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frostfern

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Everything posted by frostfern

  1. frostfern
    This year Lake Michigan is upping snow totals on the Wisconsin side more than the Michigan side.
  2. frostfern
    Seems like something will happen. It's just a matter of what and where.
  3. frostfern
    Suppression is better for the southeastern forum. You'll have the possibility of a better low to dump in the OV, maybe as far northeast as DTX. Just Alek and me will get whiffed.
  4. frostfern
    An occluded mess with a big-ass dry slot shutting things off early. Most of the moisture is shunted east.
  5. frostfern
    I this case the farther NW solutions are weaker, quicker, and less phased. The optimal big dog phase location is a whiff southeast for me. Just can't win.
  6. frostfern
    We're seeing a trend to a nothingburger.
  7. frostfern
    Oh boy. I'm as excited about spring flooding as I am about getting covid-19. Cursed thread. If it's a side effect of a good spring t-storm outbreak fine. Snow melt flooding is about as exciting as hemorrhoids.
  8. frostfern
    Southern zones do better with the long strings of weak waves... a big system will change it over to mixed garbage. Being way north of the average storm-track in this pattern I'd prefer a big-dog event to getting repeated fringe dry 1" accumulations. Being greedy though.
  9. frostfern
    Very high ratios become possible with temps in the teens, but it depends on way more variables than just surface temperature. Lake influence almost always fluffs up totals. Pure synoptic events tend to be denser most of the time, but sometimes really good dendrite growth conditions happen in a band and you get something like last night.
  10. frostfern
    Euro has trended a little more west on tracks 16th and beyond... but at this point I'm just jonesing. There's too many waves to know which one will really cut.
  11. frostfern
    Long range has been looking good forever, then they become nothing as time approaches. It was the 12th, then the 14th, then the 16th, now the 18th or later. Rather just be surprised by something.
  12. frostfern
    Narrow FGEN bands can sometimes squeeze out what limited deeper moisture there is, but it will be 50% shallow lake moisture.
  13. frostfern
    Chicago stealing all the lake enhancement this year. ZZZZZ.... IMBY.
  14. frostfern
    I can see places like Gary, Indiana getting dumped with a deformation-band / lake-effect combo. Widespread snows look meh. Boring on this side of the lake except far southwest corner maybe.
  15. frostfern
    That dendrite aggregate stuff has a knack for sticking to things despite being dry. Also piles up perfectly on benches and deck railings, provided the wind isn't too strong.
  16. frostfern
    Don't know if mother nature is more offended by premature storm threads or you calling her a b.....
  17. frostfern
    New southern meso has developed a nice eye. Coolest thing ever.
  18. frostfern
    There are two meso-lows now. Northern one is dissipating while the southern one intensifies. Southern one now has an eye.
  19. frostfern
    You are close enough to the lakeshore that a mesolow can make landfall and dump. Small area south of Grand Haven may get crushed if it moves east. Don't know if it will though. There's an easterly land breeze pushing the band offshore on the north end. Seems pretty stationary. GRR is way too far inland. Even if it were to move east it would dissipate.
  20. frostfern
    Stunning offshore mesolow. Like a mini snow hurricane. One of the cooler things to see on radar.
  21. frostfern
    This is really cool...
  22. frostfern
    Mesolow band offshore from Holland is absolutely dumping over the lake. Too bad it isn't moving inland. Frustrating.
  23. frostfern
    18z was garbage, but 00z is at least looking more like the ECMWF. Will probably regret staying up to see it tomorrow morning... but whatever.
  24. frostfern
    The problem is the more non-boring weather and weenie model runs we get, the higher the expectations get. It's like heroin. Dammit.
  25. frostfern
    Or just wait until the event is less than 48 hours out... Usually at that point you can at least know whether the waves are going to phase and blow up into a legit storm or remain a strung-out dud. Can still get screw-zoned with last-minute track-shifts though.
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