Carvers Gap

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run. Not used to seeing it so robust. Some of you might be wondering about maps. It is not a tease. Been out of memory for about two years. Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space! LOL...kidding, not kidding. CG2 might be in my future.

Re: 12z Euro. Anyway, fairly substantial changes in temps beginning Wednesday and really deviates from its 0z run by Fri/Sat next week. Tells me the Euro "might" be playing catchup. The run-to-run temp changes (later in the run) over the East are more drastic than what I posted above. About it. Good luck to everyone tonight. Will give the ensemble a look later and see if the EPS has any changes for midweek.

The 12z Euro is nearly 30 degrees colder over middle TN next weekend.

Major change at 174 as the 12z Euro pushes the front through. Much colder run at this time frame.

Light mix is showing up next Saturday over the Plateau at 168.

The 12z Euro at 168 has rediscovered cold in the eastern Plains which was completely absent at 0z. I think it is still biased in holding this cold back...Who know, I learned long ago not to discount it.

The Euro at face value looks similar to 0z. However, it is finally correcting to placing more cold in the Plains. A step towards the GFS if you will.

Overall, the 12z Euro looks to hold the ZR over the Ohio River. BUT, the model has cooled considerably.

Overall, the 12z Euro has trended colder over the SE in general though AN temps certainly remain south of the TN border - they just are't as warm. So right now, the trend is towards the GFS in regards to temps. Not there yet and likely won't be this run, but a move in that direction. At 111, it is 5-10 degrees colder than 0z over middle and west TN.

On a very small scale(just looking at KY/TN, the Euro has trended further SE with its cold at 102. It isn't by much at this point, but may bake a difference down the line.

Can't see the surface yet, but the Euro is much colder at 82 re: run-to-run temp change. Edit: Think this is just a case of the Euro being overly warm and coming back to other modeling.

Out to 66, the 12z Euro is a tick faster with the front (maybe 30-40 miles faster).

@PowellVolz, definite uptick in overall precip amounts is driving the uptick in snow totals. No idea if that verifies, but noticeable change. I know you mentioned that earlier. Just following up regarding the 12z Euro op.

12z Euro is a definite uptick in snow accumulations

12z Euro is rolling. Will split my commentary between two threads...the storm thread for tonight's potential even and then back here for the overrunning event. Will be interesting if the Euro finally moves to the CMC/GFS combo. Wasn't there overnight...so really looking for trends - especially if it speeds up the front next week or has more cold behind it.

Ditto that.

That is awesome and thanks. What the GEFS depicts is a glacier being built over the MidWest. The highs migrate to that cold. What folks can't see on that depiction is that the southern branch keeps attacking the base of that high. It is non-stop on that run. I am out to 270 on precip type, and it is just crazy. Basically the -NAO pushes confluence and cold over this region.

@Holston_River_Rambler, do you have the ability to make a GIF of the MSLP(not the anomaly, just MSLP) of the 12z GEFS? There is a 1054 hp on the ensemble over front range in Canada! The GEFS is just one system after another attacking cold which slowly(and I mean slowly presses eastward). The MSLP map(I know gif speed is an issue), but I think it does a good job of depicting all of this. The US or NA view should do it...just whichever one has that big high sling SE. Thank in advance if you are able and understood if you are too busy.

Need a "wow" emoji. Not a "good wow", but just "wow." That is craziness. Might be the only time I am glad to be inside of the little white circle in NE TN. Quite literally, I would be the only place in TN without ice...ya'll come on over if it gets bad!!!!

If the 12z Euro comes on board, likely time for a thread. This event literally lasts for a week on the GFS. So, looks like modeling has the cold again. As BNA notes, really tough to know where that boundary goes. Might even wait until 0z (to make a thread) to see if modeling continues to hone-in on this. But this is thread worthy if ever there was one - if it holds.

Just a nasty, nasty set-up.

The CMC reloads the ice pattern again for middle and west TN late in the run. My guess(and it is only that) is that modeling is underestimating the extend of the cold front. My gut says that cold slides along the surface for 100-150 miles further than what is shown there - if that model is even right. I can't decide right now if I want any part of that!!!!!

The Tropical Tidbits 12z GFS 258 snow accumulation map is full Euro from the other day...obviously it includes ice. But it is pretty hilarious. Nearly the entire state is green! Never seen anything like it.

Seems like TYS has been on or near that line all winter for several events.

Give me no part of the GFS at 246 - none at all. Want no part of that.