Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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TRI is now just 0.4F above normal for the month. Considering the first two days were +29 and +17, that is a big turn around. TRI has also received about 4.9" of snow which occurred as part of several nickel-and-dime events. Unless something drastic occurs, TRI has a real chance at finishing the month below normal for temps. How many of us had that in our seasonal forecasts? I sure didn't!!! LOL. But I did get the end of December warm shot correct - woo, yeah(said in a Bueller, Bueller flat tone). It is pretty amazing the work that this forum did in the pre-winter thread that we do during the summer and fall. Lots of great analogs, ENSO discussions, etc. The ENSO thread itself has some great work in it as well. It is a group effort and the body of work is pretty interesting in how well it works through so many scenarios. If you are new to the forum, take some time and go back through that set of posts. Seasonal forecasting(pro or hobby) is IMHO some of the toughest work out there. I don't stay overly tied to the seasonal forecast though. Some pieces are just inevitably going to miss. Chaos is unpredictable for reason. However, some good stuff in there. We might be the smallest subforum, but ya'll produce great content. These storm threads have been a blast to follow. And hey, we are here year round. It is a little slower during the summer, but there is still interesting stuff at times. BTW, early look at the next winter season. Moderate to weak El Nino is possible. Moderat is no beuno. Weak El Nino's which follow La Nina's I believe can be quite good. The SST gradient will be strong around the Nino and give a stronger ENSO signal. I foresee a mean trough over the East through much of the last 2/3 of winter, BUT beware...Nino winters can start late to very late. Summer and fall could well be seasonal, especially late summer. The hangover from La Nina may keep the first part of summer warm. Decembers are often rainy and slighlyt AN. Wonder if we get a flip to cold right around or just after Christmas this time? Maybe we see some snow showers in October this year?
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With so much cold and an active STJ through the end of the month, we really have about two weeks of good snowstorm tracking ahead. They won't all pan out, but some have a good chance to. Looks like the pattern is trying to flip the trough out West for February. This time modeling really likes cold to push for a week or so, even after the flip. The lack of a massive -NAO should allow the cold to push southeast in an MJO 1-3 set-up before finally giving way to a thaw. Would not surprise me at all to see winter make another final comeback after that thaw. Been a decent winter for many. Weak La Nina's can be great patterns. There is now way modeling has each individual storm modeled well. With so much in the pipeline, it is likely a matter of time before one of these connects along the eastern seaboard.
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Interesting to see the 18z RGEM move that much... something to watch.
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Agree on that. Pretty much sums it up.
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For all intents and purposes, all but the Euro connect on something on their 12z runs. The GFS is close to multiple events. The CMC has a monster at 192. Lots of energy running around. As the Euro just showed(not to the good this time), things can change quickly with this much cold and a relatively active STJ.
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I won't stick a fork in this one quite yet with the 12z GEFS surprisingly coming on board. Need to see if the GEFS/EPS ensembles have a western cluster of lows compared to what operationals depict, especially for folks in NE TN. These are sneaky systems in this area. Within the 72-96 range this year, TRI has 3x been moved from significant accumulations to hard-earned back end snow. I would be very surprised with the SER does not fight during the next 10 says. I certainly could happen, but think it likely we connect on one one these.
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Sharpen up a bit(steeper) and/or then have the strength of the front be weaker and/or need the high to be north or further west IMHO. Lots of ways to gain latitude and back the flow. My guess is the SER will fight some. That probably is the key...just get that synoptic feature in place, and the rest takes care of itself.
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That almost looks like the same run with the exception of the 12z from yesterday having thermal issues which it shouldn't. Just have to think this jogs west during the next few days of modeling. Interestingly, the UK wasn't completely wrong with the last system, but it did miss the middle TN snows. Jeff's post above is interesting. Both model biases in play....GFS with a progressive nature for SLPs which take the low road, and the Euro which could be missing finer details. Will just watch trends during the next couple of days. It would seem unlikely that modeling would hold that position for the next five days as the last three storms(even they system Holston shows with his trend gif) have trended well northwest during the final 5-6 days of modeling. It seems like the NW trend halted overnight. It is highly likely that the system rides the front which comes through TR night. I would suspect that front doesn't press as far as originally modeled. Again, something that has occurred for 2-3 seasons in a row. But who knows....interesting look and certainly one to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.
