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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And again at 12z today there are strong, cold surface highs on the GEFS which are pressing under the trough at 500. I want to see the EPS back this up before commenting further. Honestly, the GEFS is almost a waste of breath in terms of details which is understandable at this range. Just looking for trends at 500.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling is really struggling with what to do with the trough in the West. The MJO progression favors that and it will win for a time. But one can almost see those wavelengths changing up, and it scrambles the MJO signal. Those long, broad troughs and ridges are sharper. Below is where a I think the second window forms. Likely it is a 2-3 day window centered sometime around the 20th. The trough lifts out of the West and heads into southern Canada. We get a brief long wave trough that we can hope has energy timed correctly. The GEFS, while very shaky at best in its verification, does do this.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 12z GEFS, at 228 it has delayed the inevitable eastern SER. Some moderate changes at this point. Edit: After that...very similar. Prior to that, the ridge struggled to form.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I mean I think the message is a trough going into the west after Feb 10(maybe a hair earlier). I had noted that on the Weeklies on Monday. The MJO is going to make a run at 4 and 5 which is very much what is being shown. I guess the question I have is whether we see some cold press that boundary south like we saw on ensembles yesterday at 12z? Again, that really looks like a pattern that would benefit northern Ohio at best. Troughs that have a more north south nature are fairly easy features to place on a map. Their depth and timing are unknown variables that have to be solve of course. When a trough gets placed on a southwest to northeast axis that is very positive, there is massive room for error. the most accurate place is probably the pivot are where the trough originally digs. I think that is why we are seeing modeling feedback in Southern California. How far the elongate trough presses is an unknown. My guess is that the trough will dig West and slowly (over a period of 7-8 days-ish) get kicked at least into the nation's mid-section. That is some sketchy stuff being modeled - meaning the actual outcome is likely different post d10. Modeling is still in two camps. One camp wants to put a trough out West, dig it, and then lift it out. Another camp doesn't want to be there long at all. So far, the operationals at 12z favor really digging it out there during the middle ten days of the month. The second window for a storm in February is possible when that trough gets kicked out. IF Canada fills with cold air and then combine that with changing wavelengths, wild stuff is always a possibility.
  5. Carvers Gap
    @AMZ8990 The CMC did about the same thing last the ICON but a hair to the west - over the TN River area out your way. Arkansas would probably be the beneficiary. Probably is a bit too close to really score, but no way that position is correct this far out. Just means one potential track of a potential storm is through middle TN. So that gives us three models with that track. 0z Euro, 12z ICON, and 12z CMC. Just something to watch. I know sometimes your end of the state takes a back seat, so wanting to make sure to point when you all have a shot.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Right now the GFS is all over the place. I think Jeff called it the "Choose Your Own Adventure" model. It has been for the past few days after d10. Some of its runs are a blast to look at and break down, but...Anyway, I don't think it is wrong about the trough out West. However, that evolution and that 500 low just spinning rarely works out. We just need some really strong cold to start showing up in order to undercut expected ridge at 500 after Feb 10. I like looking at the model just to see what it spits out. Sometimes it finds a piece of corn.
  7. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, the 12z GFS is already off the rails at 252. When modeling starts to dig energy from Idaho into California, the run just goes to pot. It may verify. Heck, I'd like to see if it could be done. Vancouver to Boise to LA just is counter intuitive.
  8. Carvers Gap
    True that. I do like the JMA for big coastals though.
  9. Carvers Gap
    But the Euro was in the West TN camp this morning...so that is a strong card. Still a long way to go, but some potential in the pattern. Again, going to really depend on where that trough diggs and goes neutral. The trend during recent runs is to dig it further west(not in the West) over like Texas. If that happens, west TN would be sitting nice. Additionally, with the positive tilted full-continent trough look after d10, would not be surprised to see the far western end of the state see some frozen precip.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Considering we don't talk about it much...LOL. But it sometimes can throw us a bone. 12z GFS has a similar system at 192. It is further east, but a similar look. I don't worry too much about details at this range, just the potential for an slp to move north. Looks to me like there is reasonable potential for a storm to come out of the GOM depending on where the trough sharpens up and the vort turns neutral. Could be a track anywhere from middle TN to just inside the coast or even the coast.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12 ICON has a snowstorm hitting west TN at the end of its run(180). Will be interesting to see the rest of the 12z suite. We are starting to get into at least a range where modeling can start showing at least some idea of that time frame as we get near the 7 days mark.
