luckyweather

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary. The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially, very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually, thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of damaging wind swaths.

pretty brutal situation in Colorado, granite peak in WI has a substantially better base than the CO Rockies resorts. My kids were doing unsanctioned pond skimming in the random ponds that were forming all over Vail last week.

cold air funnel on my bike ride just now. surreal atmosphere, pockets of dense fog at ground level, would ride through sections where it was like a space heater was blowing on me, and then flip to chilly.

I’ve been building a backyard terrain park for the past 6-7 winters and have a backyard snowmaking setup with two snow guns. I cover about 1/3 acre with a 24” base or so and then build a 10-12’ tall drop in and some big jumps. Have a couple box rails and some jibs and ramps. I usually start in October and then just fight it out with rain and warmups like the past few days trying to keep my base and then I start rebuilding, usually call it a season around March 1. My kids of course love it and it’s a family tradition but also all the neighborhood kids. Not a whole lot of kids learning to ski these days but that is absolutely not the case on my block. Every kid has skis or a snowboard so they can jam in the park all winter. Very proud of my little micro contribution of the next batch of winter lovers.

I'm only going to pay attention to Chicago Storm started threads this season. Have to acknowledge there's an element of magic ✨ in all of this.

getting some steady mood flakes at my office in River North

Hard to feel good about the trade off imby coming off a 14.1" snow season (RFD).

Hey man, I know you and the team are literally doing this unpaid right now, yet you’re still in there grinding. Just wanted to say I appreciate you, sincerely.

.46" rain imby in the early morning today. First measurable precip since .27" on 9/13. July's 8" and August's 4" are distant memories. I have two spring fed creeks nearby, they have slowed some but not much over this dry stretch, so the water table & aquifer is still doing okay.

89.1 at mdw last hour. so close.

Right at 1/2" here mtd, 0.0 for the past 10 days. heard thunder on and off all weekend it seemed like but your screw zone has engulfed me finally. 1-3" weekend totals all around me.

Closing in on a month of dry here, only 1/10" since 8/18. Everything started getting crunchy this week. Hail Mary conditional chance for a little training overnight/tomorrow morning, but if that doesn't manifest gonna get into the yellow on the drought map. Last several GFS runs showing a low breaking the ridge down next weekend but then has it coming back after, Euro isn't biting, ridge in place to the end. That early taste of fall might be all she wrote until October.

Nice. Was there also, only regret was not sitting up high, assuming you didn’t either we both missed seeing the last fireworks of the summer as he was wrapping up the show. Bears owner be damned Soldier Field is having a hell of a weekend. Prez be damned the city is having a hell of a weekend also, felt like the center of the universe with everything going on.

Saw turnpike troubadors at the salt shed last night. The weather made a really good show truly great.

Coming up on the 35th anniversary here in less than two weeks. 60mph gust from the outflow of a cell that clipped to the north, rainless, then picked up a quick 8/10” as it filled in. Second cell incoming now, also pretty gusty.

1.07” imby ne of RFD for the weekend, all yesterday. Been a lush summer here, no stretches of crunchy grass or dust yet this warm season. The corn out this way looks as good as you’ll ever see it.

just came off the Geitlandsjökull glacier in Iceland about an hour ago. Not quite as photogenic as banff but helped with the snow withdrawals

A couple of the recent LOT AFDs were issued by ILX including the current one. I haven't noticed that before, hope all is well at our local wfo.

was in Lake Geneva today, sky is milky white with the wildfire smoke, hints of burning plastic outside. bleh

Got about 1.5" in an hour west of Harvard. Still backbuilding to the west, might end up with around 2". Some of the gusts just now flattened some of the surrounding corn to the degree there's definitely going to be some yield issues.

Rockford Ironman tomorrow is going to be brutal.

That blessed stretch where Oak St beach might as well be Waikiki.

mjo moving phases and ssw incoming. potentially more active, cold, and stormier around here (chicago) later into March. (am a weather dummy also, hopefully the professor is proud but prepared for my lashes)

I go to DC annually to visit privately with most of the IL congresspeople, I’ll be in DC in two weeks and am going to hammer them on NOAA/NWS. Like him or hate him Rep Bill Foster has built his brand on being the pro science voice of Congress, going to be particularly interested to hear his take.

unlikely wx related if the wing is missing. passenger probably bumped the wings fall off toggle switch.