Carvers Gap

Way out there for the HRRR, but that look would be a big storm. Probably not right FTR. However, that is a Miller A. Tough storm to track.

IDK, man. That looked like a good run for us, doubled 6z for MBY. LOL. I think that run had all of TRI at 5" or higher. Looks to me like the comma head still got us....just snows forever after the storm leaves.

Barring a model change at the end(which can happen on occasion) and just for fun....Kingsport hard "no" at this point unless they just need to burn a day. Bristol maybe a delay. Sullivan Co 60/40 out. Storm has trended away from Kingsport getting significant accumulations during the past 24 hours. Most modeling has Kingsport(the lowest elevation of the TRI and only city on an actual river which limits snow in addition to the EB) with a combo of snow to rain/ice and back to light snow. Best window for Kingsport would be Jan20-30th. Best to set the bar really, really low with this storm. Any accumulation greater than 1", celebrate.....Best chance or snow actually accumulating should be on the back side of the storm.

So, what we rally want to see in the eastern valley is a suppressed storm track, but just faint enough that the track still lifts the system northward. Looks to me like Jan20-30th is the best shot(maybe the last shot?) this winter for the eastern valley. February is not set in stone at this point by any means. However, in terms of having deep cold available, this is likely the last time frame where we can tap winter time cold. Could the track be too suppressed? Sure. But the track has never really been so suppressed this year to the point systems have skirted completely below us in the east. Systems have trended back northwest all winter. So, that window looks good. Plenty of energy. I suspect, as the 6z GFS depicts, that the timeframe will be active and cold. After that a period of moderation or pattern change. Looks like another great winter or folks in the middle and western parts of the forum area. They were well past due for a good stretch. Very traditional storm track for La Ninas, and a good reminder that warm Decembers don't always equate to the rest of winter being warm.

Awesome. Thanks, Tellico. I posted its snowfall map above.

We'll take it out or a spin. Here are the last two runs including 0z.

Looks like the Euro track. So the 0z GFS/NAM are kind of on their own. We will see what the Euro does in a bit. May set an alarm for that one.

And if you want to see the SE trend, go to 72 on TT and toggle back several runs. Major shift by that model. IF(and huge if given modeling being the way it is...fickle at times), the Euro may well have nailed this track.

Yeah, that is a pretty clean pass of the 0z CMC. That is basically a Miller A. So, take the CMC from the GFS camp and move it to the Euro.

Unless I am seeing things and it is late, the CMC looks like it is about to be a Miller A.

It is possible that we leave the 0z suite with a reasonable cone for a slp track. Once that happens, we can worry about slp strength, downslope, etc. Middle TN and the Plateau look to be great spots. E TN is still very much an unknown. If we get an inland runner track(and the primary doesn't hold on for too long over the Smokies which allows for the secondary to form further south than the NAM), a strong secondary slp would overcome lots of problems. As is, the inland runner track looks to be a "go." Just need that storm to get going over SC and not NC.

For folks who have WxBell, they have that model. I kind of like how it works, but just don't know if it will catch trends if it doesn't include the current suite. So, I am not sure how useful it is.

As long as there is not convection along the GOM, very much agree. The first storm, we got robbed in NE TN when convection popped there and cut of our tap! LOL.

Just looking at the past two 0z runs of the GFS, it has trended away from a shadow low heading through E TN. It has been a slow but steady trend. We will see where the Euro goes, but it is has pretty much moved to the Euro track now. Looks a lot like the track of the 18z Euro.

Someone tell me about the NMB. Which suites does it blend? Does it blend the current only, multiple suites, or suites pre-0z?

Need a stronger high over the top or a faster system IMO.

Here are the same hours....Secondary is already forming with the RGEM. Nam is a strung out mess with the primary still going strong over the Smokies. RGEM is actually a great track. Hand off issues withe these big storms are the norm for NE TN.

I am going to have to go back and look, I thought the MSLP looked quite different on the RGEM. There is a faint hint of residual low pressure even on the 18z Euro. The NAM held it there a lot longer, but I will go back and look. RGEM looks like it got the secondary going more quickly.

Out to 15 and I normally don't do PBP at this early hour in a run where the storm is over 40 away....the 0z GFS at 15 looks a hair quicker. Sometimes those small changes early can lead to other changes down the line. We will see....

The 0z GFS is rolling.

So right now, it is the RGEM/EPS/Euro/GEFS in one camp in terms of tracks. The GFS is another camp. The NAM is on its own. This will be a really good model test. Have the rolls reversed? IDK, but we are about to find out.... Been a while since we have seen the NAM at range out duel every other model.

The 0z RGEM looks nothing like the 0z NAM. More of a Miller A. It can amp some, but not like the NAM. Reasonable solution, if not maybe a hair east of where this track eventually ends up.

Just looking at the mslp low location, the NAM(18z and 0z) is dragging its heals when forming the coastal. No global ensemble has anything evolution that looks like that. Again, I strongly suspect it is too far west of sensible modeling. GFS/Euro blend looks wise to me. That doesn't mean downscoping won't exist east of 81/75. But if this turns out to be a Miller A, that NAM run is sheared out compared to what it will potentially become. I still think this becomes an inland runner. Energy handoff could be a problem, but for now I am only seeing the NAM with that issue. It may or may not appear on other modeling, but that is an outlier solution to this point.

Not John, but certainly plausible solution. As John notes, that very track can happen but is rare. Considering no other model has that solution (slp tracking the spine of the Apps), looks a bit amped to me. The real thing to nail down is the track. The NAM actually shifted the snow axis well eastward. It moved towards the Euro quite a bit, but quite a bit to go. My guess is a blend of the GFS and Euro would be a decent solution right now. Even if it put 4' of snow IMBY, I wouldn't trust the NAM at this range.

Agree. NAM has burned me too many times over the years at this range. That is 45-60 hours away on this run from precip onset IMBY. No way I trust it. As for the GFS, its ensemble is a perfect track. The amped models are producing amped solutions right now. No surprise there. Euro and EPS tracks are great. NAM/GFS are not for E TN. I am not seeing any other model send a low into the Apps. Until I see that, the NAM is an outlier solution. E TN has some battles to fight in order to get snow. Middle TN is looking good again. I believe the snow hole deal is over with or without this storm.