  12. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, PV looks fairly beat-up late in the 6z run. I wonder how well(this late in the season) the PV can spin back up? If it doesn't split, not sure how well it reconsolidates. If anything, one lean would be that it heads into the HB area which I wonder if ensembles are picking up on that late?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Houston? SMH. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Pretty massive snowstorm for portions of middle and west Tennessee on the 0z Euro around 200. Still way out there, but worth a look. 6z GFS has the ice/snow deal but over the Ohio River Valley on this run. Interesting development is the 6z GEFS flipping to an eastern trough d10-15. Ensembles are bouncing around all over the place. Something to watch. EPS looks like a good compromise at the moment with a weak trough out West. Still looks like a trough out west after Feb 10th, but again its holding power is in question. We do know from past experience it does not like to leave. That -EPO might try to kick it if it isn't too tall. Jax with some discussion about possibilities down the road - the next GEFS run backed those ideas up.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I know the Smokies had blizzard conditions during Hurricane Sandy, but did they actually hoist a blizzard warning during that event? They had 2' with high winds up top.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The EPO is quite negative on both the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS ensembles teleconnection graphs on WxBell. Been trending stronger for a couple of runs now. All of that is pretty loose optimism. There are definitely strong reasons to be pessimistic. Just adding some food for thought.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Those folks in SW Mizzou have to feel a bit jaded...And eastern Idaho must have a high threshold. They have been hammered this winter with massive drifts and blowing snow. Hawaii surprises me when I first see it, but just for a sec. Then I remember...big, tall volcano sitting all by its lonesome in the middle of a big, active ocean.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The benchmark of what a great winter is for me. Was sitting in Saturday school(making up snow days) with like 4-5" of new snow on the ground and still snowing.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The good thing is I don't think at this time that we are going to see an air mass anywhere near as cold as that one nor as prolonged. I remember driving to UT on the interstate that was down to 1-2 lanes for a couple of days, because the snow was frozen solid and wouldn't plow and wouldn't melt with salt. I think for now, just plan on a warm SER. I just hadn't realized that LR modeling had such strong, sprawling cold highs pushing eastward under the SER. Now, we saw this in early January and it never verified. So, I am taking these with a grain of salt until I see them backed up over the next 4-5 days on multiple runs. But still, great to talk about and interesting. On our wish list, as Mackerel noted, we want to see those big highs in play. Without those or some really cold air, those looks don't occur. But gives us something to watch anyway!
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, those were the days. Great decade with some great weather.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thank you. Here you go. This the MSLP anomaly on the 12z EPS. The second graphic is what is under that SER on the EPS run. If you have that feature, what is under the 18z GFS op run is wild. I wouldn't have though to look had it not been for the 18z GFS(which for those rolling their eyes...we know). That high sprawls on all three models. Not sure I buy all of that. 500 usually wins, but even the ensembles have some impressive highs(HP) for ensembles. That is a 1040+ hp on an ensemble heading south out of Alaska.
  22. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I was looking at the d10-15 on the 18z GEFS. At 500, it backed it up. The CFSv2 at 12z has the same deal. Cold is pressing and the airmass is colder. You know, I didn't look at the 12z EPS, but it has the same setup. The cold is pressing under the SE ridge. Not sure I buy that...again, we saw that once early in January on modeling and it busted. The 500 pattern won. So, I think we have to take into account that modeling has been far too cold at LR and we have to take into account(weighted much less obviously) that modeling was too warm during a pattern change in November. Holston, do you think you could post a gif of the daily mslp anomoly from d10-15 of the EPS(edit)? Watch that high spread out. I didn't look at the surface. The trend at 12z is for a much bigger high in the northern Rockies that spreads eastward. 2m surface temps and temp change reflect this d10-15. Pushes all of the way to the Apps. Holston, I think the WxBell analytics page might have more increments and provide a better look on the mslp anomaly. If you need me to, I can just post a screen shot. Need the daily version vs 7-day version. Thanks again. @weathertree4u, that is ice city verbatim. They have been cutting trees off power lines in my neighborhood for weeks on end. It is a sign! LOL. Overall, I suspect if this occurs it happens over the Ohio Valley...but at least it is interesting.
  23. Carvers Gap
    LOL!!! Ya think? And of course, I agree. I actually think that is the snowmegeddon pattern but we somehow get on the right side of the pattern. I would actually be nervous in Akron, Ohio, though. That strung out front is on almost all modeling. Prob somebody to our north is going to be shoveling.
  24. Carvers Gap
    This run isn’t gone be denied one last shot. 1053 high crashing down into MT to end the run. After these crap d10 ensemble runs today, I raise my glass to a DGEX throwback run! Verifation score might take a hit. Someone post the snow map with the best snow algorithm! Full d16 map...nothing to lose, right!
  25. Carvers Gap
    These snow amd ice amounts are gonna be just silly. #happyhourridesagain
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