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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The thing I am seeing today is a bigger presence by the EPO ridge and a deeper trough somewhere east of the Rockies after Feb 5th. I really have run with the premise that the trough does not hold. But if that trough were to old like the EPS is showing, that would allow for really cold air to enter into the US. Give me that pattern on the EPS and 2m temps take care of themselves. No idea if that type of extreme look would verify. If I remember correctly, the CFS and EURO had similar MJO trajectories this morning - for once. I like that look, but do I trust the CFSv2? LOL. Anyway, at this latitude there are about 100 ways to achieve worse pattern. Right now, I am just pointing out with modeling how things could lead to a decent window.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Couple of images to explain my thinking regarding the EPS. 0z is on the right. 12z is on the left. The first image(figure 1) is hour 198 which is February 5 @ 18z. Notice the core of the colder air is further west vs being over Quebec. Notice that the cold north of Alaska is stronger. That stronger area of BN heights near Alaska likely weakens the downstream trough. Notice how at 0z they(the two areas of BN heights) are similar. JB likes to point out that there is only so much energy to go around. Again, I don't do 2m temps on the EPS as they are often very biased towards warm. I look at 850s. That said, the 2m temps later in the run are impressive. So, the trough at 500 is later by roughly 12-18 hours now that I have had time to dig into it. You can compare the two images. Instead of the cold digging with the feature in Quebec, it digs into the Plains and pushes eastward. Almost all modeling is bouncing back-and-forth between placing the lowest heights in the northern Plains or Quebec. You can see the difference. Figure 1 Figure 2 shows what I consider to be fairly important improvements. Notice the stronger heights at 330 are centered over Minnesota instead of Montana and Quebec. That might mean the EPS is just splitting the difference between the two cold pools OR it actually now sees the cold in the Plains. Either way, the result on this run is the positive axis of the trough being moved quite a bit further East. With the area of lowest heights centered in the northern Plains, the cold air presses further into the SE and nearly eliminates the influence of the SER in our forum area, even bringing BN heights into west TN, Arkansas, far western KY, and Missouri. That also means the storm track would theoretically slide eastward and run from Houston through TN to Massachusetts verbatim. In reality that front probably presses further east at the surface due to the cold being centered so close in the Plains relatively speaking. That is a cold pattern. Also note the ridging In Alaska along with the ridging building into the coastal areas of Pacific NA. Another difference is the lack of Atlantic ridging. That may very well have allowed the trough to be displaced eastward. But the biggest takeaway from LR(and really LR at that) is that the EPS takes a big bite out of the SER and centers the cold further East. Figure 2 Lastly, I thought I would compare the Weeklies to actually EPS stuff now that it is in range. This is the 7day 500 anomaly for February 4-11. Figure 3 is from the Euro Weeklies derived on January 20th. Figure 4 is the same time frame from the 12z EPS today which is a run eight days later. While not perfect, the cold and trough axis in the lower 48 is nearly the same place. Just showing that the Weeklies are doing fairly well right now in week 3. Also note that the actual trough is being modeled deeper on today's run. Figure 3 Figure 4
  3. Carvers Gap
    In my book that is a split given where it began at hour 0. But I am comfortable with different terminology. So, instead of split I will use an Eastman term: process upset. Used in a sentence it would work something like this....The SPV at 50mb is experiencing a major process upset.
  4. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerlooks to me like that trough is going to lift out of the West fairly quickly. Have seen that trend on modeling. That is a textbook easterly QBO/solar min look. I actually am a fan of the PV being over the HB an pivoting down cold - and I may have that backwards but that is what sticks in my mind.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That run of the 12z EPS will work. The cold is centered in the Plains and not the Rockies. The cold would push on that boundary. IF true, that taps the GOM with that look late. See how the boundary drags into the Gulf? Fairly strong improvement IMHO and the ridge is closer to the West coast. The SER has really been pushed toward the EC.
  6. Carvers Gap
    At 288, more ridging into Alaska is evident. Core of the cold is over the Plains. Looks very much like a microcosm of November.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The interesting development on the 12z EPS is that the trough is a bit slower to lift out and the storm track would be optimum around 228. Of note, the ridge in the eastern Pacific is closer to the coast and stronger at 288.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Also, looks like the 12z Euro OP splits the SPV as well. I will let Holston unpack that.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The Euro digs the initial trough into TX this run. It is sort of a compromise between the CMC and GFS. It is worth noting that the big cold has slowed by about 36 hours due to the trough digging. The cool thing about the trough digging is that it allows for the storm that Holston posted above. I don't see anything at this point that makes me think the trough won't come East. The big EPO ridge should kick it out. Just about timing right now. But we don't want to see things getting pushed back and held at d8-9. Need to see it moving forward. Quick EPS update as in a bit of a hurry this afternoon: The EPS does not slow the front down. (Edit: Surface front slows down by about 18-24 hours...sorry, was in a hurry...500 has only slowed down by about 12) I am actually trying to decide if the trough digging is a bad thing. That actually might allow the trough to have more staying power. The EPS does sort of split the difference between the core of the cold on the 12z Euro and the 0z EPS. Instead of the core of BN heights over the GL, it is heading down the Plains into the SE. Model Mayhem...I keep saying it, but it is true. Still looks like a decent window for a storm.
