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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Unless I am wrong, the AO on the Euro run is going to go from near record positive values and then crash into the negative range.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the great commentary. Yeah, I am not sold on the Euro solution...just noting there is some uncertainty after the 15th or so. I am actually not convinced any model has the actual pattern evolution nailed down yet, and that is understandable at this range. Just looking for a window of 2-3 days at a time. The base-warm pattern is unlikely to be broken prior to the end of winter unless the TPV, as you note, gets involved. Interesting to watch for sure. But no matter how Feb goes, you have the Chiefs to get you through and then it is March Madness!
  3. Carvers Gap
    See, I think it is not an actual null phase. I think it is 2/3 canceling out 6. That has not worked well for us this winter as 6 usually has usually won that battle.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Want to see some wild differences...take a look at the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS regarding surface temp anomalies after d10. It should be noted that they are basically different models as the GFS has the update and the GFS operational is at range. It may very well be that both models are in error. The 12z GFS MSLP anomaly is hilariously cold after d10. The 12z GEFS is a mega torch which may or may not be based on an erroneous MJO(see above post). Both extremes may very well be incorrect, but at least American modeling has covered the ranges of possibilities for this time frame. The only thing I find even remotely interesting is that the CMC has a similar MSLP(to the GFS) anomaly as its runs ends. Other than that...very warm vs very cold. What could go wrong?
  5. Carvers Gap
    ...and one last note. The above figures are used as examples of where the pattern could go and are not intended to be gospel. When looking at medium and LR patterns, it is understood that modeling can and will likely change. So, looking at trends, similarities, and differences can give us some idea of the most likely path(s) that the weather might take. So, view those comments as general observations and kicking around potential. As much as modeling has bounced around during the past 2-3 weeks...that also has to be kept in mind.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Gonna need a bigger glass if you go look at the GEFS MJO. Seriously, not sure I have seen this much spread on the MJO in a long time. The EMON takes it a low amplitude into 5/6 for just a few days and then heads to the COD like the BOMM. The GEFS goes almost off the charts into phase 6 with no COD. The BOMM from a few days ago is more like the EMON, so I cautiously roll with those two. But there is basically a vastly different MJO solution for each model. The CFSv2 even goes into phase 7 after its COD. With the MJO driving the bus, having wildly different solutions may very well cause some modeling issues after say the 14th.
  7. Carvers Gap
    6z Euro snow accums looks slim for the 7th, but it might not be picking up those well. Looks like there is a brief period of snow showers modeled for the eastern half of the state though, so it does have that.
  8. Carvers Gap
    GFS at 6z looks pretty warm to me after the 10th. That said, modeling has periodically been picking up on a brief cool down sometime between the 16th-19th. Again, I am not super convinced of what is being shown after the 15th. We will keep watching the MJO...rally cap folks probably need to just pull for that model to hold the MJO in the COD.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the even on the 9th(edit), the Euro looked really good for the Plateau w snow amounts of around 6". I think getting some lift on that backside wave will help with marginal temps might produce enough precip to cool the air column. Looks like it also falls at night. I am not convinced that it doesn't trend north, but it at least gives us something else to track in addition to the wrap-around stuff on wave 3. I would think areas along the TN/KY border and NE TN / SW VA have a shot at both. For those new to the forum...yes, we all know these are not slam dunks.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Lots of great stuff in here from MRX this morning... @Math/Met, low end mountain wave event? Wednesday night into Thursday, the cold front slows down due to the aforementioned strong high east in the Atlantic. This forces the low to take sharp turn north up toward the Great Lakes which orients the cold frontal boundary south-southwest to north-northeast. The atmospheric mean flow will be parallel to this boundary and heavy rainfall will occur along and east of this boundary. So the placement of the boundary will be very important in regards to how much rainfall our area will receive on Thursday. As of now, it looks like the areas that have the greatest chance for seeing heavy rainfall will be east of I-75 and moreso from southwest NC up along the spine of the Appalachians and into northeast TN. The heaviest rain will occur further east just on the other side of the Appalachians. Also during this time, Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, the 850 mb jet will strengthen to around 50 Kts which will allow the higher elevations to see some gusty winds. There is a brief period Thursday morning where we could see some mountain waves but the winds will be mostly aligned parallel to the terrain through the duration of this event. Rainfall Amounts: Wednesday night through Thursday morning, most areas will see rainfall amounts around 1 inch with up to 2 inches possible across SWNC. On Thursday, areas along the eastern mountains will see up to another inch of rainfall and up to two more inches across SWNC. So from Wednesday through Thursday night, most locations will see rainfall amounts between 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Southwest North Carolina will see amounts between 3 and 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. No headlines will be issued during this forecast as the heavy rain doesn`t start until Wednesday night. We will wait and see what the next round of model data shows before any decisions are made on any watch products. The boundary pushes further east Thursday night into Friday with colder air moving in behind the front. Any remaining moisture will change over to snow across the higher elevations with precip ending by early Friday afternoon. Another system moves in Friday night into Saturday as a shortwave trough swings across the area from out of the northwest. This system has the chance to bring more snowfall to the higher elevations but it`s too far out for any specifics regarding snowfall amounts at this time. Conditions clear out Saturday night into Sunday with another system moving in late Monday.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Of note, the 0z Euro has the event on the 9th again. The 6z GFS has the same system. It a small but powerful vortex diving into the back of the departing trough.
