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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Man. I love the happy hour 18z GFS. It rarely fails to entertain. TX to FL snow/ice storm on this one. Wow!
  2. Carvers Gap
    If you want to see a pattern flip...need to really pull for the 12z GFS as it is a retrograding pattern probably induced by the Scandinavian Ridge which basically forces the entire thing to reverse. Let's see if it has any model support. I think PSU noted in the MA forum that many of our best winter patterns are a result of a retrograding pattern vs one that just rolls forward. It is not quite there at the end of its run but watch the features over the Western Hemisphere. The eastern Pac ridge pulls north westward. A trough dives westward into the GOA. The ridge over NA is beginning to reform in the West. That look is supported by Euro seasonal models and the CFSv2 at times. I think one of the Weeklies runs had a similar look. Not sure the MJO supports any of that yet...Someone reming me, does the MJO lose its affect as winter progresses?
  3. Carvers Gap
    ...And sure enough, the GFS waa aay out there shows that as a possibility. The Euro seasonal was released this morning - I think(didn't look yesterday). Looks good for February. JB has some information on it....but in general the trough is reforms in the East. That fits nicely with a Scandinavian Ridge which we have talked about for a few ays and D'Aleo adds some nice commentary today about it. Bottom line, there are some real and tangible signs now that the NA pattern is about to shake-up. I can see a scenario where the pattern relaxes and the trough reforms out West. I can also see a pattern where the MJO is no longer a driver and the trough reforms in the East. It may very well be a replication of the Fall pattern which was record warmth to seasonal to very cold.. Final note: The 12z GFS does have a full latitude ridge which I think would revert to a western ridge and eastern rough. It appears to be a retrograding ridge(loose definition) and that also fits nicely with the Scandinavian ridge that HM has spoken about for a few days. The last snapshot would likely put the ridge out West, but also open for debate.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty significant changes to the ridge in the Pacific and with Scandinavian ridging...been on multiple models for several runs. The 12z GFS has displaced the center of AN heights to the point that I wonder at some point the model might replace it with a GOA low.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just for fun and not for verification purposes, take a look at the 0z GFS at 312. Look at the 500 anomaly, and then look a the surface weather under it. Pretty incredible.
  6. Carvers Gap
    With a ridge at 500 in that nation's mid-section at 300, there is a southern winter storm to our west. Message from the GFS, if we get a system that cuts to the Lakes with the incredible cold in Canada...it may well work under the ridge at 500. Going to be very important to look at surface temps in combination with 500 patterns.
  7. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has a big 1055 high in the Plains at 270. Might be a ridge at 500, but that is a COLD trough at the surface. We may enter a pattern in the middle of March where the cold works under the ridge at 500. Time for bed. That seriously makes my head hurt.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Some light snow falling IMBY.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Some tangible improvement on modeling today. Not going to mention all of it as it might revert and then my typing is just a waste of figurative breath. Thing to watch is when/if the trough lifts out OR rolls forward. Hint: Keep pulling for that Scandinavian ridge to be the real deal on the EPS.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Meanwhile, there are winter wx advisories up for the eastern mountains.
  11. Carvers Gap
    QBO has fallen to 1.66 from 5.07. That is a significant and slightly accelerated drop compared to the past few months. What that means is that the QBO, at least for now, is not stalled but still dropping at a good clip. Should be negative sometime later this month if that continues. Again, the QBO behaves differently with solar min and max phases. Actually the best QBO state for us is a positive QBO with a solar max. The negative QBO with a solar min does include a slight SER(the good SER and not the massive deal that we are about to have). The good think about a -QBO is that it can enhance blocking and force strat warming in polar regions once established as negative. Again, I have lived through these types of winters before - many of them. The 90s had some truly snowless winters both in Knoxville and in Kingsport. So, this is nothing new for me and why I am always less excited about these types of winters. As for LR modeling, there is some movement of the ridge in the LR...but nothing significant yet. The MJO might be trying to show some signs of working around into more favorable phases on the Euro...but still a ways out on that. The EMON was certainly not encouraging yesterday, but it does not come out every day like the Euro. It may very well be that this is not a true weak El Nino, even though slightly positive. It certainly has some Nino characteristics with rain though! However, Nada patterns are not great IMBY. In fact they are usually pretty lousy in terms of winter. It may very well be that the Nino pattern is not strong enough. Too strong is not good. Too weak is not good. A regular or weak(not near neutral) El Nino will work as well. Even a weak La Nina will work - dry but cold with extremes. If I ranked in order the winters we don't want to have...Super El Nino, moderate/super La Nina, and nada. IMHO, a case could be made that during the last couple of winters that we have had pretty much nada stuff (conflicting Nina and Nino signals). Maybe it was JB or someone in the MA said that the Pacific basin might need a shake-up with an actual basin wide Nino or Nina event(not the super stuff...just normal Nino or Nada). That current colder water near SA is trouble as it favors a SER. It is more of a problem than folks give it credit for. But I can't really complain. I saw a foot IMBY Dec 2018, extreme cold for a week in the winter prior to that, and snow twice already this winter. And winter at this latitude has not disappeared. It is just out West, and I can pretty much guarantee that at some point winters that pattern will switch east. And I say it periodically, the flipping of the AMO during the late 80s coincides with this time frame of crap winters. There are other drivers at work for sure...but the AMO is a proven cold weather driver for this forum area, and it has been opposite of where we need it for about thirty years of a forty year cycle. But alas, this winter is not over. If we loop back into 4-6, maybe so. I don't have a ton of hope for sustained winter wx, but we might work our way into a 1-2 week tracking time frame.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And the 18z GFS has rediscovered the cold in d10-15. Some notable model trends today for those hoping winter arrives. The Good... 1. Big Scandinavian Ridge showing up in the LR of some operational and ensembles. That often leads to perturbed PVs and is a definite precursor to blocking. 2. Some model tendencies to push the ridge out of the East. The Bad... 1. One version of the Euro is hinting that the MJO may cycle back in 4-6 after it leaves around Jan 20. Another seems to take it towards better phases. In general, the worst version has verified so far this winter. 2. In about 6 weeks, it begins to get quite difficult to snow in the valleys minus an oddball storm. We are about to lose three of those weeks. So the window(good or bad), is going to be Jan 20-Feb14. That is about our best shot. I don't see anything that depicts sustained cold. What we might hope for is a storm pattern with cold sometimes in the mix. Welcome to Nino patterns and why I don't like them.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And if one was wanting to cherry pick something positive from the ball of red over the SE...there is some hint on the 12z GEFS of AN heights over Greenland - been trending that way for a few runs. I honestly don't think the GEFS looks worse. The operational is obviously worse, but the GEFS has Alaska and Greenland warming late in the run. Eventually that would for a fairly substantial block if real. Something to keep an eye on. Seriously TN fans...that game was nuts last night. Can't remember the last time I have seen us pull one out with a successful onside kick recovery. All hope looked like it was lost...sort of like our weather pattern. Not sure what the wx equivalent of an onside kick is, but probably time to start prepping that.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Band is back home safely. Vols pulled one out. And wx modeling is warm. Two out of three aren't bad!
