Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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So, are we talking 40 degree temperature swing in Nashville from this time yesterday? -
LOL. About 1,000 different ways for things to get sideways in the valley. Oddly, my fear with this would be downsloping which causes the column to warm just enough to slow the onset of the snow. The warm-nose itself is probably either a product of warm air pushing up the valley or warm air created by the downslope. I want to see a strong system coming by to our southeast. That will pull the cold in quickly. Good to see reports of early changeovers. May signal some strong dynamics.
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That is a win given it was like 95 yesterday!!!! Awesome to hear.
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Who is going to be the one to post the 18z snow total map for the entire run?
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Have a feeling we have to deal with some 4-6 at some point.
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Snow maps are similar, but appears that it backs more so. System is about 2-3mb deeper at hours 36 and 39. Just a hair northwest of its 12z run.
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We want the water in regions 8-1 to warm in order to allow for convection. That would do it. @Daniel Boone had a great post about it earlier.
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8 and 1 have had cooler SSTs this year due to the La Nina. The current slight warming at the surface may be helping things there progress, and provide almost a weak Nino signature. As those areas warm temporarily, the convection/rain can form there more easily. As @jaxjagmanpoints out in the ENSO thread, cold lurks right below it. If it upwells, the MJO hits the wall IMHO. Tough, tough forecast after mid-month. Our fate may rest in an accurate ocean current forecast and an accurate wind forecast which might cause the upwelling cold water in the west central Pacific. When we get a tropical system in those areas, everything goes haywire because they basically measure outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Colder temps are found in cloud tops. The OLR signatures for the MJO can get false readings which is why we had the GEFS likely get ahead of things in mid-Jan.
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Here is a rough map of the MJO regions...
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Man, the 18z GFS is a run...
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Thanks for the MJO plot. Sure beats hanging out in 4-6 all winter. MJO plots give me a headache. LOL. Not a lot of squiggly lines on the right "hemisphere" of that plot...we take!
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One addendum about the CFS and the MJO, the CFS being too quick into those good MJO phases makes it tough to use as a model. I guess one could try to account for its bias, and work from there - kind of what I do but that model will leave one with egg on their face more times than not. Not sure which model has handled the MJO well though. The CFS being so quick has given it a big time cold bias. It did catch this cold snap though...only because it is cold all of the time. LOL!
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It did for sure. It has been too quick all winter, but has generally been right about the sequence of phases. It just doesn't account for the loops and jagged moves. The BOMM looked decent today. I will see if I can get a photo of that. The big mistake with models in the MJO, they don't seem to be able to get the "speed" of the MJO correct.
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Think I posted one about four hours ago. I just hadn't updated for the EPS which looks good. So, will add a few thoughts. We will be a risk sometime around the 20th(if models are taken verbatim today) of a flip back to the western trough and Aleutian hp. Very unsure about that or any solution at all after the 20th. Would be very rare for modeling to hold such a steep trough in place for more than a couple of weeks. Then again the West had a great trough for about three weeks. If at some point we see a severe cold shot(single digits for lows and highs in the lower 20s), wouldn't surprise me to see it flip right after that. Seems to be the pattern for winters in this area. Great debate which is not settled regarding if the MJO takes the tour through 8-1-2. It has already defied all odds and made it into day2 of phase 8, hence the change to cold tomorrow night. Going to have some warm air masses intermingled between these cold fronts....a pattern with wild swings.
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18z GFS advertising yet another storm next weekend.
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Evidently, the RAP and HRRR got into the good stuff as well....maybe even the RGEM. LOL.
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We really need to add a wow button. No idea if that occurs, but that run is impressive. Mountains may get hammered.
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I have seen spring storm dump huge amounts in the mountains after very warm days preceding. Rates will overcome a lot if the rates are there.....Happens out west nearly every June.
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MRX still fairly conservative right now. Think they are focused on the severe threat. Rightfully so, they mention that ground temps could limit accumulations in the valley. Personally, I think the mountains get walloped.
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RGEM looks good. SLP was a bit more wrapped up as evidenced by the NW jog.
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TRI's all time high is 79 which was set in 1950. Looks like we may miss that by a couple of degrees, but set the daily record of 77. But it is going to make the 48 hour temp change something to behold. Also, the distance between the max temp for the month and the min temp for the month may be one of the more impressive that we will see.
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Seriously, I am not sure I can remember tracking a snow system with highs in the mid-70s 36 hours before @*Flash*.
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But look at what is approaching on the horizon. These are the 24 our temp changes by 12z Monday, January 3rd. The 30 degree swings have already passed through western areas by the time this hour has passed on the 12z GFS.
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Definitely want to keep an eye on the system around the 6th-7th. The 12z Euro has pressed that system south and east. @Holston_River_Rambler already has us taken care of.
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Long range post....will update this post when the EPS is through. So looks to me like this pattern holds to around the 20th, give our take 2-3 days. The trough is retrograding into the Aleutians during week 4(late in week three if you look at the GEPS). The GFS extended last night had a similar look. The GFS extended holds cold into week 4. Looks about right to me at this moment. Those AN heights would flip the pattern back west later in January. However, we are about to test a theory that @Daniel Booneand I were discussing yesterday. With no NAO block which essentially blocks the eastward push of cold, the cold may be free to push eastward despite the 500 configuration. It may undercut it through the end of the month before finally giving way to cold in the Mountain West to end the season. If you look at the surface temps on the GEFS extended, that is exactly what it does. The GEFS is slower with that and looks more like an Alaskan block with a large trough over NA. Honestly, by the time we get to Jan 20th, we all may want some warmer weather. So there is that. To me, It looks an awful lot like the MJO rotates through 8-1-2 and then back into the warmer phases. Whether it can get back around for one last shot of cold in Feb remains to be seen. Huge grains of salt as that is sandbox mode speculation right there.