  12. Carvers Gap
    It has been a busy few days, so just now settling in a bit. The 12z EPS control had an almost identical run to the 18z GFS. While I think it is an outside shot...here is what I am seeing on those two runs. The EPO ridge builds in, kicks the western trough eastward, the EPO ridge retrogrades slightly, trough tucks West, and gets kicked out again. IMHO, that has a chance at being the pattern which is better than a wall-to-wall ridge. When this pattern showed up in early December, I felt strongly we were going to be warm for a long time and banged that drum pretty loudly. I think this time that ridge tucking West is a lot closer call than what was shown in early December. That EPO ridge pushing into Alaska will be felt by that trough from time to time. So, while we are in a base warm pattern in the East this winter...cold fronts can come eastward - especially as wavelengths change-up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The irony of that run is that the -EPO finally did what most of us think it would do during a normal year...it kicked that trough(which forms around Feb 10th) out of the West after 4-5 days. The ensemble does not support that, but I still don't think they run off the same core. I am not convinced that western trough holds. It may, but it may not. It is not like LR modeling has been overly accurate this winter. But not getting wrapped up in GFS at range. It's just that it shows what can happen if the EPO ridge is being modeled incorrectly. If it pushes into the coast by a fraction on the global scale, that trough kicks East. All other teleconnections were terrible on the 18z, but it does demonstrate what the EPO can do if positioned correctly. The MJO is driving the bus, but if it ever decides to let up or stay in the COD...if we have a -EPO, it would be the second most influential driver for MBY. Yeah, I hope we don't waste a potent trough this weekend. Hopefully, we can score something out of it!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Tough call. I think the snow in western North Carolina last week proves a well placed slp or wave can produce snow with marginal temps. We really need it to dig below our latitude on modeling. Those things have a tendency to trend northward over time. Another option is for the wave to do what occurred on the CMC which is to form a storm. This weekend's trough is not benign. Not all all troughs during winter produce, but there is a reason folks watch them. Details matter, and we don't have enough for the 9-10th time frame yet. Definitely worth tracking at this range though.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Something I noticed on the CPC MJO site...The MJO is all over the place regarding various models. The models that I trust the most are low amplitude warm phases for 8-10 days beginning in around 5-7 days and then COD again. When the MJO goes into the COD, that seems to cut the legs out from under the eastern ridge. Something to watch in modeling. Again, most of us are just looking for windows where the pattern might relax enough for that to happen. Also, the forecast record AO has nowhere to go but down. So, eyeballing the timeframe around the 20th for another window for winter weather potential. Obviously that is not set in stone. Again, I am not sure I trust modeling right now with the MJO all over the places. We will be fighting phase the rest of the winter unless something changes. Also, the trend to really build heights over Alaska is something to watch as well. A -EPO seems to trump everything but phase 6 of the MJO.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC and 0z Euro do have a western/middle TN snowstorm as the trough lifts out. Someone noted, that energy has been on modeling for a while, it has normally been rain or just weak. But the trough looks fairly potent in its structure though cold air is limited. Still watching that last wave on the initial trough in regards to NE TN as well on Friday. In the LR, modeling again favors a SER of varying strength w the EPS being the weakest with cold setting up in the front range. Confidence in that setup is growing from the 10th-15th. Both the GEFS and EPS do lift the trough somewhat out of the West around mid-month w a ridge still bellying under any eastern NA trough that forms. I have less confidence about what happens if/once the ridge lifts out of the West. Zonal would likely be my thoughts then around mid-month. There is a chance that the cold presses and that will have to be watched depending on its strength.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man...big win. What an offense!
  18. Carvers Gap
    That AO is huge on some modelling. For sure John, would be pretty awesome. Did one of the winters in the mid 2010s have a big +AO and we still had snow?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Regarding d9+ MJO...Indeed, the GEFS is quite different than the Euro and CFS which are low amplitude in warm phases or just COD, respectively. The GEFS goes at a decent amplitude through the warm phases. The ECMF barely goes into the warm phases at all. The ECMM is quite weak but is in the warm phases. Will be intersting to see which model leads here as that likley decides a good chunk of Feb. Also explains why the EPS is somtimes less bullish on the D9+ ridge duration. Also, just an interesting note(likley means nothing), the observed MJO took a turn directly opposite of where it was forecast yesterday.
