Carvers Gap

Well, it would appear that summer is about to get hot about during the timeframe when summer normally gets hot. I concur w/ extended summer outlooks going well into September and even early October. BUT, I am just a bit wary(more so than normal) of LR ext modeling right now. Nina "should" be hot and dry....sometimes really hot and dry IMBY. As John noted, some Nina summers are actually AN for precip. The Apps should be drier than normal through winter. BUT, I am losing confidence that modeling has this nailed down. Too much jumping around on operationals....really all over the place. I suspect the eventual net result will be AN temps for an extended period of time, BUT less than confident right now. This pattern almost feels like it will flip as soon as we go "all in" on hot weather. TX and Plains' heat ridge combo usually means we get very hot here. We'll see....

Nice downpour here this afternoon after missing multiple chances during the past couple of days. We have done ok w/ rain during the past month after a concerning start around parts of TRI. We don't have the big totals to our west, but it'll do for now. Looks like on-and-off rain chances for the next 7-10 days. Overall, it has been good "garden weather." That means not too much rain and cool(not cold) overnight temps along w/ warm days. I have found that slightly dry water amounts is 10x better than too rainy. This year I am working on watering less and getting plants to extend their roots downward more.

So summer did not start early. After a bit of a false start to summer, the pattern has settled back to a late spring temp cycle...nice days and cool nights. I fully expect summer to be hot, but the longer we can delay the heat...the less heat that we get. August and September (prob part of October) is certainly better than mid-May to mid October. The great thing once we get to mid September, at least the nights cool off.

I thought about putting this in banter, but considering it is a slow time of year, I think this maybe belongs here. For 5 years I have followed a super informative website in western Wyoming. I have shared some of it here from time to time. All that I knew was that he knew his stuff and that he had worked in the storm center in Oklahoma before retiring to western Wyoming. Well, it turns out...he was a a leader in the field of severe weather forecasting. He passed away last week, and I thought that I would share his wikipedia page in his honor. He had issued 5,540 storm warnings by the time he had retired. I am guessing some of you probably knew him. I had no idea. Check out the storms he worked: March 29,1984 Carolinas tornado outbreak. March 12, 1993 Gulf of Mexico to East Coast "Super Storm", including Florida severe weather. March 27, 1994 "Palm Sunday II" southeast U.S. tornado outbreak May 4-10, 2003 Central-Eastern U.S. weeklong sequence of tornado outbreaks and "round-the-clock" severe storms. February 28-March 2, 2007 multi-day southern U.S. tornado outbreak, including the Enterprise, AL tornado on March 1, 2007. February 5-6, 2008 Tennessee and Ohio Valleys "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak. May 25, 2008 Central U.S. severe weather outbreak including the "Parkersburg, IA" tornado. May 8, 2009 Southern Midwest "Super Derecho". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_E._Hales_Jr.?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR0J8nGPWTzy23qR_N9Nul3QSE8c3rZSnubi1fz4Tr_1ZMLu_r_4UB3Rlm4_aem_AV5RsuAKGTPpBCgxcsRglIpQAWCzgJoJwDMybpDcnLLiSdfrL0w6IvTXnrT1o1X-G9-iqkYTOMmeAL8Vyhhf2ogq

Check this out from Meade's quarry in Knoxville. Crazy. https://x.com/RickD865Vol/status/1794803131500380231

Southwest Virginia is lit up like the 4th of July.

Man, it’s HOT!!! Bring on the cold shot!!!

Definitely seeing the northern lights tonight. Pretty amazing. G5 solar storm - it was upgraded I think.

MRX just mentioned on social media a chance to view the northern lights.

I spoke with our catastrophic storm assessor (he was working my roof several years back)...he said he handled an EF-4 or 5 maybe in Indiana or Illinois years back. He said softball sized hail had been driven through the side of cars and into the side of the engine block(dents were evidence). State Farm covered 25-30K in damages for us (July 27, 2014) due to baseball and softball size hail. It wasn't wind driven, but it knocked holes in my gutters and lawn furniture. Hundreds of dents in our truck and van along w/ broken windows. It sounded like bricks falling on the house. Our chimney vent still have dents in them. It was the worst sound I have ever heard. You could hear the damage in the neighborhood as it fell. My sister's house lost their vinyl siding(due to hail) in that storm or the one a few year prior. So, heart felt condolences to the folks in the area where the large hail hit.

