Carvers Gap

On WxUnderground, I am seeing stations at or below freezing on the north and northwest sides of Knoxville.

My biggest snow this winter was actually from a lee side low. Always the chance for a Miller A....no way to know this far out of course.

A generational event.

Just looking at the EPS this afternoon...looks like the pattern will repeat one more time. NAO does re-fire d10-15. Cold builds out West...bet it slides east as the GEFS extended had last night for the first week of March(late in that first week). This has been the base pattern all winter. Actually, November had the same pattern but climatology fought the cold coming SE. Think Cosgrove is on the right track there.

Reposting as I failed earlier to put a time stamp on this comment.... Something to keep an eye on for NE TN and SW VA folks...the 12z Euro is implying that there could be a mix at TRI and snow/sleet in SW VA before the cold is scoured out. edit: Thursday morning!

One other thing to watch in the LR, the Euro and GFS again both set a really nice boundary just after d8. To me that is a little bit early. However, maybe we get one more system to run an east/west boundary prior to a brief warm-up to end the month and more winter later during the first week of March. Seems like two years ago, we hit 80 during February here at TRI. LOL.

Just for posterity, 41 here in Kingsport. What a temp gradient!

They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice! Memphis is close to a huge run there.

For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress. Hiccup in the programming or design. Gets me ALL the time. WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model. Drives me crazy!

As a heads-up, those are 6z. Pivotal gets me all of the time when it switches runs.

Looks like the NAO tries to refire after d10. The Euro MJO continues to forecast a move into the COD - dives out of 7, head fakes to 8, moves to 6, and then moves back to colder phases. Larry Cosgrove who has done a fantastic job this winter hinted that he thinks we may see the current pattern repeat again during March. The MJO is hinting at that as well. He also has stated that when we break to spring that it will be quite abrupt. He is calling for a scorcher of a summer as well. March can hold a surprise or two. If the NAO re-fires that is a good thing for March...we don’t want that index negative for summer as all.

The trend Monday into Tuesday is a drastic reduction in temps in the eastern valley. There are places in E TN and NE TN which are 10-15 degrees colder. The CMC and Euro are now showing signs that the front may catch the precip in the eastern valley. Really need to watch this. There is a real possibility that the cold is being under modeled in the eastern valley.

The 18z RGEM is tracking an areas of weak slp from the Panhandle of FL through the Carolina Piedmont with seemingly little energy transfer. Back side of the slp switches to light snow in ETN. It is on the eastern envelope of storm tracks not implausible. The EPS at 12z moved several of its slp member tracks into the same vicinity as the RGEM.

I was thinking that as much as we like to give modeling a hard time(me included), they have been remarkably steady for this. Obviously, I am hoping for a shift for MBY....but they aren't moving much. The CMC is the first hiccup which I have seen.

For eastern folks, I do have at least give mild attention to this 12z CMC look for Tuesday. The slp(as is) is likely too weak. However, if that strengthens even a little...that is not benign for the eastern valley IMHO. That is different from what we have seen recently. Modeling has trending towards this inland runner during the past few runs. The para has a similar look but runs a shadow up through the eastern valley which is no good. If the CMC consolidates, that is good. Might just be a hiccup, but the RGEM was pretty much there as well at 84.

Might not hurt to add Middle/West TN to the thread title or tags so when we go back and search(in future years), it will be easier to find....

The 12z CMC/RGEM is developing a low which takes the low road Tuesday. Modeling seems to be split between sending some energy up the west slopes of the Apps and then developing a lee side low or hybrid Miller A OR just going with a Miller A. Some fairly different solutions out there right now regarding Tuesday. ICON/CMC camp vs GFS.

Nope. We just follow each threat. Been middle and west for several days. Totally fine with that BTW.

Do we need a new storm thread for the next system or just want to rename the other thread as some sort of multi-day overrunning thread? It doesn't matter to me as I have no horse in the race...but what is being modeled is significant. Maybe wait until 12z and then work it.

Thanks, man, for keeping our middle and west TN folks in mind. I know we have been focused on the eastern sub-forum areas this winter, but glad we can get the folks out in those areas (who have waited patiently...Memphis has waited seemingly forever) involved in our winter discussions.

Some fairly significant trends with the MJO today. The EURO is now forecast to hustle out of 7 and even duck into 8 for a couple of days. The GFS is now forecast to hustle out of 7(big trend last it was not even getting out of 7 a few days ago...and looping back into 6 if memory serves me correctly), into the COD, and then back to warm phases. The good news is the MJO is forecast to get out of 7. Now, both head towards warmer phases at some point...but check the EMON (posted it above) as one potential that might occur. I suspect we are about to see some model discontinuity coming up. Often, when we see this push by the Euro...we see changes just after d5. Let's see its next couple of runs. That, at the very least, shows a trough in the East for 3-4 days. With the cold in the pattern right now, 3-4 days of a trough in the east would be nice.

Latest EMON is out for the MJO....well, isn't that interesting. Makes a beeline out of 7 into the COD, makes a move to 6, and then back to background cold phase COD. Ya'll, I don't think winter is over yet in eastern areas. It might be, but I think we have a system or two yet to track. Climo definitely begins to work against some with each passing week after this week...but this year just has the feel that this is now actually winter. We will see. And not the pattern hasn't been pushed back...it is just not centered over E TN. This is a middle and west TN pattern and a doozy at that. It is one that may well be remembered for some time in the western areas of our subforum.

Just looking at the snowmegeddon snow axis for west TN, it has shifted into that SE region....there is definitely a press going on there.

Euro is east with most of its features next week. We need to keep an eye on these trends. Sullivan may have some issues Monday if 12z is correct...nothing like out west but a mixed bag.

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN. And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just not the NE corner...yet. Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture. I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm. That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday. This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.