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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, for sure. I think it is pay me now or pay me later. If a piece of that trough kicks East, we get the first true cold front of January. If it holds back, the entire thing is going to come out. The 12z GFS certainly had plenty of blocking and troughs in the correct places. The SER really wants to hang on in modeling. That is something we will have to watch. I strongly suspect it gets beaten down over time. Looks like some form of an EPO ridge on most modeling with varying "opinions on the rest NA in regards to blocking. Indeed, the 12z GFS basically flipped all of that from 6z but with mid-latitudess staying similar. All of this bouncing around lends itself to a substantial stake-up just after mid-month. The one thing that many models are showing is a stalled frontal boundary over the Upper South and/or Ohio Valley. Have to watch those with big highs in place. That would likely be my second favorite setup for winter storms. Plenty to look at...and some uncertainty as well. But hey, when is the weather ever a certainty? I hold cautious optimism that winter is going to return. If it weren't for last year's head fake, I would be pretty excited. For now, I tread lightly!
  2. Carvers Gap
    MJO continues to improve with it becoming more apparent that there will no be a quick loop back into the warm phases. Options include going into the COD or heading into phases 7/8. Both are not bad.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Of note the 0z EPS pulls BN heights northward and puts a ridge in the West with an unsettled pattern over the East. The 6z GEFS finally moved towards the EPS solutions. Overall, still a nice cold signal from Jan 17-21. After that, still a shakeup expected. Does the cold lift out and get replaced with a zonal look or does the cold stay in NA and reload the eastern trough? Does the PV split as hinted at by American modeling? Before anyone scoffs at the American model at range...the GFS for whatever reason has a pretty good ability to depict TPV splits.
  4. Carvers Gap
    You know a side-by-side NA view of the craptastic pattern in a few days and that last frame of the 18z GFS would be cool. Example A: Garbage Example B: Money
  5. Carvers Gap
    18z is a textbook transition. Right speed but slower than previous runs. But the result of energy being held back is that the ensuing eastern trough digs deeper. The model solutions where pieces of the trough are spit out a little at a time results in a mess. Looks to me like the ridge is going to roll forward in the Pacific. If so, we want enough energy held back to dig the ensuing trough. Just another wild run. When 18z comes around, pretty much pop the popcorn.
  6. Carvers Gap
    ...And these changes are not that far off. First cold shot on the 18z GFS is heading down the Plains at 192.(next Wednesday)
  7. Carvers Gap
    Have seen some quality chatter on various forums(mainly MA) regarding conflicting signals of the PV tightening on the EPS and splitting on the GFS. We don't want the PV to tighten up per the EPS any more than it is. We want it displaced per the GFS preferably into eastern NA. Some of that accounts for variations being seen. I highly doubt that we are done with the wild wx model solutions. Probably just the beginning. Still, I think a very big shake-up is coming. I welcome that because the big ridge in the East was not going to get it done. Kind of like you get a bad hand in poker. Fold and take your losses. Then, get a new hand dealt and hope it is better. Pretty much right where we are. The upcoming hand is about as bad as it gets. Nothing wrong with getting a new hand. But....this is what makes this fun. We get to try to work a new pattern instead of the mega-torch that we will see.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS like the 12z GFS(operational) is wanting to belly the ridge into the nation's mid-section. And like the GFS, one has to look at surface temps in order to get the entire story. If the ridging is week...it is cold to very cold underneath. When the EPS has mean surface 2m temps cold in the d10-15 those have been verifying quite cold. I generally have to use 850 temps to balance the 2m temp bias to warm. Looks like the trend is to continue to allow for an Aleutian' trough and slightly more ridging into the nation's mid-section which eventually backs into a weak trough. What today's run tells me is that this is not settled - this meaning the shake-up. If I was a betting man, I would bet on a stout western ridge and an Aleutian's low. And yes, very strong signal for multiple over-running events at various latitudes in the lower 48. Until this gets worked out, tough to know where. The 12z Euro now has the cold shot around Jan16/17. Oddly, maybe very oddly, the EPS as en ensemble and GFS as an operational is working as my preference. They have been leading the way with their respective model groups. The odd washed out crazy look on the 12z GFS...pretty much what the EPS looked like as well. Modeling is a mess which is a very good sign of a significant hemispheric circulation pattern change.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS still holding strong with(what so far) an outlier solution of an eastern ridge. The 12z GFS(different core and newer) is about night and day different. So something to keep an eye on. Even on the GEFS looks like the cold air is pressing, but the SER has not budge on that model. More updates to come regarding ensembles and the Euro run. Feel free to chime in...
