luckyweather

That’s a pretty incredible burn area for an unplanned uncontrolled burn. Climatologically, at least in epoch scale, tis the season. For the Holocene at large nearly every acre in the state averaged a fast moving burn every 3-5 years. From what I can tell most such fires were in the spring and fall during dry periods, usually sparked by lightning but sometimes by natives. Pretty rare post European settlement.

I think there’s a slice of people who take it seriously and are taking the key precautions to prevent spread, there’s a slice who are skeptical and begrudgingly take precautions when convenient or under social pressure but when nobody’s looking they do whatever, and then there’s a slice who either a) have somehow connected their rejection of the precautions / disbelief in the virus to their identity or B are just stubborn and it’s not an identity thing but a selfish small mindedness thing. I think all of the groups I listed above except the “identity” folks will take things a lot more seriously when an NYC style tent hospital has to go up in their Southern/Western/Midwestern city. KC is sounding the alarms now, ICU beds are also filling up there. Wisco is quickly spiraling and today’s rally should help amplify things in the south central part of the state at least. I think we are getting real close to the inevitable happening which I think will cause quite a few more people to change their mindset, maybe, optimistically, ahead of the potential Thanksgiving to New Years disaster that is looming. Chris Christie and his change in rhetoric as a result of him getting it firsthand I think is a nice example of what I think will happen when Joe Public sees the tent hospital and refrigerated morgue trucks along hospital lane in KC, Bismarck, Madison, etc. And if that doesn’t happen (the full ICUs), then those groups I listed are never going to take it seriously unless it hits them personally. But I think it’s happening. Now. Next 10 days. We will see.

I appreciate that you’ve converted your temp to F for us uncultured Americans ;-)

That’s where the “I’m moving to Canada” is rooted in. This has been eye opening for me, I didn’t know how many self centered and myopic people were all around me, and how pervasive such mindsets are all across the country. As Hoosier said, buckle up as I don’t know where this goes but I don’t think it goes there quietly and peacefully.

The US is a fantastic place to be born in and live in, comparatively to the rest of the planet in terms of overall well being. That said by really no meaningful measure is it the best. It’s 7th for GDP per capita, and it is #15 in one of the more data driven quality of life rankings. We have very productive land, abundant natural resources, a well educated workforce, and (arguably) a stable democratic government. None of those things should be taken for granted and fortunes can change quickly. The division and polarization plaguing the country right now I think is an existential threat to our stable democracy. I don’t have the answers but I hope our country makes it through this intact.

I got my snow gun set up today. Now to get my wet bulb temp calculating ability dialed in...

I just bought a snow gun. It needs 28 degrees to make snow. Hope I didn’t curse any chances at early season cold. https://backyardsnowstorm.com/store/Single-Train-Package-p111633528

No doubt it’s UHI and RFD is conveniently located to help genuinely to compare and contrast. That said, RFD proper is 5% the size of Chicago proper in terms of population (150k vs 2.7m). Assuming land area is somewhat linear then it really isn’t much of a comparison. This is a foolish, non science based comparison - putting that aside - with these figures you could say that for every 400k in population concentrated in an “area” the average temperature of that area will rise by 1 degree Fahrenheit, if building / land use is comparable (eg I would compare a million population third world city to a million population developed city as the amount of concrete will be wildly different). With that, RFD with its 150k population only raises temp by 1/3 of a degree F.

Pretty neat AR visualization of what the storm surge will look like in Lake Charles

I know you’re just making a point and I’m not responding to that in any way, but I thought I’d make sure we all know there’s more than one of us that use the snow. I use the hell out of it and would be up there with will and bo if my work would allow it.

I mean this (1993) was the storm of last century. This is a new century.

I don’t have a wx station, so no tangible data to share - I’m in NE Winnebago County and just my obs - the wind hasn’t materialized here. Gusty but garden variety gusty.

And there really isn’t a forcing mechanism so the region remains a desert, with all that moisture in the air. Turn on your heat, all the way up, to 90. Once the bathroom is hot, turn on the shower all the way to hot, keep the door closed. Once your hot water tank is just about empty, go in there, and tell us how it felt!

Thank you for sharing the list, I will definitely remember that if I’m ever up that way, you can peak bag in NY, never thought of it. Great way to spend your summer, keep at it, let us know once you’ve finished them! Last summer I hiked up Mt Silverheels, an otherwise not noteworthy 13er in Colorado. I had rented a cabin in the middle of nowhere and you could see it from the cabin and so I figured out the name of the peak and found a pretty easy route on AllTrails, it was a pretty easy peak to bag as far as 13ers go. I learned it’s name is in tribute to a dancer who took care of ailing miners on that peak during a smallpox pandemic. Since the pandemic hit this year I haven’t been able to stop thinking about Silverheels. Almost forgotten but a reminder that while this is our first pandemic for just about everybody alive, it’s certainly not the first.