  10. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_RamblerI think the EPS/Euro handle the MJO regions really well. But as we have noted, the GFS/GEFS probably handles the strat a bit better. Not sure what to think at this point. That will likely have impacts at high latitudes that modeling isn't seeing yet. Looks like that has been on there for several runs.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I just looked. Yeah, the 12z basically split it. It is even more noticeable at 30 and 50mbs. That is a big development if true.
  12. Carvers Gap
    One final note here before the Euro rolls, the EMON/EMOM is super similar to the Weeklies last night regarding the MJO. If you break the next three days into 1/3s: The first third is null. Second third is 4/5 and little of 6. Last third is null. That fits really well with a cold shot in early Feb, a warm-up, and then the trough pushes back East as the MJO stalls. All of that is at really low amplitude. The GEFS wants to head towards 4 and bend back to 3. This just tells me what we know from forecasts. The MJO is going to have 2/3 firing along with 6 at times. Going to be a battle and is likely why we see models waffling after Feb 10th. One can see when looking at the equatorial are in the IO, MC, and western Pac the MJO firing in the sequence that the EMON has. So again, looks like when the MJO goes into null gives us a clued as to when windows will be there for winter storms.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS @ Pivotal Wx is done. Trough ducks west around the 9th or 10th, and then like the Weeklies, centers back towards East right at the end of the run. No idea if true, but that is a good trend if it were to continue. Good thing is that there is precedent for that.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has a very strong EPO ridge during this run. The CMC isn't far off from that either. The CMC is just slower but would likely get the same result a couple of days later. We will see if this trends...both models have a better looking Pacific after Feb 5.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z Model Mayhem continues: GFS OP: Won't bite on the eastern ridge. Slides another trough in late. It does have a cold bias late in its run, so that might be playing into it. And I wonder if that is not what the ensemble is seeing Feb 10-20? It has a SER but it might just be a brief ridge replaced by a trough, wash/rinse/repeat.... CMC OP: New update, right? Bout to find out if it is improved. Dumps trough West and then crawls it eastward though the Euro had a run that was similar a few days back. Wonder if the CMC now has a bias in the Southwest? That has been an outlier solution so far as even its own ensemble doesn't support that. Now, not sure if the ensemble is actually running off the same update. Oddly, the GFS does the same thing with its second trough during d10-15. I have said this over and over again. Don't like what you see, wait a couple of runs and it will likely be there.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS with a storm around 10...The Feb 5-10 time frame still looks like maybe our best chance this winter so far. It is a brief window, but a lot of things are in place that would support an EC storm. No idea if the operational is correct, but it is just an example of what "could" happen.
  17. Carvers Gap
    MJO is all over the place. The CPC RMM1GEFS MJO does show a four in a couple of weeks which does fit nicely with the GEFS SER. Looks like everything(so far) is very low amplitude which is why the cold can likely press. Question is, do we trust the GEFS? Personally, I go back and forth on this answer. After doing a good job recently with the MJO, it basically caved to the Euro(from yesterday). So, makes me think the EPS can be trusted. The GEFS with that SER and phase 2-3 MJO was out of sync with itself. I actually think the GFS handles change a bit better. It takes corners a bit better. The Euro turns slower but has better physics IMHO. Anyway, do you have a PV update? Forecasts and trends?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Option one this winter has always been to take the worst model, and it usually verifies. LOL. As noted earlier this winter, I am hunting windows for winter weather. That is not without its risks and pitfalls. At this latitude one is going to be wrong more than they are right by doing that, but you all know that. My opinion about Feb 5-10 is about the same. The 6z GFS has a decent pattern during that time frame and the Euro isn't far away. Ensembles do indeed show a SER sometime around the 10th. Please reference my Weeklies discussion yesterday. Looks like the MJO might go into unfavorable phases around that time. We have noted this in discussion for several days - meaning the SER is a real possibility after the 10th. What is encouraging is that the Euro Weeklies did show it being beaten back at times. My guess is that we get cold shots, it warms, cold builds over the front range in MT, and heads south again in pulses after the 10th. I suspect we have 2-3 windows this month which will last from 3-5 days each with the Feb5-10 window looking closer to 4-5 days and others less. I think we have done good work balancing the positives and negatives of the upcoming pattern. Without blocking in the Atlantic, cold windows are going to be short as the Pacific just doesn't stay "right" for weeks on end right now. So going forward these are the things I am watching: 1. I think the warm-up around the 10th is likely. Does it get beaten back by strong fronts? I think so, but nothing is ever a given. 