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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The irony of that run is that the -EPO finally did what most of us think it would do during a normal year...it kicked that trough(which forms around Feb 10th) out of the West after 4-5 days. The ensemble does not support that, but I still don't think they run off the same core. I am not convinced that western trough holds. It may, but it may not. It is not like LR modeling has been overly accurate this winter. But not getting wrapped up in GFS at range. It's just that it shows what can happen if the EPO ridge is being modeled incorrectly. If it pushes into the coast by a fraction on the global scale, that trough kicks East. All other teleconnections were terrible on the 18z, but it does demonstrate what the EPO can do if positioned correctly. The MJO is driving the bus, but if it ever decides to let up or stay in the COD...if we have a -EPO, it would be the second most influential driver for MBY. Yeah, I hope we don't waste a potent trough this weekend. Hopefully, we can score something out of it!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Tough call. I think the snow in western North Carolina last week proves a well placed slp or wave can produce snow with marginal temps. We really need it to dig below our latitude on modeling. Those things have a tendency to trend northward over time. Another option is for the wave to do what occurred on the CMC which is to form a storm. This weekend's trough is not benign. Not all all troughs during winter produce, but there is a reason folks watch them. Details matter, and we don't have enough for the 9-10th time frame yet. Definitely worth tracking at this range though.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Something I noticed on the CPC MJO site...The MJO is all over the place regarding various models. The models that I trust the most are low amplitude warm phases for 8-10 days beginning in around 5-7 days and then COD again. When the MJO goes into the COD, that seems to cut the legs out from under the eastern ridge. Something to watch in modeling. Again, most of us are just looking for windows where the pattern might relax enough for that to happen. Also, the forecast record AO has nowhere to go but down. So, eyeballing the timeframe around the 20th for another window for winter weather potential. Obviously that is not set in stone. Again, I am not sure I trust modeling right now with the MJO all over the places. We will be fighting phase the rest of the winter unless something changes. Also, the trend to really build heights over Alaska is something to watch as well. A -EPO seems to trump everything but phase 6 of the MJO.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC and 0z Euro do have a western/middle TN snowstorm as the trough lifts out. Someone noted, that energy has been on modeling for a while, it has normally been rain or just weak. But the trough looks fairly potent in its structure though cold air is limited. Still watching that last wave on the initial trough in regards to NE TN as well on Friday. In the LR, modeling again favors a SER of varying strength w the EPS being the weakest with cold setting up in the front range. Confidence in that setup is growing from the 10th-15th. Both the GEFS and EPS do lift the trough somewhat out of the West around mid-month w a ridge still bellying under any eastern NA trough that forms. I have less confidence about what happens if/once the ridge lifts out of the West. Zonal would likely be my thoughts then around mid-month. There is a chance that the cold presses and that will have to be watched depending on its strength.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man...big win. What an offense!
  6. Carvers Gap
    That AO is huge on some modelling. For sure John, would be pretty awesome. Did one of the winters in the mid 2010s have a big +AO and we still had snow?
  7. Carvers Gap
    Regarding d9+ MJO...Indeed, the GEFS is quite different than the Euro and CFS which are low amplitude in warm phases or just COD, respectively. The GEFS goes at a decent amplitude through the warm phases. The ECMF barely goes into the warm phases at all. The ECMM is quite weak but is in the warm phases. Will be intersting to see which model leads here as that likley decides a good chunk of Feb. Also explains why the EPS is somtimes less bullish on the D9+ ridge duration. Also, just an interesting note(likley means nothing), the observed MJO took a turn directly opposite of where it was forecast yesterday.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler that is a fairly rough looking vortex at the surface(looking at your animation). Wonder if that is why modeling is struggling after the 10th? A displaced TPV will upend any modeling around d10. Thanks for the gifs this AM as well. I know those take some time. Big help!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Phil has obviously looked at the MJO forecast.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The last wave deal gets a mention by MRX this AM. Great disco for the upcoming week. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Models continue to agree on a very wet and mild pattern for Tuesday through Thursday, but there are some important details regarding the periods of highest rain chances, chances of thunder, QPF, and frontal passage timing that are not in good agreement. The ECWMF has remained fairly consistent from run to run, while the GFS has changed quite a bit, mainly in regard to the timing of the cold front passage and low pressure track. The ECWMF will be preferred for its consistency, but with low confidence on details, the forecast will be broad brushed with high PoPs for Monday night through Thursday, and few significant changes will be made from the previous forecast. The ECWMF keeps us firmly in the warm sector of the approaching system, tracking a surface low from LA to OH on Wed-Thu, then pushing a cold front through late Thursday. A slight chance of thunderstorms will continue to be mentioned Wednesday and Wednesday night, and while a severe threat cannot be ruled out due to the 50 kt LLJ, surface based instability will be mainly to our south. Heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will be a greater concern, and the HWO will continue to mention this. Storm total QPF in the range of 2-4 inches is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible. Low confidence due to model differences continue with the post- frontal pattern on Thursday night/Friday. The GFS`s more eastern track of the low results in more wrap around moisture into our area, while the ECMWF has more dry advection and very little post-frontal precip. Both have a broad longwave trough over the eastern Conus, so a low to slight chance PoP will be maintained through Friday and Saturday. Temps this period appear to support a chance of snow in some northern areas and higher elevations.