  10. Carvers Gap
    The big changes at 500 are now sitting just outside of the 10 day window, but the transition is now inside of ten days at the surface. Fingers crossed that it hits and holds.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It is almost like the surface map changes ahead of the 500 map. Looks like Jan16/17 is when that shot of cold air arrives and that would make it the beginning of a potential winter weather window. As weathertree notes, ton of cold air up there. And it looks like it wants to head southeast.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And again, the 500 maps on the CMC don't actually match the surface maps late in the run. Once that cold air surges into the SE it takes its time to move. Looks to me like a fairly strong ice storm signal with low level cold in place and almost gets pinned there by warmer air above it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yes, there is. I came buy to post about how I actually like the wonky looking 12z GFS. Big takeaway...EPO ridge. Rest of the run is all over the place as it leaves a piece of energy in the SW. The GFS has been advertising for several days some fairly cold air. The Euro is not on board as much with that...but the EPS is actually better long range. Looks to me like a pattern that reloads cold in the front range in MT and just keeps sending it SE. With the active storm system that we have, any significantly cold and sizable air mass would likely intersect with the active STJ. Now, I have no idea how long that will hold in place...but it is certainly better than the big ridge. Reminds me a lot of November when I look at it. Very warm pattern that takes about 1-2 weeks to step down into a very cold pattern. Does it verify? Million dollar question.
  14. Carvers Gap
    New EMON MJO is out today. The Euro has been kicking butt and taking names regarding the MJO. It is not perfect but IMHO its performance has pretty much exceeded any other model. Looks like COD after this two week trip into the warm phases. That fits nicely with the EPO ridge becoming a main driver sometime after mid-month. JB did mention that convection has fired in the western IO which corresponds to phases 1 and 2. We have been there before with that. He mentioned that modeled the null phase may be the model splitting the difference between 5/6 and 1/2. Shakup still apparent on modeling. Looks like the target date for the first front will be around January 16/17. That front will likely be muted and be a seasonal front, but there is a chance it is a truly strong cold front. Quick warm-up after that...and then the eastern ridge is modeled to get beat-up pretty good if not completely removed. 12z EPS looked good last night. GEFS is SLOWLY coming around...its MJO is an outlier right now and is likely causing that model to be an outlier. Meanwhile, the operational GFS bounces between the trough coming east to just a jumble of AN and BN heights scattered randomly throughout the lower 48. Again, going to be lots of model variations if the shakeup is real. If the EPS holds through tomorrow afternoon, my confidence will really grow.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Griteater posted this on Twitter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS is still doesn't agree with the operational. I suspect them having different cores is the problem. That said, the eastern ridge is more suppressed than previous runs but still solid. Might that be the beginning of it moving? IDK.
  17. Carvers Gap
    18z things that were good. -EPO: Check +PNA: Check Aleutian Ridge: Check -NAO: As the emperor in Gladiator would say......
  18. Carvers Gap
    That run has been money for about three straight days. LOL. The place where it ended at 500 is probably something @John1122 would approve of which is a cooperative Pacific and a big ol' -EPO. Fingers crossed the trends of the past 48 hours continue. Good thing is operational models almost have the transitional elements inside of d10.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Probably a more accurate statement is there is a massive ridge in the West after 300 right were it is cold this week.
