luckyweather

for sure. I would have called it if it were my job. that said it fell apart basically the next scan after the one I posted.

Storm motion is right through the middle of Peoria. @janetjanet998 aren’t you home based in Peoria?

LOT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Initial concerns continue to highlight the growing cluster of convection now crossing from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois as of 1pm/18Z. The primary question is now focused on how far northeast surface-based convection can reach to and then extend into the forecast area. Latest CAM/WoFs guidance has been rather consistent with the longevity of more robust convection lasting through our area for areas south of a line from La Salle County through the southern Chicago metro. Rapid destabilization is ongoing through the warm sector given an unusual and unexpected amount of clearing across much of Illinois with this type of dynamic system (nearly 70F all the way into the Chicago metro). A subtle surface moisture discontinuity extending ESE from west central Illinois has become a bit diffuse early this afternoon, but is gradually lifting northeast and closing in on our far southwest CWA. Near term guidance supports a rapid erosion of MLCIN into the aforementioned area of our CWA concurrent with convection arriving from the southwest (~3-5pm). Therefore, the likelihood of true surface-based convection entering our CWA has increased early this afternoon. Severe weather parameters favor all severe hazards, including an inherent risk for strong tornadoes with any fully surface-based supercells. The greatest risk initially favors into the southwest CWA, but if the storms can keep pace with the northeast moisture transport, we need to keep a very close eye into east-central IL through the southern Chicago metro.

Was flying in to ORD for a 5pm arrival from Vail, UA/ATC now holding back our departure 3 hours. Not a clean flight path through or around. Bummer, was looking forward to getting some shots of some of these storms from above.

that’s such a crazy number. just checked and they are having a just average season. coincidentally I actually summited Mt. Baker last August. Pic from the Easton Glacier, my wife and kids ahead of me. 10/10 would recommend. was the warmup for Rainier tentatively in July. we had just navigated through some beastly crevasses, I’m the heaviest so I held up the flank to get us through them.

not in the sub but Alta in Utah just cracked 700” on the season and Mammoth (CA) is now over 800”. Absolutely incredible winter in the Wasatch and Sierras and it’s still got some wind left in it.

Just looked back, nice hit of nostalgia. Lot of old names I had forgot but remember well. Got to wonder what happened to so many of them. Weather interest was an unhealthy obsession for some, others lost interest, some banned (just noticed wisconsinwx got banned last September, wonder what that was about), and unfortunately some have passed away. But not weatherbo, will never forget the search party that was sent up for him.

In the spirit of board unity he’d be welcome to ride with me and michsnowfreak through the gradient. We’re all weather buddies at the end of the day.

that gradient, wild. if that verified i think I’d have a hard time not driving through it with the windows down just to experience it.

I was observing the same thing yesterday afternoon driving up for a few hours of skiing from the stateline to Tyrol Basin west of Madison. It wasn’t until just south of Madison the ground went from bare to snow covered. Madison did well though, roads were partially ice/snow covered out of town, and Tyrol has excellent coverage, including in the glades where they’re purely relying on natural snow. Not a great pic but illustrates the coverage under that lift line in the woods. On the other hand, Friday night, Alpine Valley and Wilmot had a parade of ambulances in and out. The rain they got and subsequent refreeze was taking people out every 5 minutes. I heard there were at least 5 ambulances in 3 hours at AV, Friday nights there ordinarily are pretty quiet.

beggars can’t be choosers

looking like a toasty morch on tap lol

EPS weeklies showing greenland block at the end of the run, hopefully get some sustained bud killing deep freeze conditions to bring us well into March. brrrr

I’ve been buying the ski Wisconsin passport the past few years. They start selling them around Halloween/Thanksgiving (never a consistent date), you have to watch and be quick, they usually sell around a max of 500. This year they sold out in a few days. $150-$199 and you get around 20 lift tickets to most hills, including all the hills around the stateline. Little Switz, Devils Head, Cascade, Alpine, Wilmot, Christmas, Nordic, LaCrosse, etc. The only notable missing is Granite Peak. DH’s ticket price last weekend was $78 so you can see how quick you’re in the money with the passport. You should check it out this fall! Yeah Pierce is still no swimming. We get away with a little rebellion by stand up paddling the lake and then “oh no I’ve lost my balance I guess I have to fall in the lake and swim back to my board!”. Olson Lake in the park allows swimming and they recently underwent a big project to rebuild that beach.

