence areas will get better flake size and fluff.

I think the main source of uncertainty is over the the North Pacific. It has good potential to trend NW if it comes off the Southern Rockies strong. The pattern won't really be the same anymore over North America since the cold dome will be modifying some just because they days are getting longer. Models just aren't sampling the source region for the upper jet streaks diving down the west coast very well. It's not really an issue just affecting one model. All of them have been sketchy lately at long range.

Only far SE Ohio is at risk of mixing. Track hasn't shifted that much. It's just potentially sharing the wealth more on the NW fringe.

Well, if it can go strong nagative tilt and not lose energy to the coast it can throw a defo-band pretty far west. Everything is so up in the air now that the track keeps changing even with the next event. Exhausting.

Snowing pretty good under the back edge. Might add a little more if the lake band makes it inland with the arctic front.

Heavier burst here now. I think there might be a Lake Huron connection going on. Elevated easterlies coming in.

Does anyone have the corresponding maps from the Euro and Ukie? I'm blocked by the paywall. I think the jet buckling like a whip is the key to the weenie run being closer to reality. It has to do with the evolution of the speed max diving down the Pacific Coast. If that speed max slows down the eastward progress of the longwave trough, there will be enough northward rebound behind the departing OV system to produce a deeper more north tracking low. The longwave trough effectively splits in two, and the low can ride up in between. The problem is if that streak doesn't dig down enough to hold back the western end of trough, the whole thing will just slide east, leading to weaker more positively tilted system that gives the OV more snow but misses IL/MI.

1.5" here. Has the consistency of lake effect, but steady light snow rather than showers. Lost 3" on the total depth just due to compacting under the sun yesterday though.

Depends as much on a favorable jet streak alignment as the wave emerges onto the southern plains. If it doesn't deepen fast enough it will miss south again.

Probably won't know until late Monday. Same old.

How about we melt the snow with a nice dry sunny stretch first?

Light snow, but decent flake size.

Waiting for the Euro to stop being trash though.