NWS-MRX is posting some photos now of the Morristown damage. Looks like 2-4" wind driven hail. And let me tell you from experience(not this year knock on wood), that sucks.

That t-storm complex damaged a school in Hamblin according to the Times-Tribune. NO injuries were reported though some students have had to be relocated as they assess damage. https://www.citizentribune.com/news/update-severe-weather-blasts-through-morristown-surrounding-areas/article_29233634-0d50-11ef-b9bd-87889de4b563.html East side of Cherokee Lake did experience golfball to baseball size hail.

I am not liking this.

Blizzard warnings in the western Plains of Montana.

You can just take it to the bank...when I put the warm season plants in my garden, it is going to head for BN temps. Just take it to the bank.

So, the cold snap in mid-Jan wiped out my grape vines(entire plant). I just replanted today. They were new, so they were more fragile....but man.

TRI finished with about 70-75% of normal rainfall for the month of April and +2.1F. Yesterday morning it rained. When I mowed by midday the moisture was almost gone on the grass. Not good to be BN normal w/ precip during spring. Hopefully, that turns around. Lately, ext LR modeling is really, really struggling IMO. That said, if one just uses ENSO state, wx patterns have been pretty consistent w/ a transition to La Nina.

SER land!!! I like it. We may have to pass this winter by tracking storms in the Mountain West.

It appears that summer is here. I don't think those Weeklies(which were cool) are gonna work out. Looks warm for the foreseeable future. Summer has started early, and that often means a VERY hot July-October. TRI is only +1.7 but it has felt much warmer than that. Late April to October is likely summer this year. Hope I am wrong on that.

In NE TN, most La Nina patterns are dry. With the IO and Nina potentially being out of sync, I am not sure what that yields in terms of precip here. It seems like some La Nina patterns have been soakers here, but lately, more dry. I do think the pattern might be much more variable than I had originally thought re: summer. I do think a good chunk of fall and winter will be much AN in terms of temps. I would suspect fall turns very dry. La Nina across our forum can produce quite different results.

I reactivated my WxBell account after a brief hiatus. LR seasonal outlooks are not showing a torch quite yet which is contrary to my thought process. Now, the warm spring fits La Nina along with BN rainfall. Next winter looks like a torch...no easy way to put it, but that is a long way off and things will likely change. That said, this summer doesn't look as warm as I thought. HOWEVER, if the BN rainfall continues(check regional airport to see if that applies to you or just look out the window)....heat will likely build into those areas.

Areas of frost possible tonight.

I do think for my winter ideas (24-25'), I am going to use IO forecasts as part of the overall equation, and give it fairly heavy weight. It has been driving the MJO during recent winters. IO/MJ, ENSO, and PDO will have the heaviest weight. NAO will have some weight, but it is nearly impossible to predict at this range.

I haven't looked at a forecast re: the IO this winter...so know that before reading these IO posts. The positive phase should peak during late fall according to this article. However, with La Nina in place, it does appear that having a positive IO and a La Nina is wrinkle that maybe I wasn't expecting. The positive IO(if it holds into our winter) would potentially suppress the warmer phases of the MJO signal. Now, my guess would be that area warms back up right as our winter hits. I do think that does raise the potential for a cooler last half of November and a cold start to winter. Then, as the IO flips negative, we get very warm in eastern NA. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole

An interesting read about Australia's upcoming winter - of course not ours as the hemispheres are completely different. There are some good nuggets about the positive IO and La Nina which might be a rare(?) combination according to the article. I don't remember that being a rare combo, but that is interesting if true. https://snowbrains.com/as-australias-el-nino-period-ends-australian-snow-fields-are-potentially-facing-rare-la-nina-positive-iod-winter/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2DJjuRqmpHuYt-GzTVh3qbq-p1vzI2RSuPR4qZdGP4BMZxIpnOyci1Rqc_aem_ASUlkc31A6QNB9K2ZkHNxOcQhU5jpJ3vKHsqEWTqpIe0lzl8t0a6gzw1HNpSq5mcae4SE-GnVb8O020ZJ-_HTbF7