luckyweather

a tale of two mondays. got RFD at 61 on one and 105 the next.

Oshkosh WI

on cue starting to light up in the watch box in NC Iowa.

Got a little over an inch from late morning through early evening from the “pulsey splatty” (LOT AFD’s words, not mine) mini train that brought 5 distinct cells with heavy downpours NE of Rockford on the WI border.

a year ago for compare and contrast fun:

Anecdotally it does semi track with reality though. I’ve thought to myself a few times not too far north of RFD when Cyclone has posted a 90+, “hmm what a difference a hundred miles makes”.

Tornado warned cell about to cross the IL/WI state line into Mchenry County. My wife was driving to an event in Lake Geneva and heard the warning on old fashioned FM radio.

Same. Non measurable sprinkles northeast of Rockford over the past 3 days.

Passed through IL-94 a few hours ago from Dallas City, IL to Carthage, IL, 20 miles of apocalyptic destruction. Most trees were down, all homes had roof damage, many imploded grain bins, some grain bins crumpled in random fields and pushed off the road by equipment to re-open travel. Most electric poles laid down or split in half. Most corn pushed down flat. I’m not talking about a mile stretch, the entire 20 mile route was total destruction. Seems pretty certain extremely strong winds were present at the surface as the derecho pushed through that area.

N. IL truly has been a rainless paradise. I haven't been watching the temp grids too much but between your reports and Cyclone's reports west of me, I can deduce we've also been in a pretty sweet spot in the gradient here in N. Central IL. The most pleasant spring in my lifetime. Farmers likely not seeing the beauty in it. This is the slowest start to corn here I've ever seen. Most years the old "knee high by the 4th of July" has been more like "knee high by the 4th of June". Nothing knee high here yet, some late planted fields have barely emerged.

LOT: Confidence continues to rise in a much-needed pattern change Sunday onward as zonal to northwesterly flow becomes established aloft and opens the door for numerous upper-level shortwaves to propagate into the Great Lakes. The net result will be a return of regular chances for showers and thunderstorms (e.g. every few days), rising humidity levels, and moderating temperatures. It`s still a hair too early to talk specifics about timing, intensity, and coverage of showers and storms next week, though at least parts of the area appear in line to receive much needed rainfall from Sunday onward.

I have a feeling we'll have to pay in arrears for this. 105 degree days in October on tap.

Northern IL crop situation about to transition from annoying but periodic drought to a more severe, generational type situation if we don’t get rain in the next 10-14 days or so.

I joined the board because of the OG Morch. You were a prolific poster back then under another name. I thought you were a trip but not in a bad way. As a cold lover you get on my nerves when you start jonesing for spring but seeing this I get it man. Never change.

gonna head up to Madison to Tyrol’s June Jam tomorrow. Pic from last year, they said they have significantly more snow this year. At least an acre of coverage. I’m not sure how they keep it at Tyrol but usually hay and/or sawdust will do the trick. A-Basin in Colorado closing this weekend, but it was snowing there today. Still got about 11 minutes of day length to pick up, but it’s almost over. Less than 19 days til they start getting shorter.

“Not to hijack your thread” Proceeds to make 5 successive replies on Toledo’s average mean temp in a historical drought thread. [emoji848][emoji848][emoji848] I remember as a kid in the 80s seeing several segments on the local St Louis area news about various shipwrecks being exposed as the Mississippi and Missouri rivers all but dried up.

Showing 7/10” imby, my netatmo rain gauge usually runs a little lower than reality so probably closer to an inch here as well in far northeastern Winnebago county IL.

Oak is my favorite. Always do a summer weekend in the city in late summer when the water temps are just right and spend a chunk of a day on Oak st beach. Small, crowds aren’t too bad, and not as chaotic as North Ave beach (although North Ave can be a good time depending on the crowd). Miami like vibe with the city behind you and water in front of you.

Flash drought mentioned in LOT AFD this morning. That’s a new one for me.

Prairie fires were more common in the fall pre-settlement but certainly happened in the spring if there hadn’t been one the prior fall. Pre settlement large expanses of the plains and Canadian prairies could burn pretty much in one big go. Fires of a scale simply unimaginable and unprecedented in modern times. So while post settlement wildfires are certainly bad for life and property, they aren’t a new phenomenon and actually much smaller scale than they were before man’s impact on the land.

~50 days until days start getting shorter

Very true. Part of the give and the take at this latitude.

Pic from Krupps in Twin Lakes this morning.

752 ACUS11 KWNS 041954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041954 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-042230- Mesoscale Discussion 0457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...northeast Iowa...far southeast Minnesota...and southwest/central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041954Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the 22-00z/5pm-7pm CDT time frame. Large hail, damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes appear likely through this evening. A watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Some uncertainty remains regarding how far north the surface warm front will advance across the region through this evening. Most guidance suggest the boundary will lift into far southern WI by this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface low across western/central IA in the next couple hours. Storms will track northeast near, or to the cool side, of the northward-advancing warm front. This will likely result in most convection remaining elevated, though a couple of storms could become rooted in the frontal zone across northeast IA or far southwest WI. The storms that can ingest better quality low-level moisture and vorticity along the boundary will have a better opportunity to produce a tornado. However, current thinking is that convection will largely remain elevated. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear will support supercells. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg and large hail will be possible. Fast moving storms, coupled with strong deep-layer flow also will support some damaging wind potential. A relative max in severe potential will exist across southern portions of the MCD where at least some chance of near surface-based convection will exist within the warm frontal zone. With northward extent, overall potential will gradually lessen. A watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 42419421 42639424 42909410 43609329 44059229 44159170 44359055 44278942 44168904 43898880 43638873 43048877 42538916 42438961 42499184 42419421

Getting diverted to Omaha (was inbound to ORD), pilot was trying to fly north but said we were going to run out of fuel with the route ATC wanted us to take.