frostfern

Should have been paid in advance with December and January. Must be paying some exorbitant compound interest now.

“some rain for everyone” Hedging it. Need more than 0.25 to put a dent. Will get the miserable cold rain feel no matter what. Can easily get 4x that amount in 30 minutes with a warm sunny afternoon and a well placed t-storm, but probably not since this year is cursed.

You'll at least get storms with the Thursday system. Here is hopeless. Always garbage timing and/or lake shadowing.

Well, at least you have a chance of being in the warm sector later on this week. For me its ****ing over after Tuesday night. Models not showing much QPF so it will probably go through with no fanfare. Then its back to stuck north of the front with a northeast breeze like 90% of this goddamn spring.

For here its lack of thunder period and not even good rain. Gray. Sprinkle here spinkle there. Shields are up preventing anything enough to be beneficial, but we still get the depressing clouds. Might as well be living in Scottland.

ECMWF has some supercell potential Tuesday evening for MSP into northern Wisconsin. Wednesday the setup moves into Michigan. Could be something if timing isn't garbage. Way too early, but there isn't really anything noteworthy outside the northern plains before then. I'm praying the backdoor cold front on Sunday gives me some precip, but the instability looks to be pretty pathetic as typical.

Good instability will try to nose northeast starting Tuesday, provided upstream convection doesn’t eat it all up.

Lake shadow garbage that always occurs this time of year will make West Michigan worse.

There were two very brief ones here in April, one with some small hail and another with a random unwarned F0 tornado/landspout. Nothing so far in May though. May was quiet last year too... but we at least had a couple stratiform precip events with the occasional flash/rumble thrown in.

Not good here either. There were some showers today, but they barely wet the pavement. Everything more significant missed to the west. It's at least muggy... and weeds/underbrush in the spring greenup stage... so no fire danger ATM.

Good instability and shear doesn't arrive until Tuesday, at the earliest. Before that there just isn't good mid-level lapse rates or shear, except for the far northern plains. Of course ECMWF and GFS disagree on the position and timing of of fronts / synoptic waves that far out, so it's impossible to tell where the action will actually be.

I guess the pattern will change to something more zonal starting Tuesday. ECMWF has decent MUCAPE coming up the MS valley finally. Worried it will be a lot of whiff south for MBY though.

Well, so long as it isn't dry to the south higher dewpoints can still advect north at night. Dryness is not 2012 widespread. Just need a front and low level jet to be aimed right for once.

I'm hoping an MCS can ride in when the front finally sags down on Sunday or Monday. June is never a good month for Michigan drought-recovery-wise. LLJ and convection almost always stuck west.

Good luck growing anything this year in Michigan. We are so screwed.

A week out there is promise.

Well, in recent years there have been tropical remnants in early June. 2018 and 2020. I think the 2018 remnants was actually very late May.

High latitude blocking would help at this time of year. Need some zonal flow for once.

Tuesday is the only real shot of rain for Michigan with an elevated warm front, then the death ridge builds. I will get lake shadowed to hell with a ridge SE of me. Energy coming out SW-US trough misses NW, typical trend. I fear things will go brown here even before the leaves are totally full. NWS is underdoing high temps too. It think it will hit at least the upper 80s over the weekend before the front finally sags in from the north around Memorial Day.

Models trending slower and more west with the trough axis as I feared. Michigan might as well be a desert.

I don't remember being affected by the heat as a child. I was skinny and didn't really sweat. I got bigger after puberty, and only then started not liking heat. I remember the basement flooding in September the same year, but I don't remember the heat so much. September was extremely wet for some reason that year. I think it was hurricane remnants tracking through.

Greenland block in summer can sometimes mean an active pattern though, which would be good. Without any high latitude blocking low pressure systems in summer tend to head up into Canada and the trailing cold fronts come through dry. Blocking in conjunction with a SE-ridge-favorabe MJO would be the best for drought mitigation here in Michigan. That is if it can lead to a stationary boundary oscillating just N or S of I-80. The fact that it's late May rather than June means the front might still stall too far south to make me happy though.

Dissipating cutoff ejecting from the SW US will probably bring some summer-like humidity. Problem is even if that does take a path into our area, it will probably only trigger hit-and-miss diurnal stuff, concentrated wherever the lake breeze sets up. Hardly a drought breaker if there isn't a more substantial system later on in model-uncertainly-land. Also the cutoff shown hasn't even formed yet over California. If it tracks too far west we'll end up hot and dry.

The Euro changes every 3 runs. Neither is reliable at this point.

Clicking 9 days ahead, GFS has got me down. Once in a lifetime, a t-storm will come around.