Very nice! Whiteface has some legit, out west style big mountain backcountry skiing when the snow is in. Also where the lake placid Olympic downhill ski comps were held. I didn’t realize it hit that elevation. Not too far off in elevation from the big daddy in the weather world on the east coast - mt Washington.

I am in leadership for a B Corp. These are our ideals: * That we must be the change we seek in the world. * That all business ought to be conducted as if people and place mattered. * That, through their products, practices, and profits, businesses should aspire to do no harm and benefit all. * To do so requires that we act with the understanding that we are each dependent upon another and thus responsible for each other and future generations.

Coincidentally I also was 25 years younger then. That said - Rockford, 7/4-7/7 2012 is the hottest I can remember in my lifetime, with 105 on 7/7. I lived in west of STL until 20 and nothing I remember matches July 2012 in RFD.

KJ I respect elements of your zen attitude but also have to take issue with elements of it - when individual freedom and choice are at the expense of others ability to enjoy freedom and choice, I think a commitment to staying in ones lane/taking your position and sticking with it becomes less zen and more selfish. We’re (mostly) amateur weather enthusiasts who choose to understand more of the science behind the weather than our peers for the various reasons that make up our enthusiasm. When I saw the coronavirus thread pop up I thought it might fit pretty well given that it would be another very science oriented realm where we may take a little more of an educated amateur approach to discussion like we do the weather. Along that vein my contribution to the dialogue would be that in reading some of the recently published papers, the initial reluctance and conveyance that mask wearing didn’t matter was because all other known and studied coronaviruses to date were only spread when the infected was symptomatic. Only sick and symptomatic people actively spread SARS and the other studied coronaviruses. The medical and virology communities were quick to assume covid19 behaved the same until an overwhelming body of evidence started to show that for not entirely known reasons, a measurable percent of the infected are symptomless. Thus the flip flop on mask wearing recommendations, its as much to protect others from you in case you are infected unbeknownst to yourself as it is to protect you from others. We have this fierce contingent of our populace that embraces individualism and individual freedoms at all costs, with some reasoning that “this is what our founding fathers wanted”. First of all, that was 250 years ago, this is a wildly different planet now vs then, and second of all you’d do well to take a history class again if that’s all you remember - this American experiment and our statehood were and are about a lot more than individual freedoms. More so about each persons right to have the opportunity to thrive and be happy - not that you can do whatever you want. Mask wearing is more rooted in what we were and are about than your individual choice not to wear a mask. Just my interpretation and opinion. “Promote the general welfare” We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Probably not taking into account the likely strengthening to a category 5 monster as a consequence of its dwell time over the hot Mississippi River waters.

https://rivergages.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/stationinfo2.cfm?sid=DLDI4&fid=DLDI4&dt=S 78 degrees at dbq which seems way high, but Bellevue IA is 77, so I guess it’s right. https://rivergages.mvr.usace.army.mil/WaterControl/stationinfo2.cfm?sid=BLVI4&fid=BLVI4&dt=S

OT and you probably already know this but it was almost here already, southern IL/Memphis/the MO bootheel on down, everything there south is sedimentary deposition as the MS/delta just keeps building south. Highly visible on sat/terrain/Topo imagery.

only three weekends left until the solstice and the days start getting shorter.

A mid/late April 4-6” event here in N. IL during quarantine would make the short version of my life’s highlight reel. I’d break down and tell Alexa to play some Christmas music, bake some cookies, try to get out and ski the yard. Don’t get me wrong, I’m completely okay with 60s and sun, but if it’s gotta be 40s and gray, let’s go all the way.

Hit 58 on the slopes at Chestnut in northwest IL. Their base is pretty solid for the most part, about 3-5’ on most runs, but today sure was eating at it. This winter sucked, but it seemed like less rain events than the much better late half of winter 18/19, which kept the ski areas manmade snow in okay shape. Unlike the majority I will be the voice of dissent and say never summer, don’t want to see winter go.

A few snowscape pics from last night in Wausau, WI. Seems like all our posters these days with a few exceptions are from semi and northern IL. Central Wis got a nice snowpack replenisher with this system. Came up here powder chasing again and while the snow was a little wetter than I prefer it was buttery smooth to ski on.