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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Two very distinct MJO camps right now. First one is the EMON which came out yesterday(Euro LR). That is a BIG break in continuity for it. This one is the NCEP GEFSBC from this morning. Pretty steady. Sorry for the different sized photos. Thought I had them resized similarly. Anyway, those two solutions would create basically two, entirely different patterns over North America. That is a massive break from continuity by the EMON.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Good trends on today's GEFS extended as well. Similar look aa the Weeklies. Really hoping that modeling is feeling the disruption of the PV.
  3. Carvers Gap
    If one looks at the last week of the 18z GEFS, it has remarkable agreement with the Euro Weeklies.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That is awesome.
  5. Carvers Gap
    There are some nice weeks like BullCity posted. The thing I find encouraging is that the actual beginning of the pattern is on ensembles. Seems like the past few winters have featured Weeklies patterns which stayed 2-3 weeks out and never got closer. If I was looking for a problem, the only concern I would have is that some good looks in November dumped into the West after first being depicted for the East. The Weeklies seem to split the difference between the November and December pattern and also fits SSW climatology in terms of blocking as you and Holston have mentioned (Jeff as well). I don't like the MJO setup right now, but the SSW and -NAO could counterbalance that. Encouraging run for sure!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, Holston. This is a 30 day 500mb map of the Euro Weeklies which runs from Jan 13th to February 12th. IF it is right, those anomalies might be stronger than that. Cold air would move south from Alaska into the Mountain West(front range) and then move eastward. My guess would be that Alaska is being fueled by cold from easter Siberia as evidenced by the 850 temps growing colder as the month goes on. There are some really good weeks buried in that 30 day map below. The blue arrow is obviously the path of cold air on the model. The red is either cold fronts dragging into the GOM and tapping the Gulf or systems moving along the Gulf phasing with strong cold fronts. Confluence would be over the East. As long as we can avoid the trough tucking into the West and holding(need a little help in the west with even the slightest ridge), and that keeps coming eastward. Pretty much the entire run from just after the 10th is this pattern. I would be happy with just three weeks of that! Huge grain of salt for all newcomers and tread lightly with LR maps. The great thing is that we are seeing this pattern evolution on the GFS(18z has it) and all global ensembles at 12z. Trough tucks into the SE, slight ridge pops out West, the pattern below commences.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah. It is a nice run. Hoping Holston posts a gif of the run. If not, I will post a screenshot of the 30 day 500 map - basically doesn't change so it would give everyone a good idea. He was bullish yesterday on the strat having a big impact. He got some serious backing today and really during the past 3 0z/12z suites. Looks like a really good call on his part.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Webber is on fire today. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, have those Euro Weeklies ready to roll? You get the honors.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Some of those patterns are not too far from where we are now, especially 09-10. Difference is the cold source.
  11. Carvers Gap
    For fun...Here are some historically great 500mb patterns for the TN Valley forum area during winter.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the d12+ GEFS, EPS, and GEPS now "splits" the western trough, and send part of it eastward. That is a good thing. The 12z EPS looks really good if one takes into account it is likely woefully undergoing the its trough(been a bias for months) underneath those blocks. The improvement since 12z yesterday is the eastern ridge appears temporary(at least for now - modeling is all over the place. I am a huge fan of the -NAO slows down flow and creates excellent confluence. Some great winters have had it. Some years with the Pac being the only dominant block, the flow is too fast. NW flow in Kingsport is also a non-starter as we don't get upslope stuff. A true -NAO (which is not battling the Pacific/MJO) is money during winter for east facing slopes. NE TN can get snow from an Atlantic fetch which is common during -NAO phase storms - TYS as well. The Christmas Eve Storm benefited from a PNA and the NAO both. Without the NAO, that storm likely cuts. Problem with the NAO right now...it is on its own and no cold source. If that NAO had Siberian cold to draw from...would be money - even if on its own. Our biggest problem regardless of the Pac or Atlantic blocking is that the cold is in Siberia. Saw Siberia nearly set an all-time record HP - think it was 1076 if the twee was correct. We need some of that here. I have my doubts that we get Canada seeded with cold anytime soon. Our cold will have to be homegrown.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Para-GFS on Pivotal is pretty much there.