2. Where is the MJO heading? I think the phase 6 region is going to be a fight. See Weeklies discussion for that progression. 3. I think we are going to have our chances, but nothing is a guarantee. Others have different opinions on that, and that is ok....prevents group think. 4. Are we actually going to see blocking in the Atlantic? Some runs have very strong anomalies in varying places in the Atlantic. I have seen east based NAOs, Atlantic ridges(those disrupt the PV), and weak AN heights over the Davis Straits. 5. Alaska. Do heights continue to trend AN there? 6. EPO ridge placement. Sometimes the EPO ridge is nearly perfect. At others, it is displaced too far to the West. 7. As noted yesterday, solar mins and the easterly QBO phase do favor a positively tilted NA trough w a SER of varying degrees underneath. That is shown on modeling at long 8. The TPV and SPV....bout the time of year that starts to really get disrupted or displaced. How does that unfold? Still a ton of fun stuff to discuss from a meteorology standpoint. We have several more weeks of winter with one pattern change now to d8. Since I have to wait until next November, going to track as much as I can during February. And in the event we get blanked, we will still be better at this as we get another month to follow winter wx patterns at this latitude. ...And I still have my eye on the weekend as the 6z GFS brought heavy snow into the Smokies. I may be chasing if that happens!
  19. Carvers Gap
    There are plenty of positives from modeling overnight. Again, we are look at the Feb5-10 time frame with potential a couple of more windows during February. Nobody is calling for wall-to-wall cold and snow. Just hunting a window for wintry weather. Be back in a bit. Temp trends not he Euro and EPS when compared to 12z are not bad on what I am looking at. They look cooler in the time frame mentioned.
  20. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC dumps the trough a bit further west, but still moves the trough eastward. The actual boundary stalls over the forum area. If true, cold air likely pushes south of that boundary. That is the overrunning scenario the GFS had earlier. Just need to make sure that we get on the right side of that boundary. So, looks like we have a couple of options presented so far at 0z. Front roars through all of the way to the GOM and a storm spawns on it or the front passage itself has moisture that switches over. OR the trough stalls and waves run along a front draped over the TN valley. Long way out there still as we are eight days out.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z GFS is still on schedule with Feb 5th still moving forward in time for tbe cold front and trough at 500. Potential is there for snow to fall as that front passes. You all know the drill at this range. And it bears repeating, we are looking for a 4-5 day window where we might be able to steal a storm.
  22. Carvers Gap
    WWAs remain in effect for mountains counties as they received decent snowfall today. MRX with a great discussion for this weekend. 0z GFS with a great track but marginal temps at best. Probably still going to keep an eye on it... Past Thursday, we are still dealing with model uncertainty as there is a lot going on in the atmosphere. We`ve still got a northern and southern stream feature swinging across the Central U.S. at roughly the same time. The ECMWF still has the southern feature further south than the GFS. If this plays out, then we get caught in between the southern and northern stream which would mean little to no precip for our area over the weekend. The GFS continues to be further north and spreads precip in Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. If this is the case then the higher elevations would see some more light snowfall while valley locations see more rain. Model differences exist on Saturday night into Sunday as well with a clipper system potentially affecting our area. It`s too far out at this point to go into much detail other than both the GFS and ECMWF show a good bit of moisture with it. The problem is that the ECMWF is further north and doesn`t bring any precip into our area and the GFS does because its placement is further south. We will see how models handle this as we move forward. Models are signaling strong riding building on Monday. As of now, forecast highs are in the upper 50s to low 60s which would put us around 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I also should have noted that the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 imply that we will have a restocked Canada in terms of cold. I am a little gun shy as they have done that once recently. Both of those LR models have another trough amplification around Feb19-20. Take that with a huge grain of salt. Both models portray periodic intrusions of quite cold air into the East during February. May be right and may be wrong, but that is what is on modeling this evening.
  24. Carvers Gap
    But save that gif though, cause at some point sooner or later...we are going to need it!
  25. Carvers Gap
    They look better than Thursday. LOL. And the 12z EPS looks even better. Not saying it is going to be a cakewalk as I noted some phase 6 MJO tendencies mid month. But looks like we will have 2-3 windows during February. First window looks like Feb 5-10 roughly. Weeklies weren't exactly a fan of spring either - we all knew that was coming!
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