Got all my moneys worth out of winter in one weekend. Ran the snowguns for the last time all day Thursday and Friday and built up my backyard terrain park base, should hold on until 4/1 regardless as to what temps get thrown at us. Got a couple fat bike to breakfast rides in on the snowmobile trail, fantastic conditions yesterday on one of the area forest preserves’s groomed xc trails, and went ice skating with my family on the frozen Pierce Lake at Rock Cut state park. Capped it off with an afternoon skiing Devils Head, fully open today, and made my way over to their double black run, Outer Limits and conquered it. That just leaves Warpath at Chestnut and I’ll have conquered all the IL/WI hills. The way it’s looking that one’s gonna have to wait til next winter. It sucks that true winter conditions have been so compressed, and I’m blessed that we got what we got last weekend here in northern Winnebago county IL, I’d have never got the xc skis, fatties, or ice skates out the whole winter had we not got last weekends dump and the following cold. Whatever happens from here I’m at peace with it. That said not gonna lie and say I won’t get some joy out of a palm killer style deep freeze in early spring.

guilty I do enjoy around -5 to 15 or so degrees a lot. I wouldn’t want to live somewhere like that all year but a couple good stretches like that in the winter months are thrilling for me. When you have a good layering system the cold isn’t much of a factor in comfort. Love when the lakes freeze over good and solid and I can get out and ice skate, don’t sweat as bad Nordic skiing, and it keeps the normies off the ski hills. As well, nothing better than a quiet winter mid day hike around 5-10 degrees. There’s just an entirely different vibe. Getting down below about -5 I get into the law of diminishing returns, harder to layer to stay warm, cars less reliable, harder on the wildlife, etc. I’m okay with not dipping down into the extremes too often but it is nice to get a -20 low every few years for a day or two.

Sunshine the past two days west of ORD has been a welcome change. Odds of a super volcano eruption this century (ice age inducing to some degree) are 1 in 170. Odds of a large/Pinatubo style eruption are 1 in 6. Volcanos may be our only hope for a decent winter at 43 north given how things are trending.

Kind of looks like Mannheim at the MMF

do you think tomorrow’s wind will create a multi hour ground stop at ord?

Mchenry county, IL abusing emergency warning system to send out a tornado warning style critical alert that their offices are closing early due to weather. Somebody needs to get their access to the system suspended. Edit: guess I’m not the only person who got them, Twitter lighting up:

Def high impact but I think that’s a little premature. I personally have a flight at 6pm Friday out of ORD and am getting pretty nervous but I’d be pissed if UA cxl’ed the flight at this stage. Tuesday AM I think is the earliest we’ll see any actual schedule changes if things stay steady as progged in short range window.

this would make ban 3 but who’s counting. didn’t realize forum rules allowed for making new accounts to evade bans.

Kicked off ski season at Alpine Valley yesterday in Elkhorn, WI, they were able to get 100% open with the cold stretch, looking more like January in Bavaria in this shot from last night than the reality of a pretty pleasant Wisconsin November night.

Team evergreen represent. Although iirc Cyclone was working on a redwood? I could get behind that.

This. Trend has not been our friend past several years. A little cautious optimism that we’re at least starting out differently. Justin Berk/ east coast tv met said this a few days ago: “Yes, I have a love for snow, but work hard to keep my bias out of my forecasting. What I have learned is that early cold often leads to a mild start to winter. So a mild start to November may very well allow that cold to build elsewhere and reach us when the time is right. “ Judah is Judah but worth noting he’s got some cautious optimism also with progged Ural blocking getting the PV going places.