luckyweather

Short range thread has devolved into a civil war vs Ohio. Sad times. Need a GHD 3 for unity and sanity.

Day 1, 2022 looking good.

Losing hope. The PV is staying locked up tight. Wanted to hate bump the wad posts from early season but I don’t think I’m going to get the chance. From Judah’s blog last Wednesday - below. Since then the progged cooldown has disappeared. The first path seems to be the inevitable outcome. What a waste of a season. I feel that we have approached a fork in the road for the winter. The first path is an overall mild winter with an ongoing T-S-T coupling that favors a positive AO, a strong stratospheric PV and relatively mild temperatures. We are currently entering a period that is an interruption to the overall mild pattern, it will likely last into the beginning of the year but much of January and February will be mild. The alternate path is that we are concluding our extensive mild period and the continuation of the mild period is being discontinued or disrupted by favorable placement of ridge/high pressure centers that in the short term is allowing the NH landmasses to cool significantly. But I do think for the relatively cold pattern to have longevity, it needs to involve the stratospheric PV either through a classical SSW or alternatively a stretched PV but in the former disruption, it would likely need to occur multiple times to have a discernable impact on the seasonal means.

get outta here!

That this is the year in play and seemingly a lock for latest measurable just sucks for a winter lover at 43n. December has been plain ugly. Still optimistic for the switch flip into 2022. GFS hinting at -nao and strong Greenland block, hints of PV disruption last week of the year, etc.

The Doppler on wheels fleet doesn’t really leave the plains and isn’t broken out for every event. May end up being that the current era of ef5’s are just storms with a Dow there to get a good wind measurement. Not condoning that as that’s going to just be a skewed/biased dataset, but it seems to be the way.

The low humidity cold airmass we had 12/5-12/7 was some fantastic snow making weather with 10-15 degree wet bulbs. I failed to take a pic at peak base but you get the idea with this pic from when I was laying it down. The past 18 hours have zapped it all away.

ban

This is actually a really interesting way to look at tornados and weather events, imho. It very well could have produced the highest recorded energy release of any tornado ever. In the linked paper below from 2007-2013 the tornado with the most total energy release is the Tallulah-Yazoo City-Durant tornado of April 24, 2010 with a total kinetic energy of 516.7 terajoules. TKE is a formula of length, width, and wind speed. I don’t think there’s an all time TKE ranking so for sure others likely had a higher TKE. For comparison a low end, relatively short ef0/ef1 would have a tke of 10-20 gigajoules. Average background atmosphere kinetic energy in settled weather would be sub 1,000 joules, so just an amazingly massive concentration and release of energy in a long, wide, f3-f5 like this event likely will end up being. A lightning strike is like 1bn joules of energy transfer, so maybe a prolific lightning event would end up with higher exchange of energy between cloud and ground. Be interesting to understand and rank the most energetic events. Would a derecho a la Iowa 2020 have more tke than a long track f5 monster? Ref (from 2015): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4489157/#!po=1.66667

rip Texas power grid redux

Punt to January seems like a sure bet at this point. It works. 2021 hasn’t been super good to me, might as well end on trend, and flip 2022 hard. CFS says wall to wall flip to cold to start January. Annual Mirabilis 2022.

Judah Cohen saying progged strong Ural blocking will indirectly lead to PV visits south in January. I’ll take it. Maybe we can get a big dog or two as it dips in.

I’d be down for geos to guest start a storm thread.

Suicide booth time

Seems to be the problem across the country. Mt. Bachelor ski area in Oregon closed their mountain bike trails early in September / October because of heavy early season snow, but the faucet shut off and they just postponed ski opening day. Beaver Creek ski area (down the road from Vail in Colorado) also just announced delayed opening day, had some nice early snow but now dry and they haven’t been able to make enough to cover their base area yet. I know two random anecdotal ski area openings does not a pattern make, but it does indeed seem the feast or famine undulations are pretty continental this time around.

is there any ground temp data out there? We talk about it a lot but I’ve never actually seen any hard data. Seems it would be useful to industry (albeit limited) primarily surrounding planting season.

not ragging, but to each their own. sounds like hell to me. mild and settled - blech. hot and humid, double blech.

Low of 30 / 79% humidity in NE Winn Co IL, fired up the snow maker for the first time this morning but couldn’t squeeze out a flake, wet bulb was right on the line. Early tomorrow morning should get it done.

Looks like he was a TV met here in the Rockford market. Don’t mean to offend the Mets here but I thought these days TV mets are more likely j-school grads vs actual trained mets.

Thanks for putting the lists together. Based on your 2nd year Nina analogs, rooting for winter 21/22 to be another winter of the crow. Caw, caw.

Starting to see some hints the east coast ridge could finally break down late month.

In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now): The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30) Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck.

Tabloid quality forecast, I doubt this guys has any training, but it’s September so why not? https://snowbrains.com/direct-weather-winter-early-start/ Also Judah C touches PV going into early winter in latest blog: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Non zero chance Monday might crank out another 90 in RFD depending on fropa timing.