  20. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS again completely erases the eastern ridge. Run ends with a snowstorm. Pretty cool.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Holston, Mike Ventrice had a 2-3 consecutive tweets about the MJO region earlier today. They were really good. 18 GFS looks like it is on its way to eliminating the eastern ridge once again. Fingers crossed.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Of note, we were in a similar position last year expecting a change for the better, and we know how that turned out. That said, this year we have not had a PV split, the weak Nino/Nada appears to be coupled with the atmosphere, and the MJO is potentially trending into the COD. Nino winters have fickle end games so proceed with caution. I don't think anyone can fault us for crying wolf with cold this winter. We have been banging the drum for warm since early December with the occasional celebration of a non-torch run. It is worth noting(the MA talked about this today and I mentioned it last week), the snow on the ground in the NW is not like last winter in most places. They have had snow, but there are places just outside Yellowstone with bare ground at times. So, they have not had a snowmegeddon like last February - yet. Maybe they build a glacier over the next ten days. I mention that because average to below average snowfall in that area is tied to an El Nino pattern. That said, global snowfall is down a bit in general with the PV at record strength. The west actually has some negative departures in the northern Rockies. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=5&ui_set=2 Other things in our favor are climatology and that we had a cold November. Climatology is worth a quick discussion. This is more of a positive La Nada instead of a weak El Nino. The cold off SA certainly has a Nina characteristic. So, what climatology are in? That is up for debate IMHO. If it is Nino climatology, we should have a cold end to winter. If it is Nada climatology, those winters are usually meh end-to-end. The cold November is likely in our favor if one buys that the past two cold Novembers are not the result of a warm Pacific basin forcing the pattern to turn cold in November and then subsequently warm as the winter season settles in. The QBO is now descending and not stalled. If it can get into negative territory, the downward trajectory combined with negative territory will enhance that index - like double bonus points on a video game. Things not in our favor. Does anyone really trust the MJO at this point? It really shouldn't be heading into warm phases at this time of year during Nino(if we assume this is a weak Nino...again debatable)conditions, but there it goes. Will it loop back into warm phases and is the relaxation on the modeling just it entering the COD before re-emerging into less favorable phases again? Climatology is not in our favor if this is in fact a Nada. The PV needs to be knocked of its spot...right now it is too tight and needs to be jostled around preferably into any eastern trough! If one adheres to patterns lasting 4-6 weeks, the pattern should at least reshuffle(that doesn't always mean a better pattern) by mid January. Again, that did not happen last winter. As of this writing, the model trend is in our favor. However, we know that there have seen false alarms all winter and last. At this latitude those probably won't be the last false alarms. The real question I have is whether we enter a new pattern dominated by an eastern trough in the means OR if this reverts back to a ridge after 7-10 days. I don't think we know the answer to that yet. I lean towards an eastern trough, but it is only a lean. This is not last winter, and past performance does not equal future results ...but sometimes in the weather past performance sort of does(let's just hope the pattern in November is what is remembered). Patterns do matter, but the atmosphere doesn't have any memory of last year. However, the active MJO is a commonality and should be factored. So today, we are cautiously optimistic which is better than wall-to-wall warmth. As Bob Chill noted, the EPS is probably the best it has been all winter from d10-15. That said, will that trend continue as it has for several runs?
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the Weeklies don't belly the ridge into California. The 12z EPS does and forces the EPO ridge slightly into PNA territory. The 12z EPS pushes the ridge further eastward into California where 0z(Weeklies were derived from that run) does not. Subtle differences, but can make a big difference. The 0z run would have allowed BN heights to slide west of the Continental Divide...12z run forces it all east. Big question will be whether the AN heights over the eastern Pacific are gone or just on a brief hiatus. We definitely want to see the EPO ridge pushing inland as the AN heights right on the tail of the EPO ridge will likely reinforce it wherever it is. Weeklies imply a window from Jan20-30th. Could be shorter or could be much longer. Going to probably be some wild model runs with the shake-up around the 18th. Looks like a lot of modeling is hinting those changes that will weaken the easter Pac ridge begin around d10. Going to be a BIG warm-up in the meantime but maybe we can see the end of it now? Time will tell.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Take it with a huge grain, but the EPS control has a massive -NAO right over Greenland d10-15. I won't hold my breath but worth sharing.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS finally completed its run. Looks like there is a -EPO and maybe part of the ridge peaking into PNA territory. Mean trough is centered over the eastern Plains with cooler air surging eastward d13-15 w a very weak SER. This morning's run wasn't bad. This one was better and very similar to the 12z GEPS and 12zGFS. 12z GEFS is out on a limb w the western trough. Looks to me like a pattern very similar to November "trying" to develop where cold pushes into the front range and then surges eastward. So, let's see if those trends hold over the next couple of days and even improve. The good thing is that the big red ball over the eastern Pacific is forecast to weaken substantially. Ah...bout forgot, the Scandinavian ridge is still present on the EPS. This has not been a sudden flip on modeling as the trends have been working there way into the medium and long range for several days. Now, can we get a trough to hold in the East? TBD.
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