frostfern

Ridge is delayed a few days now. Tuesday cold front looks stronger and wetter maybe. I think when the ridge finally builds it will have soupy humidity with it... so nasty heat index values. Mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints and low 90s looks more likely than triple digit heat.

I finally did good. Parts north and west still didn’t get anything though. Waiting for the rain to the west. Hopefully it at least gives the lakeshore counties a good soaking. Hope it still has convection late. MCSs typically become stratiform by morning with such weak shear. There’s a good low pressure with it so maybe it will hold together despite skinny CAPE and weak shear.

Slowest moving MCS ever over Lake Michigan. The lake doesn’t need anymore water. Such a tease.

There was lots of thunder here, but it was almost all soft rumbles from the middle part of the cloud. It don’t know what it takes to create a lot of CGs. I kept watching the rain shafts for big strikes but they never came. Just flashes and soft peals.

Well it finally rained good IMBY. 0.8” at least with a string of training cells. Still pretty hit and miss though. Hope the bigger MCS to the west makes it here too.

Nice isolated storm inland from Ludington. I cloud see the tower blossoming up through the haze from here. I thought it was much closer. It seems like storms can pop up closer to the lake there because there's significant hills. Southern Lake Michigan is surrounded by flat so it's hard for anything to pop up.

I think there will be SE diving ridge-rider MCS activity at some point. The problem with this stagnant pattern is the showers don't move very fast. They pop up in one location and rain themselves out, so instead of a 0.25" spread over a general area you get an inch falling over an area of a a few square miles and nothing nearby. I notice a lot of little mesoscale micro-climates with a pattern like this here in Michigan due to slight terrain differences. Storms like to pop up near Jackson and Ann Arbor because there's a slight ridge there. There also some pretty high terrain west of Cadillac in the northern lower peninsula that's been getting showers almost every day. Low areas and areas too close to bodies of water miss most of the time.

Good. Maybe there will be a chance of ridge-riding complexes turning right / driving SE into the heat. I'm so tired of this hot dry pattern with the jet up in Canada and organized convection confined to the northern border.

Funny how it didn't even rain enough to get the pavement completely wet here, yet 3 miles away it rains an inch in an hour. Pin-prick-sized stationary lake-breeze shower lasted 40 minutes. Surprised there was no thunder. There's a lot of moisture in the air, but it only comes out in one small random location. Lots of places are very very brown.

Yea. We got some of those in late May this year. When there was easterly flow during the blocking pattern there just wasn't enough moisture for anything to pop up. No easterly, but today winds were virtually calm and a pulse shower (no thunder) due to the lake breeze dropped an inch of rain at the airport. I'm only 3 miles away and there wasn't enough to completely wet the pavement. It just sprinkled a few huge drops of rain. With dewpoint near or above 70 showers that form are super efficient precip-generators. The problem is they form in one random place and don't move.

Yea. The rex-block really dried out the eastern great lakes. The block has finally broken down, but the jet is still too far north to propel any Wisconsin MCS into the Great Lakes. Light westerlies with little shear and no nocturnal low-level jet is a dry pattern for me.

I never said that. Just that the pattern sucks and it's getting dry here too, especially north of I-96 and east of 131 where the June 26 MCS didn't give much rain. It's frustrating seeing Wisconsin hog all the rain and thunder with this airmass popup pattern. It's not as dry as the eastern side of the state yet, but that's mainly just the fact that there was quite a bit of rain June 9 - 11. Since then it's been getting dryer and dryer here too.

Okay, but i's not the greatest year here either though. It's not full drought yet, but still boring as hell if you want t-storms. 2018 repeat. Have to wait until late August to get one of those good low-level jet-fueled nocturnal MCSs. On the east side of the state you at least have a shot at some afternoon storms. Here Wisconsin afternoon stuff inevitably eats shit when it hits the lake, and night stuff dies too with no low-level jet due to constant weak-ass synoptic pattern. I remember when heat waves used to have nocturnal convection. Recent times they have nothing but airmass shit that gets totally suppressed by lake-breezes.

Western Michigan is being lake shadowed to hell though. I can see it getting extremely dry if we don't get a single damn thunderstorm. These constant weak synoptic conditions with light west wind don't give any rain on this side of the lake.

