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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Here are the Kuchera and 10:1 maps:
  2. Carvers Gap
    Is that for the storm only? The problem I am seeing w/ some of the maps is they include 1-2" of total snow from tonight and Friday. I have the map for the storm, and it isn't close to that.
  3. Carvers Gap
    For western and middle forum areas it is 4-5 inches of snow near the MS River and 2-3" of snow to the Plateau w/ diminishing amounts as one goes eastward. There is a lollipop over TYS, but the rest of the eastern Valley gets 0.5-2". Kuchera is probably a bit more. But that run was rough compared to where it was a couple of days ago. Very close to tracking just a brief, intense snow band for the eastern 1/3. Hopefully we see it look a bit better during the next couple of days....but the system is trending w/ less precip w/ each passing run.
  4. Carvers Gap
    It is important to take the snow off the ground from the two systems this week(tonight and Friday). Once one does that, most of the eastern valley is blanked by the 18z GFS. TRI has been blanked for the past two runs. The previous snow on the ground makes those runs look better than they actually are. The anafront dies after it comes across the Plateau. For TRI, right now we are chasing a cold front and not snow.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We really just want a powerhouse cold front it that is the case. Off the top of my head.... Tap the GOM....any kind of lift...intensity of the cold behind the front...speed of the front....and then have it slow down as it goes over your area...
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is an anafront. That is a 2020 redux. Hopefully, we see it strengthen as we get closer. Nino systems are often over performers
  7. Carvers Gap
    I was about to ask. TYS has recorded a gust to 55mph. I know that is on the exact opposite side of town, but that is howling!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    I was looking for convection along the GOM...
  9. Carvers Gap
    To tag along to a post in the main thread, and for when we go back to look at these from a historical perspective. The Little Pigeon in Gatlinburg is just about out of its banks. Sirens were sounded.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The EPS (control) is much more aggressive than the ensemble. Normally, they looks super similar at this range. The MSLP mean and precip is also more aggressive than 0z. This might be a case where the operational is much weaker than the ensemble.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, both the Euro and CMC leave the door wide open for another system to follow 3-4 days later.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I think it was '94(John remembers this winter much better than I do)...it was just nastiness. We had ice and snow. The interstates were snarled as it stayed cold long after the storm. I had water in my apartment as the rooftops were damming water behind ice. I remember chipping ice from my car. I shattered, and I thought is was my rear window breaking out. Just a brutal pattern. This may have a lot of that in it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    We noted yesterday that modeling is infamous for losing storms in the day 5-7 range, and them sometimes getting them back. I suspect this is about to be a Miller A and we are seeing some sort of transition from an anafront to a coastal. Models kind of have one foot in one camp and one foot in the other. But yeah, a long way to go.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I could be wrong, but that looks like an error. We normally get ice if the cold is already in place and settled into the valley. Maybe the lower level cold advances that quickly, but I doubt it. '94 kind of had that happen in Knoxville though. I don't remember the sequence. It was a sloppy mess. The problem with tracking these so far out, there are just wild swings with almost every run.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro was MUCH warmer....lost a lot of the cold air - washed out. I don't know if that is because we have a SLP trying to back the flow along the coast. However, the Euro was slower almost right off the bat. But the trend all winter has been slower and weaker for many storms. Tricky to get a forecast from that trend w/ systems.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Maybe. LOL. The GFS and Euro both weakened the system, but the GEFS and GEPS beefed up. Let's see what the EPS does. Probably still an ensemble driven forecast at this range.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I am saying that is why the trough goes in the West so often despite decent teleconnections at high latitude. I though that was the question.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Well, to clarify....it is an ice storm for E TN. That isn't exactly a nothing burger. Sorry.
  19. Carvers Gap
    So the Euro is a mess as was the GFS. Models are trying to sort out blocking over the top, potential for a coastal low to pop, and strength of the front. Outside of NW TN, that is just a cold front passage. That run was a nothing-burger for most. The stronger hp is almost shunting the system eastward. I would look for that front to be stronger as we get closer to the event.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That is bad, man!
  21. Carvers Gap
    At 144, HP is stronger over the top.
  22. Carvers Gap
    This "should" be a little more suppressed, but similar to 0z.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Euro is rolling. I am not sure what slower and slightly more northerly is going to get us regarding the energy coming onshore in northern California at 111...but we are about to find out.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles are simply a blend, kind of like a music ensemble group made up of a French horn, trombone, baritone, flute, bass, violin, and cello for example. When I post an ensemble mean, it is several perturbed members (they tweek the 12z run multiple times, and then run the program) averaged together. Above, I posted the individual members of the snow ensemble. Sometimes the mean can be skewed by one huge, outlier run or there could be multiple perturbed runs which support the mean. Above, there are several runs that support the original operational(or deterministic run. That likely means the deterministic is more credible if the ensemble supports it at this range. The deterministic runs are the GFS and CMC...they have one shot to get it right. The GEFS and GEPTS are compiled of multiple perturbed runs....At longer ranges say outside of 4-5 days, the ensembles are often better. Inside of day3-4, we start to rely more on the deterministic runs. This is important, at day 5, the deterministic is for all intents and purposes just one of the individual ensemble members.
  25. Carvers Gap
    -PDO
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