luckyweather

This is actually a really interesting way to look at tornados and weather events, imho. It very well could have produced the highest recorded energy release of any tornado ever. In the linked paper below from 2007-2013 the tornado with the most total energy release is the Tallulah-Yazoo City-Durant tornado of April 24, 2010 with a total kinetic energy of 516.7 terajoules. TKE is a formula of length, width, and wind speed. I don’t think there’s an all time TKE ranking so for sure others likely had a higher TKE. For comparison a low end, relatively short ef0/ef1 would have a tke of 10-20 gigajoules. Average background atmosphere kinetic energy in settled weather would be sub 1,000 joules, so just an amazingly massive concentration and release of energy in a long, wide, f3-f5 like this event likely will end up being. A lightning strike is like 1bn joules of energy transfer, so maybe a prolific lightning event would end up with higher exchange of energy between cloud and ground. Be interesting to understand and rank the most energetic events. Would a derecho a la Iowa 2020 have more tke than a long track f5 monster? Ref (from 2015): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4489157/#!po=1.66667

rip Texas power grid redux

Punt to January seems like a sure bet at this point. It works. 2021 hasn’t been super good to me, might as well end on trend, and flip 2022 hard. CFS says wall to wall flip to cold to start January. Annual Mirabilis 2022.

Judah Cohen saying progged strong Ural blocking will indirectly lead to PV visits south in January. I’ll take it. Maybe we can get a big dog or two as it dips in.

I’d be down for geos to guest start a storm thread.

Suicide booth time

Seems to be the problem across the country. Mt. Bachelor ski area in Oregon closed their mountain bike trails early in September / October because of heavy early season snow, but the faucet shut off and they just postponed ski opening day. Beaver Creek ski area (down the road from Vail in Colorado) also just announced delayed opening day, had some nice early snow but now dry and they haven’t been able to make enough to cover their base area yet. I know two random anecdotal ski area openings does not a pattern make, but it does indeed seem the feast or famine undulations are pretty continental this time around.

is there any ground temp data out there? We talk about it a lot but I’ve never actually seen any hard data. Seems it would be useful to industry (albeit limited) primarily surrounding planting season.

not ragging, but to each their own. sounds like hell to me. mild and settled - blech. hot and humid, double blech.

Low of 30 / 79% humidity in NE Winn Co IL, fired up the snow maker for the first time this morning but couldn’t squeeze out a flake, wet bulb was right on the line. Early tomorrow morning should get it done.

Looks like he was a TV met here in the Rockford market. Don’t mean to offend the Mets here but I thought these days TV mets are more likely j-school grads vs actual trained mets.

Thanks for putting the lists together. Based on your 2nd year Nina analogs, rooting for winter 21/22 to be another winter of the crow. Caw, caw.

Starting to see some hints the east coast ridge could finally break down late month.

In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now): The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30) Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck.

Tabloid quality forecast, I doubt this guys has any training, but it’s September so why not? https://snowbrains.com/direct-weather-winter-early-start/ Also Judah C touches PV going into early winter in latest blog: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Non zero chance Monday might crank out another 90 in RFD depending on fropa timing.

240 hr Euro was showing strong Greenland block for around the end of the month. Optimist in me says the trend is your friend. Pessimist says we’ll blow the goods before it’s time to use them and bring out the suicide booth gif for yet another brown Christmas.

Normal last 90 for RFD is 8/22, latest ever was 10/9. Today was nearly certainly the last 90, finishing at 31, unless there’s an October surprise lurking beyond the extended.

Cells kept forming/reforming/training over nw Boone county this afternoon, second time this week that’s happened, I’ve watched the towers build nearly overhead in nw Winnebago county and then basically train over Boone / mchenry county. Certainly a coincidence but made me wonder what right here is causing the localized forcing

Seems like 30 is a lot, but after checking, 30 wouldn’t break the top 10 for RFD. Now 5 days past the normal last 90 (8/22). I bet we end right around 30 for RFD. https://www.weather.gov/lot/90_degrees

17” in 24 hours, broke the old state record by 3”. Reading some of the accounts of how fast some creeks rose - unimaginable to me. One person was in a building 400’ from a creek that they said had never left its banks and within a minute was at roof level standing on things to gasp for air.

Losing 2 minutes of daylight daily here at 43 degrees north as we’ve left the solstice in our distant wake, full steam ahead to the equinox.

I believe the president is in mchenry county right now, sitting US prez in vicinity of tor warned storm motion

Tor Warning for Winnebago County IL. At work in our Datacenter in Franklin Park, getting ready to head out and in that direction. Radar indicated rotation, amateur look at radar looks like the rotation is between Pecatonica and northwest of downtown Rockford, moving due east.