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MRX morning discussion.... Next round of weather looks to possibly be more impactful, but unfortunately at this time there is still some major differences in deterministic models, and ensemble guidance. Models are in somewhat good agreement that there will be a southward diving trough across the plains, and a surface low developing near the northern GoM. Biggest difference in the models (at this point) is how strong and how far south to take the mid level low, either through the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. If the weaker GFS solution verifies, then expect cold, but mostly dry conditions... If the stronger ECMWF solution verifies the low goes more over the Tennessee Valley and precipitation will make it up to the western side of the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing across the area until later in the day on Saturday, so any precipitation that does occur Friday into Saturday will likely be mainly snow. Am not quite yet ready to bite off on the snowier ECMWF solution, as it appears to be under-doing the downsloping that would occur Friday into Friday night if it verifies. Again, still a lot on uncertainty on IF it will even precipitate at all, but it will be worth keeping an eye out on this weekend system as it gets closer.
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LOL. This is heading for Nashville! Last storm had nearly the same trend. Odd that the GFS is not picking it up. I feel mildly better now that the ICON has it.
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Image not found....Must be a GFS storm map for this weekend.
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EPS doubles down....12z and 18z comparison. If the Euro is wrong, it is going to go down swinging.
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So looks the Euro has the nod at that range right now. We take!
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What is crazy, though the 12z GFS missed on the storm this weekend...it has nearly five separate systems which result in snow during the range of its 384h midday run.
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The 12z EPS has a similar evolution of the storm, almost identical. Control is slightly less than the OP, but almost identical track. So the operational has good support from its ensemble. Of note, the 12z GEFS doesn't look that far from the Euro - just a lighter version.
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Yeah @tnweathernutkept having to remind me that modeling really liked the backside snow development with this. I had my doubts modeling was correct. Verified nicely. He was on the money as usual. Been snowing here most of the day. No big accumulation, but that might be my favorite part of this entire system.
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During the last three storms, it seems like the western envelope of modeling at this range has generally been correct IMHO. Anyone see that differently? Seems like all 3 storms had sharp northwest trends for 2 days worth of model runs, then jogged back the opposite direction by maybe ~10-20% of that mileage. But for now, we need to get that storm on all three globals. It is on 2/3.
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Have not seen their discussion. If it was the morning disco, they were working off just a few oddball runs showing this. With back-to-back Euro runs, they will likely give it some consideration. With 5-6 days to go, they have room to go that way if need be. Never know, the Euro could be erroneously holding energy back which would allow for the 12z run to occur. That said, seems to me the cold air is not getting as far south as LR modeling had it, hence the NW jog.
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The great thing is that is two straight runs by the Euro with this storm. The Canadian has it has well, but is a bit further east.
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Here is the 24 hour Kuchera for folks to our south to see. The other image cut those totals off. It also eliminates previous snow fall from the remnants of today and also TR. It does not encompass the snowfall that continues to the NE. This is a solid, historical track verbatim.
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12z Euro Kuchera map for the weekend storm. Subtract about 1" north of I40 in the valleys due to the TR system.. Cold air is in place. This is snow or no at this point.
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Been out for a bit, did I miss anything?
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Ended up with somewhere around 2" snow after the dry slot yesterday afternoon. Had about 0.5" of ice yesterday morning in the form of sleet and freezing rain.
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And want to see the influence of the MJO, take a look at what the model is getting ready to do for the rest of the run....those really, really deep troughs that push well below us are suspect I think.
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At 0z a lot of that energy for Saturday went through the Straits of Florida at 162 and then to the Bahamas. Now the energy is sliding across the GOM and the NW shield of precip encompasses most of North Carolina. It looks to me like modeling is dancing between the first piece of energy on Saturday and the one trailing behind it by a few days. No way modeling has any of that nailed down.