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The MJO is just going to be a fight the rest of the winter as evidenced by Holston's satellite looks. Phases 2-3 are dying while the warm phases fire. Again, the way to beat that pattern is to have cold overwhelm the pattern and/or we get a strong -EPO which is able to fight off the MJO. That has happened in the past, but it is not the norm.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LR modeling... I feel like the 0z EPS and GEPS(huge step) took a step forward overnight. The EPS has the big ridge that weather tree has been talking about...in the East from the 10-15th. Indeed, it is robust. It then moves to a broader trough. The GEPS has it from the 9th to the 15th, and then reverses the pattern to another eastern trough late. The key in both of those runs is how long the EPO ridge holds vs retrograding to the northwest. I really don't think that piece of the equation is solved. It does looks like some form of a trough will dig around the 10th in the West, but I am not holding my breath. The Euro operational cuts the low off in the Southwest and has pushed back the formation of the western trough to the 11th. The -EPO on the 0z Euro operational is about as strong as one can get it. That is likely what caused the aforementioned storm to form on the 9th. I think a trough goes into the West eventually, but a ton of uncertainty after the initial modeled trough on the 7th rolls through. It is entirely possible that a trough could tuck into the West for a time. Duration is probably the question. Whether it is right or wrong, The 6z GFS and 0z GFS have understandably quite differing solutions after d10. The GFS/GEFS combo is really warm in part because that model does not cut off the southwest low, but digs a big trough earlier into the West which allows strong height rises at 500 in the East. Again, that little cut-off likely holds a big key in the downstream pattern.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z Euro has a significant snow storm around Feb 9th with some areas of the Eastern Valley modeled with 6-8" and lollipop areas of 10-12" on the southern Plateau and GSNMP. Pretty good thump for the Plateau and Eastern Valley. This is the first I have seen of that particular system, so I won't be too invested until we see it again. As has been mentioned ad nauseam, that is in the window that we have been tracking. The reason the window is a good one is because of the trough that is coming through on the 7th, which is about 36 hours later than modeling had it about a week ago, but is still well within the parameters that we have been looking at which is the 5-10th. The Euro would have sever and snow within about a four day time frame. That is not without precedent. Again, not getting too much invested in that run as that look was a first. Definitely worth some discussion since it is within day 7. As noted a few pages back, the Euro extends the duration of the trough through almost 240. The 0z and 6z GFS continue to show a decent last wave of three along the initial trough arrival. It is going to have to be watched. The Euro has a similar set-up but accentuates the trough right before the GFS does. Either model could be correct. It is in the realm of possibility that the first wave could be sever and the last snow.
  14. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I need to look at the initialization date. I had prepped your ENSO pics and realized the time stamp is Jan 1. Please disregard the Cansips I just posted. Hasn't updated on WxBell. Pretty crazy the CANSIPS hit that pattern on Jan 1.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I have learned as a Tennessee Volunteer fan to never ask the question, "Can it get worse?" The answer is, "Yes, yes it can." As noted earlier, I think the MJO is a fight the rest of the way unless there is some sort of major model bust that way. If we are going to steal a shot down the road, I think we are going to either have to have very cold air overwhelm the pattern or get some unlikely help in the Atlantic. But still, February is a month that often has surprises. But yeah, the MJO has not really looked good at any point this winter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Still watching the timeframe just after the 5th(trough is a nudge later which is no surprise). The 18z GEFS has frozen precip for western TN and NE TN. Then another little system dives in behind the initial front from the trough and brings more frozen precip to the eastern half of the state. Not a bad look. Nothing huge at this point, but I am still watching that last wave of precip on the initial front. The CMC at 12z also had eastern Arkansas in the mix. As evidenced with what happened in NC yesterday, a properly placed slp during winter can bring snow with even marginal temps.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Feb 5-7 window update: Looks like the deal where we get three waves of energy is still in play. The 0z CMC has a great track for portions of middle and west TN. That model has been better or equal to the GFS lately if what I have read is accurate. Both the GFS and Euro have the final wave, but are too far to the east to make a difference for E TN - but just by a hair. Will be interesting to see if modeling jumps on one of the three waves and really accentuates on of those last two waves. Not letting my guard down, just in a hurry.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think what we have to hope for is that is gets beat-up enough that it won't be as consolidated as it was during January. We just need it to not be wrapped-up so tight. I probably should have placed this in my "things to watch" list. Good find.