  15. Carvers Gap
    At 380, the GFS has a system heading southwest after making landfall in BC. Trough is right under the ridge. Really doubt that happens. Pretty wild run though in regards to that! @weathertree4u that is probably something I would say is not realistic.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Been several good runs of the GFS...the 18z will not be. The PV over Greenland doesn't move and cause some weird little vortices to spin around it. The BN heights at 500, instead of cutting across NA, goes to Seattle, heads due south, and re-emerges back in the Pacific around San Diego and dies. Weird run...but again, the PV over Greenland weakens on most of these good runs. NA is much warmer on this run as well,
  17. Carvers Gap
    So, the 18z GFS and ICON both show a mixed bag next Tuesday into Wednesday now.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, Holston. Yeah, the trends on the Euro model suite have been good. Overall obs...I have said it for three days...just was super weird to see ensembles almost stop the hemispheric circulation pattern around the 10th. Now, we are seeing more volatility. I seriously doubt the models are not done trending. What I do think we need to really root for is the incredible cold model runs to verify AND for the Pacific Ridge to push cold air into the front slopes of the Rockies. While it is not ideal. We can deal with extreme cold being sent into MT and then have it modify as it comes eastward. Now, It will be hauling tail, but we at least "should" see some cold attacking the eastern ridge and reducing it to a potent and pesky SER. That is where modeling seems to be taking us over the past few days. Jan10-20 still looks like a very warm time frame, but if we can score a strong cold front in the middle of that...that would make things a bit more tolerable. While I don't see a pattern flip of any kind...more of a pattern modification. It is almost like that big Pacific ridge just pumps so much cold into the West, it has nowhere else to go but east. It is possible that if we get that much cold into the pattern that the sheer volume of the cold air becomes the driver and not the MJO. That big Pacific ridge is going to act like a giant pump and send cold air into the West...and then hopefully it spreads out. Models still look like they are adjusting to that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the worst of the cold drop into the Plains when it is all said and done. Anyway, don't want to belabor things to much...but weak Nino climatology supports the switch. And yes, sound EXACTLY like the conversation last year minus the SSW. I acknowledge that for those that say, "Here we go again." Cause yes, here we go again. LOL. Lastly, I read some D'Aleo stuff today. He was talking about how the ENSO signal is basically a neutral but weakly positive. It may well be that this winter is never classified as a weak El Nino. It may be a Nada, and Nadas are not great winter drivers here. We either need a weak El Nino or weak La Nina - not too much and not too little. It may be that the El Nino is not quite strong enough. Just a though. Probably more likely that the MJO region is giving us the shaft once again. LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. Would it be too much to ask to have the 12.30 gif in the same post for comparison. If not...I am super appreciative of the one you posted! If you can just edit the post and put the old run first...
  20. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the Euro Weeklies Control depicts a similar NA 500 pattern to the last four runs of the GFS. We were kicking around the realistic nature of that run. Looks like another model(albeit control) has a similar look. I suspect this is about the time that the MJO goes COD.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Basically, it is a pattern where cold drops into the front range and comes eastward in pulses. Now, the Weeklies are sorely guilty of continuing the derived run in perpetuity, so there is that. However, maybe we are starting to see some cracks in the current pattern. Now, if we go with the 6 week pattern cycle rule...Warmth began here around Dec 8th. Add 42 days to that and you get January 19th. The current return to seasonal(important note...not BN but seasonal and also along the battle zone for temps) occurs on that model around Jan22-23.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I said I would refrain from talking about the Weeklies in depth unless they changed... @Holston_River_Rambler , are you able to build both an 850 and 500 loop of that run? Pretty big changes early in week 4. Looked like the GFS but about a week later. SER continues to fight, but the death ridge is absent after week 3.
  23. Carvers Gap
    GFS is colder. The though has crossed my mind that if the ridge in the Pacific continues to be crazy strong...it might just dump a significant amount of cold air into NA and that would trump everything else. Euro is a hair eastward with the trough...
  24. Carvers Gap
    You catching the Euro run here at 12z? Interesting to 174 for sure.
  25. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 12z Euro and GFS look very similar at 168 with the Euro Pac ridge pushing towards the coast a smidge more than 0z.
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