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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the 12z GEFS has a beefy snow mean for the central and NE valley along with the Plateau. Been creeping up since 0z.
  2. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, you are digging deep if you are dialing up the Australians!
  3. Carvers Gap
    I hadn't even planned on watching much of the 12z run until I saw the 12z ICON posted in the MA forum. The CMC has had it for a few runs kind of off and on, but just tough to believe it at times. That said, the CMC has done really well this winter with systems in this region. But yeah, something had to have changed to get that abrupt of an agreement. Might just be that models are converging on a solution - but not sure on that.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro trended NW and slightly less strung out. How much it climbs the coast is a big deal for NE TN folks. Right now, the CMC is right in the middle...and was closer to be correct with higher accumulations than other modeling at range. Again, really doubt modeling has caught up to this - if real.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Something has changed in modeling for that many global models to all of the sudden reach agreement. My guess is that modeling has not caught up to this storm - trends could obviously be better or worse! LOL. We will certainly take a good 12z suite of operatonals though!
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro...E TN people you are going to like this run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That bowling ball appears to want to head SE and then ride up the EC.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The entry into the western forum area(in terms of latitude) is important. The 6z GFS-para vs the 12z GFS really illustrate this if memory serves me correctly. Para is further north.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The -NAO, in my experience, is usually less of a culprit of pushing things to the GOM than say a really strong -EPO. There is really nothing to dig a storm deep into the south. I expect a lot of sliders, bowling balls, and systems that pop along the coast. Area of confluence is right over North Carolina. Whether it happens or not, that is the real question. However, this is why eastern valley folks like NAOs. Just stinks that we don't have a bit more cold to work with or these would snows and placement would simply be the questions vs having to have a perfect track. Bowling ball looks like it could certainly be a score for someone in the Upper South...question is where?
  10. Carvers Gap
    As for Kuchera or non-Kuchera, I just roll with whichever gives MBY more. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC has 4-8' in the valleys on the 8th and 9th of NE TN with a foot in the mountains. So, that is the CMC, GFS, and ICON that have this now. No idea if real, but worth a look.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Noticing some wide spread with snowfall algorithms with the 12z GFS. Pivotal looks reasonable. The 12z CMC just pasted all of NE TN.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Pivotal has the NE TN snowfall on Jan 8th on its site. Sharp, sharp cutoff. 6-7" from say Hawkins Co to the east. Trends will be a total bear for this. I would not assume this system trends NW as previous systems have. This has been treading steadily SE as the block has been felt - so, this could be a one off. However, seeing a couple of models jump on this system at 12z at least catches my eye. Would be feeling really good in western NC about right now.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS and ICON are very close to a snowstorm now on the 8th/9th for NE TN. The ICON has measurable snow here, and the GFS just pasted all of western North Carolina and NE TN from Sullivan Co eastward. Event has to be "super close" in regards to temps as WxBell has a major event but TT does not. WxBell has 5-6" across NE TN in the valleys. The ICOn has 2-4."
  15. Carvers Gap
    To varying degrees, the 0z CMC and GFS open up the flood gates in terms of Arctic air. The CMC manages to get the job done before hour 240 - likely too fast, but very cold.
  16. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS just hammers middle and west TN around the 10th. Storms are definitely feeling the block now.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, 17-18 (late Dec/early Jan) when we had that monster -EPO....one of the driest patterns I have seen during mid-winter and very cold. The North Fork of the Holston froze over here. I could be wrong, but I doubt with this background rainy pattern that we go very long without a storm pattern. If we get cold, might start seeing some 70s analogs start to show up.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Very cold northern hemisphere on the 18z GFS-Para as Holston notes...-30s at the very end of its run into North Dakota. That will probably change in future runs one way or another. That said, we want to see that type of cold showing up periodically on modeling during the next week. Saw some hints this morning that the flow was reversing late in the d14-16 time frame. So, seeing a slight rend towards some extremes just after the middle of the month.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Quintessential Nina cold pattern - meaning some Ninas are warm, but that is how it looks when cold. Cold lays NW to SE. Winter storms attack the base. Great find!
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS appears to have gotten the message - for no. Good run. One chance right after another.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Beauty of a Rockies to EC trough post 300 on the 12z EPS. Same feature that has been there for days, but deeper. If we see that persists, that is a good signal that particular trough at 500 will be quite a bit stronger. The EPO ridge is also better positioned and a bit stronger. Good look.
  22. Carvers Gap
    IF we can hold that pattern, should be one after another in terms of things to track.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That is the @tnweathernut window. LOL. Yeah, that looks really good on modeling.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Something to keep an eye on. The 12z Euro is actually SE of its previous run. Will be interesting to see if that comes back NW or if the block is being felt now - good test. The CMC was super close to something good. Almost looks like it is lacking precip for that vigorous of a vortex.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Man, Holston, I may be taking apples and oranges. I really need to look at the dates/times. You are talking the Tuesday deal? Sorry, I was talking Jan 8-9.
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