Carvers Gap

Cold shot in the d5-15...not a fan.

Beautiful day today! Yesterday was cold, windy, and raw with snow falling from the sky on occasion. Today is postcard worthy. Cover up those at-risk plants tonight! as it is going to be very cold. Our seasonal hoop house(which I was wondering if it was even going to be needed) has been up for about a month. This week it is worth its weight in gold. We roll up the sides during the day and drop them at night when it goes below 32. Tonight is going to be pushing the limits even for it. Good thing is that most of what is in the garden right now is just cold hard stuff anyway.

Snow coming down at a good clip right now. We have snow on raised surfaces and a little bit on the roads. No April Fools....legit stuff. We will now record a healthy trace here - maybe even a tenth of an inch of snow. Normally, that is no big deal, but in April it is pretty cool.

Off and on light snow showers today here at TRI. Fairly amazing on April 1st after the warmth and flooding that we have had during the past week. MANY trails in the mountains and parks have severe ruts in them due to the heavy rain.

@John1122 Beautiful day for sure. We managed to get some running and hiking in....

Bout time to start a new thread as Feb/March has pretty much run its course!

Looks like NW Kingsport received just over 5" of rain during the past 18 hours.

RE: First line that came through TRI this morning.... The hail photos out of Kingsport and JC are crazy. Today was our long run. Miles 1-4 were uneventful. We could hear the storm coming up behind us. Called my wife to get to our pick-up point early which is at mile 6.5. We hit mile 6.3(just .2 from the car) and had to stop under a bridge as the storm crossed the ridge and went bonkers. I wasn't sure we could get across the parking lot without getting hit by lightning. Temps began to drop quickly. They came over and picked us up. We all sat in the car as the storm roared through. We had nickel to quarter size hail. Picked up one dent - old van and not worried. Managed to get some video and photos near the last 1/3 of the storm. The Greenbelt was flooded within minutes in that section. @tnweathernut shared this with me...

Snow showers on April Fool's Day for NE TN, SW VA, and the higher elevations?

Some crazy snowfall pics from the record setting Rockies snowstorm this past weekend. If you get a chance, go on FB and look at Wyoming through the Lens. Crazy stuff. (May be two sites with the same name...)

What the EPS is advertising would be a chance at a significant late-season outbreak of cold straight off the pole d10-15. The is a crazy big PNA ridge - pretty much into the Arctic.

Crazy!!!! ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MST SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 14 to 24 inches possible. Accumulations up to 30 inches possible near Boulder and Fort Collins. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Fort Collins, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver, Denver, Castle Rock, and Greeley. * WHEN...From 5 AM MST Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Finish preparation for this storm by Friday. Conditions will likely deteriorate quickly Saturday as the storm arrives.

Going to be interesting to see this storm in the front range of the Rockies this weekend. Could be a record breaker.

That last saddle below Carvers is the place to be.

In a heartbeat. There is a beautiful valley just below that with an apple orchard. Lots of great homes there.

If I was moving to the area and location was not an issue....western NC on a northwest facing slope @Ji. As for everyone else. The 12z CMC spitting out single digits late in its run. Whew. Modeling starting to sniff out a trough amplification during the d10-15. Location TBD but likely east of the Rockies.

The MJO continues to advertise a cold shot of air mid-month or just after. Not saying snow or snow storm. I would think higher elevations are not done(maybe even folks along the KY/VA/TN/NC border. Ensembles are beginning to pick up on an eastern trough around mid-month which fits the MJO nicely. If this fits the pattern of cold shots that make it into the Lower 48, it may be abnormally cold. We will see. Enjoy this great weather!

12z Euro with some snow on the Plateau, especially the Smokies, and some light stuff in NE TN/SW VA with the system on the 3rd. Nothing huge...but not warm.

You can see the 18z GFS-para with a very good pass of a slp around the 6th. 1040 hp sitting just north of the GL. If that pulls north(and likely will as spring bowling balls are notorious for shifting north even at the last minute), that is not a terrible look. We really want stuff in Cuba at this time of year, and let it work back northward.

12z was flirting with something decent.

My hoop house is up and ready. That guaranteed what the MJO shows this AM which is a potentially high amplitude rotation through phase 1. Beginning to see some modeling "feel" the MJO now as SLP tracks are now south of our area. Have a feeling that much colder air will insert itself into the pattern. I really don't disagree with the March looks that are AN. But embedded in that pattern may be a cold and stormy 7-10 day time frame...been that way almost all winter.

The 12z CMC ensemble mean is flirting with a trough around the 13th. So, that is the first model to maybe show some hint of a response to the MJO. We will see if that occurs in reality, but worth watching in the LR>

LOL...I don't envy having to release a March forecast for a living. I think we could see AN temps for March, especially the first 10-12 days. This kind of has the feel of the cold spell earlier this month where it go pushed back a few days, and a few more...then just finally arrived. Guessing a 7-10 time frame of abnormally cold temps gets sandwiched in there at some point. I don't see that on modeling at some point, but the MJO in phase 1 would flip modeling in a hurry without a lot of warning.

US modeling has now moved decidedly towards the EURO model suites in regards to the MJO moving into phases which correlate to early spring cold. Makes me think cold, maybe significant, might be lurking right past what operational models can reach with their 16 day range. If real, we should begin to see LR modeling over the weekend produce some cold solutions periodically from run-to-run and then get more consistently so by mid-week next week.