  20. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler that is a fairly rough looking vortex at the surface(looking at your animation). Wonder if that is why modeling is struggling after the 10th? A displaced TPV will upend any modeling around d10. Thanks for the gifs this AM as well. I know those take some time. Big help!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Phil has obviously looked at the MJO forecast.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The last wave deal gets a mention by MRX this AM. Great disco for the upcoming week. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Models continue to agree on a very wet and mild pattern for Tuesday through Thursday, but there are some important details regarding the periods of highest rain chances, chances of thunder, QPF, and frontal passage timing that are not in good agreement. The ECWMF has remained fairly consistent from run to run, while the GFS has changed quite a bit, mainly in regard to the timing of the cold front passage and low pressure track. The ECWMF will be preferred for its consistency, but with low confidence on details, the forecast will be broad brushed with high PoPs for Monday night through Thursday, and few significant changes will be made from the previous forecast. The ECWMF keeps us firmly in the warm sector of the approaching system, tracking a surface low from LA to OH on Wed-Thu, then pushing a cold front through late Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will continue to be mentioned Wednesday and Wednesday night, and while a severe threat cannot be ruled out due to the 50 kt LLJ, surface based instability will be mainly to our south. Heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will be a greater concern, and the HWO will continue to mention this. Storm total QPF in the range of 2-4 inches is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible. Low confidence due to model differences continue with the post- frontal pattern on Thursday night/Friday. The GFS`s more eastern track of the low results in more wrap around moisture into our area, while the ECMWF has more dry advection and very little post-frontal precip. Both have a broad longwave trough over the eastern Conus, so a low to slight chance PoP will be maintained through Friday and Saturday. Temps this period appear to support a chance of snow in some northern areas and higher elevations.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The MJO is just going to be a fight the rest of the winter as evidenced by Holston's satellite looks. Phases 2-3 are dying while the warm phases fire. Again, the way to beat that pattern is to have cold overwhelm the pattern and/or we get a strong -EPO which is able to fight off the MJO. That has happened in the past, but it is not the norm.
  24. Carvers Gap
    LR modeling... I feel like the 0z EPS and GEPS(huge step) took a step forward overnight. The EPS has the big ridge that weather tree has been talking about...in the East from the 10-15th. Indeed, it is robust. It then moves to a broader trough. The GEPS has it from the 9th to the 15th, and then reverses the pattern to another eastern trough late. The key in both of those runs is how long the EPO ridge holds vs retrograding to the northwest. I really don't think that piece of the equation is solved. It does looks like some form of a trough will dig around the 10th in the West, but I am not holding my breath. The Euro operational cuts the low off in the Southwest and has pushed back the formation of the western trough to the 11th. The -EPO on the 0z Euro operational is about as strong as one can get it. That is likely what caused the aforementioned storm to form on the 9th. I think a trough goes into the West eventually, but a ton of uncertainty after the initial modeled trough on the 7th rolls through. It is entirely possible that a trough could tuck into the West for a time. Duration is probably the question. Whether it is right or wrong, The 6z GFS and 0z GFS have understandably quite differing solutions after d10. The GFS/GEFS combo is really warm in part because that model does not cut off the southwest low, but digs a big trough earlier into the West which allows strong height rises at 500 in the East. Again, that little cut-off likely holds a big key in the downstream pattern.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z Euro has a significant snow storm around Feb 9th with some areas of the Eastern Valley modeled with 6-8" and lollipop areas of 10-12" on the southern Plateau and GSNMP. Pretty good thump for the Plateau and Eastern Valley. This is the first I have seen of that particular system, so I won't be too invested until we see it again. As has been mentioned ad nauseam, that is in the window that we have been tracking. The reason the window is a good one is because of the trough that is coming through on the 7th, which is about 36 hours later than modeling had it about a week ago, but is still well within the parameters that we have been looking at which is the 5-10th. The Euro would have sever and snow within about a four day time frame. That is not without precedent. Again, not getting too much invested in that run as that look was a first. Definitely worth some discussion since it is within day 7. As noted a few pages back, the Euro extends the duration of the trough through almost 240. The 0z and 6z GFS continue to show a decent last wave of three along the initial trough arrival. It is going to have to be watched. The Euro has a similar set-up but accentuates the trough right before the GFS does. Either model could be correct. It is in the realm of possibility that the first wave could be sever and the last snow.
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