The lake breeze clears out dust and pollen but increases invisible ozone. If you're sensitive to ozone the lake makes it worse. It tends to have less pollen and dust though if that's what bothers you. It's kind of a choose your poison thing. It's not as clean as an ocean sea-breeze because the smaller volume of the inversion-trapped marine air can collect more and more pollution over time. Stagnant high pressure is causing high ozone levels near the lakes. There's some trapped fireworks smoke around as well.

Little circular outflow boundary still exists even though the convection is pretty much dead now.

There was also a tiny cell over the GRR airport this afternoon. Black cloud base drifted right overhead, but the rain shaft only appeared once it moved off to the SE of me. I heard about two claps of thunder as it slowly moved away, but not even a single drop of rain fell IMBY.

Same happened at GRR. Little backdoor cooling off Lake Huron and a thin cirrus canopy around mid-day wasn't enough. Lower dews allowed it rebound late in the afternoon once full sunshine returned. It briefly hit 90 between 5pm and 6pm. From here on out the only event that could possibly thwart a long streak of 90s will be random thunderstorms. I don't think the coverage will be widespread enough tomorrow, and wednesday through friday look so hot that it may hit 90 early, so even an afternoon storm/outflow probably won't get in the way.

I don't think it's going to get to 90 here today either. There's definitely some kind of very weak back-door cold front here that the models didn't emphasize enough. The easterlies brought in an airmass that's a few degrees cooler and also a few degrees dryer (dewpoints dropping down into the lower 60s). There's even some pop-up storms in the far SW corner where this little weak backdoor front is converging with the lake breeze.

Well, a lot of places will need a good rain, especially the southeastern part of the state. 2012 was very very dry into August. There was a derecho around the 4th, but it missed most places to the south. There was spotty severe weather (some large hail), but significant rainfall was scattered at best.

The problem with only looking at deaths to estimate the true infection rate is it ignores changes in behavior. In general older people are being more cautious. It's mainly 20 and 30 somethings going to bars and parties. These are the main super-spreading type events. In Lansing close to 100 cases were linked to a single freaking bar!!! While the initial infected are mostly mild cases involving young people, when the amount of community spread reaches a certain threshold, older people will be involved again and death rates will climb again. Many vulnerable people still have to work and shop and they will come in contact with careless spreaders. Also not that not all non-deadly cases are "mild". Even people in their 20s who never required hospitalization say it was the worst illness in their life and nobody even knows how long certain problems last. Many people still have symptoms after 2 months!!! Even people who were never hospitalized!!! Many people never know they had it, but others become ill for a protracted period of time. It isn't a brief illness like the flu.

Hope models are wrong. There is an annoying tendency for the ring of fire to skip Michigan completely. No guarantee it will even rain here significantly any time in the next week. Nothing sucks more than a dry cold front after a scorching heat wave.

It seems Lake Michigan has already warmed to the point where it's adding humidity to the air. The wind switch from easterly to northwesterly added a decided amount of humidity without knocking the temperature down much at all.

It seems a little dryer here today compared to yesterday with a better east wind again. Don't know if there was a little bit of a backdoor coldfront push as it's actually little cooler as well. It's only 86 whereas yesterday it was already 90 at this time. Maybe it's also the band of high clouds overhead right now throwing the forecast off, but I don't think it will reach low 90s today, even with lower dewpoints. It was annoying how the very weak lake breeze just seemed to add humidity without really cooling it off at all the past couple days. Dewpoint somehow managed to creep up to 70 in the narrow little lake breeze convergence zone, along with low 90s temps. Heat index was definitely worse than forecast due to lake breeze.

Illinois has always had more general summer convective rainfall than Michigan and it's a sharp gradient right near southern Lake Michigan. I think maybe the gradient has shifted a little from being more NW-SE oriented to NNW-SSE oriented. For instance, northern Wisconsin may be getting more thunderstorm days while NE Ohio / SE Michigan / SE Ontario are getting less. I wish I could look at the data to confirm this though. It just the mid-summer pattern though. Increased stratiform precip in every other seasons has caused a general increase in precipitation overall. Also, infrequent but very heavy rain events associated with tropical moisture may be becoming more common and this can easily cancel any drying trend due to decrease in continental ridge-rider type MCS activity.