  14. Carvers Gap
    They are feeling the disruption now for sure. If the SSW can simply jostle the TPV and keep it perturbed, that would be the best scenario(as long as it doesn't tighten up). Seeing some disruption to yesterday's second week of Jan modeling. Guessing the Euro is slow with that trough. GFS Para also has the Jan 3/4 storm. Just read a post by Cosgrove that said each trough is going to press the eastern ridge further east(once it forms) - meaning trough comes through, ridge resets a bit further eastward, wash-rinse-repeat until it slides OTS. Trends on modeling during the next couple of days should be interesting(could be good, could be bad). The CFSv2 seasonal is back to a trough in the East for January.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And modeling is having a rough time in the short term. Check out this westward jog(forecast Trent) for the system that was forecast to snow for E TN at one point.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Just digging through the MJO this morning...lots of options on modeling. Most of those options deal with the right hand side of the MJO phase diagram. Generally speaking, there is a trend to go into phase 2 which is colder and then propagate around the to 4. The GEFS is very aggressive with this and only the hi-res goes into 2. They ECMWF goes 2/3 then COD. Phase 2 is colder. Phase 3 gets colder the further one gets into January. Phase 4 is warm. Seems like only the GEFS is wanting to gain amplitude with its MJO forecast, and its OLR map is curtly more aggressive than say the CA.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Big thing for the LR forecasts is to see that trough in the East moving forward in time mid mont. GEFS is definitely the better of the 3. It is worth mentioning that the GEFS did really well with the Feb '18 strat split. That said, if we steal a storm shortly after Jan1(before the warm-up), that would be big. Something to watch.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS and 0z CMC also have it to varying degrees.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Sneaky system on the Euro operational at 156. The GFS has had this off and on.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the first two weeks of January just after the New year(barring a thread the needle situation) have flipped warm. That said(and I really even hate saying this, because if I had a nickel...) in about 14 days, the 18z GEFS is showing a workable pattern. Trends have been pretty good this afternoon. Need to see those moving forward in time and increasing in relevance as they get closer...I can't do the backend winter deal from the past two years where we waited, and waited, and waited. This could be a pattern change or just a relaxation of the pattern from December. I simply don't know. This morning I would have said pattern change...now maybe more like a pattern relaxation. Some great SSW posts this morning - that event will have a big say so going forward. Lots of uncertainty from mid-January onward. The MJO is going to fight anything good for the East. The -NAO should win from time-to-time. However, not having cold in Canada is a major problem. Like a broken record, I say this every year. Some truly great winters never got going until mid-January. However, Nina climatology will very likely make sure the Mountain West scores this winter.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Just spitballing....One thought I had this morning is that we are long overdue for a stretch of winters with -NAO/Atlantic blocking. If we could hit such a stretch, that gives us many more scenarios towards better winters and could offset MJO problems. The Pacific is defiantly a more consistent driver for cold when it is favorable. However, the Atlantic is saving our tails this winter. I fully believe this winter would have been very warm had the NAO not flipped negative unexpectedly. The NAO deal is likey tied to the AMO being in a warm phase for us...but maybe this(a stretch of NAO winters) is kind of a run-op or a cue that it is about to flip during the upcoming years.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Also, for TRI folks...I noticed that MRX is mentioning patching freezing drizzle in the AM. Just a heads up.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think we are going to be fighting the MJO the rest of the way - very much agree. Hoping this strat split and high latitude blocking will provide some balance this year. I liked where the 18z GEFS went. Really hope that holds.
  24. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, the 18z GEFS and GFS support your idea that we are going to see cold. The 18z CFSv2 does as well. The GEFS extended is meh, but it ran on an earlier run today I think. So, trends this afternoon have been quickly to a more favorable solution. Maybe those ensembles are "feeling" the strat split now? You may be on to something.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't give up on your cold shot just yet. A little help from the PAC, and things would get interesting just after the 12z EPS run. The thing to watch now is how the EPS corrects now that it wants a trough in the East late in its run. Won't take much to take the d10-15 look on the EPS and make it better...and won't take much to make it worse. LOL. What is the phrase from last week? Living on the edge! This is your cold shot if it happens! Again, I like 09-10 and 18-19 as SSW events. 09-10 Turned out pretty well I think. Having that -NAO and -AO up there is to our benefit with the SSW.
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