Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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At 57, is a bit quicker and better organized. FWIW, Pivotal is going to have this first. I am watching WxBell. Pivotal is releasing in 24 hour increments. Just looking for trends on the WxBell site.
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The system is coming in along the Washington St coastline at 48. Looks a hair south and certainly a bit stronger.
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The 12z Euro has initialized.......
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The 12z GEFS is going to have a massive snow mean for some areas.
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We need one of those @Stovepipe "The Euro is Rolling" trucks in a moment.
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Yeah, it is worth post if nothing more for posterity. 57" in West Virginia on that run. Not sure I have seen that in the East for a run.
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Somewhere in West Virginia had 57" of snow modeled on that run(Kuchera). Our mountains only had like 33-36."
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The snow map for the 12z GFS run is going be pretty stout.
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I agree. Used to, it was pretty much the second best model for tracking storms. Hopefully it is playing catch-up. It has struggled this winter though. Not sure why.
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What we want to see is DC involved. Seems like when they are involved, we see part of those storms. That said, this storm basically cuts due north from Savannah. Going to be a powerhouse IF that is correct. Lots of momentum being created/expended with a turn that sharp.
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Seems like the UK whiffed on the last storm erroneously.
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Hot off the press. 12z GEFS on left. 6z GEFS on right.
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Little trick on the TT website, just switch it over to the MSLP/precip. Nice pass on that run as well.
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There is very little room left for this to trend north or we will switch from priming snow shovels to liquid snow. That would be the word of caution. What will be interesting to see is if this is just a trend west or a trend to a MUCH larger storm. If that track is legit, have to think that sharp of a turn would result in a more snow/precip than modeled on the western fringe after the turn is made.
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Just post the one with the most. Weather hobby unspoken rule right there. LOL.
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GFS out to 128 says, "Hammer time!"
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Some are really going to like this run.
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Looks at 90 to be slightly (very slightly) north and east of 6z...could just be a precip shield difference vs change in the vort.
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12z ICON has changed to a southern pass and slightly inland runner.
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Out to 69, the 500 vort maps seem to have the storm digging slightly more to the west. We will see where this goes. If true, might give it slightly more room to come inland.
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12z GFS is rolling.
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We need this to really dig or this is going to easily be a Carolina special. I remember some storms like this back in either the late 90s or early 2000s where the snow line stopped right at the top of the Apps. I had to go to Carvers Gap to see snow!!! LOL.
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I just don't see an inland runner that gets inside of Hatteras, maybe e26 is closest which looks similar to the one off Hatteras by WxBell. The operational "I think" is on the far western side of its own suite. But again, the operational could be catching the trend first, and that wouldn't surprise me.