  19. Carvers Gap
    So, I think there are still two camps. Trough digs into the West or low gets cut-off in the West and the trough comes East. Great arguments for both, but at least there are two camps and not the one crappy camp. The 0z EPS doubled-down on the eastern trough never leaving after the 5th. Glad to have it in our corner as it generally scores the best. The 0z GEPS lends it some support but later. The 0z CMC cuts off the low. The 6z Euro operational does so, but not as much as 12z yesterday. 0z GEFS is western trough. The GEFS has been awful of late, but I think we still need it before feeling better about trends. @jaxjagman's share about the MJO definitely should sober-up even the most diehard snow lovers in the crowd - me being one of those. So some things to really watch: 1. The EPO ridge. It was very strong on the Euro operational and on the EPS. It does show some retrogression into the Aleutians on the EPS but is also strong on it. 2. Does the EPS teleconnect well? Sort of. Sort of not. Europe cools which is a good sign and that fits with the eastern US being cool. Aleutian highs don't exactly scream cold in the eastern US. There is sort of a weak weak low east of Hawaii. Heights do build into most of Alaska which teleconnects well to cold in the East. 3. The MJO. Have to think the MJO looks worse on the GEFS when compared to other models. The only think I can think that is driving the EPS is that the cold simply is so strong that it just wins the day. 4. Source region for cold. How strong is it? Source regions have not been terrible this winter. Fairbanks, Alaska, just logged a really cold January according to Joe D'Aleo. We just haven't had a mechanism to get it here. 5. Changing wavelengths. I would guess that the shorter wavelengths would make a big, western trough less likely. Granted, the EPS is actually longer wavelengths. LOL. 6. Does the low cutoff in the Southwest? As @PowellVolznoted the Euro has a tendency to hold energy in the Southwest too much. Right now, it seems to do it the least. Seems like the GFS/GEFS combo are having more troubles or they are scoring a coup. So we are probably stuck with two ironies here. Either the Euro solved the Southwest cut-off first or the GFS scores a coup. Not sure which horse to bet on there. 7. AO region in Canada. That might be the one of the main differences in the GEFS and EPS. The EPS raises heights in that region Final thoughts: As many have suspected, that low in the Southwest holds the key after Feb 10th along with where the EPO ridge is. As noted last night, there is a lot of spread just after the trough comes through next week, but a good chunk of February probably rests on what happens in about a 24-48 hour timeframe in the Southwest and whether it cuts off. Time will be at a premium today for me and tomorrow. Busy times. As for 12z...I am not holding my breath, but am also hopeful.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is crazy. We want their trough. They want our ridge.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah. On top of that the West Coast has been a mess on ensembles for several days after Feb 10 with some solutions that have been head scratchers. We have overcome poor MJO phases in prior winters, but we have to have a lot of cold in the pattern to do it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think the Euro control shows one option. If the low truly cuts off in the Southwest...that is a plus. That would mean the main trough could roll into the East. But is it right? Anyone claiming certainty this winter will be humbled quickly. The GEFS at 18z shows another, less wintry option. Lots of great discussions on this forum about the pattern in November repeating itself during winter. Would be neat to see that idea bear some fruit.
  23. Carvers Gap
    It they all showed something like that. Maybe. The spread on modeling after the 10th is massive. Trend is to diminish the western trough on the GEPS/EPS...but the MJO is a major problem. While the GEFS has been woefully inaccurates, prob going to need to see it jump on board. I have been out of pocket much of the afternoon. I will dig through the emsembles this evening if I get a chance. Before I get too invested, I am going to need that run of the EPS ensemble backed up by several runs. My guess is that things are going to keep bouncing around. This has been a one step forward, two steps back kind of winter. I am ready for two steps forward abd one step back.
  24. Carvers Gap
    One last nugget until later. The EPS control is an eastern trough from Feb 5 to the end of the run with zero western trough. It just reloads with one cold shot after another. Everyone knows the rules...huge grain of salt as reversals can always be reversed.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Well...shall we talk about the disappearing eastern ridge on the EPS? LOL. The 12z Euro operational has no western trough - zip. It has a cut-off and that is it. It ain't great, but the trough in the West does not hold. The 12z EPS is much different for the better. Have a project going on this afternoon. Maybe I need to do that more often. The SER is over TN for no more than 72 hours. EPS backs up the operational in that it cuts of a low in the Southwest. The "parent" trough moves east and leaves it. The cut-off tries to form a new trough which is promptly kicked into the middle of the country and eventually eastward by the -EPO. Not sure any of that jives with the MJO, but those are pretty massive improvements at 500. One could make a case now that the trough never holds in the West just based on that run(there are reasons it could be there in reality...mainly the MJO). The SER on that run of the EPS is literally just rolled out. That run is a continuation of the trend to cut-off the low in the Southwest, and that changes everything downstream. Nice run of the 12z Euro which definitely puts E TN in the game for snow with the third wave. Nice look. In a hurry. Feel free to discuss. Nice improvements across the board on the Euro. Will they continue? Who knows. LOL. For those new to the board, @nrgjeff with a great post above. Just another reason we have a great subforum and why I will be pulling for the Chiefs on Sunday. That is all from me until later. Have a great weekend, everyone!
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