Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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What is crazy...nearly the exact same thing happened during 1984. Highs in the 70s on Jan 1 followed by snow 3 days later. Not sure that analog helps going forward, but just crazy how good it was for February and up to now. -
Within 24 hours, many areas have gone from all-time record highs to accumulating snows. No doubt, that is wild stuff. Some modeling nailed this time from 3+ weeks ago and the rainfall that came right prior to today. Truly amazing that computer modeling can do that now.
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When was that released, Tellico?
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Between three separate rain shadows, and downsloping winds...we know the drill in Kingsport. LOL. Not too mention we have easily the state's largest micro-heat island. Not so much a warm nose here as it is warm air that just won't scour out or that we make our own warm air. We also deal with downlsoping winds. Once that slp swings to our SE, the warm nose stops. What I saw with that 23z run of the HRRR was the slp was 1-2mb deeper over Upstate SC which has caused much more moisture to be on that model run. Last Christmas, took a while for the warm air to leave and for cold to flood-in from the Plateau. Our biggest advantage here is that we are have higher elevation than most cities....JC and Bristol are I think 100-200 feet higher than us. We will see...thermal profile will be threading the needle. Usually is.
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@Daniel Boone, that dead spot in the wx grid along the VA/TN border is driving me crazy. LOL. It is on every model, every run. Something is way, way off with that.
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23z HRRR looks much stronger than 22z. Changeover is quicker. Let's see where that goes.
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@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountain model has verified yet again. This time amazingly so. Record highs yesterday in the middle and western areas of the region...snow today. I feel like I am seeing something from the Plains or northern Rockies with this turn around.
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That is a score, man!!!
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12z EPS update. Kind of a fun evolution of the next 15-16 days of weather. We get a strong cold shot next weekend. The PNA ridge pushes into the Plains(prob Chinook-eque). Then, the pattern retrogrades into a pretty nice pattern after that. Nice little window mid-month when the trough retrogrades westward. EPS is 24-36 hours slow that the GEFS/GEPS combo with the trough after the third trough(the one after next weekend). That is a great looking window. That WAR along with the WC ridge is a great snowstorm set-up. Again, cold shots with warm rushing-in as the cold leaves...wash, rinse, repeat.
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As we track the system this evening, I probably should add that both the 12z GEFS and GEPS looks pretty awesome in the long range. Going to be some swings, but they look good.
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So, are we talking 40 degree temperature swing in Nashville from this time yesterday?
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LOL. About 1,000 different ways for things to get sideways in the valley. Oddly, my fear with this would be downsloping which causes the column to warm just enough to slow the onset of the snow. The warm-nose itself is probably either a product of warm air pushing up the valley or warm air created by the downslope. I want to see a strong system coming by to our southeast. That will pull the cold in quickly. Good to see reports of early changeovers. May signal some strong dynamics.
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That is a win given it was like 95 yesterday!!!! Awesome to hear.
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Who is going to be the one to post the 18z snow total map for the entire run?
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Have a feeling we have to deal with some 4-6 at some point.
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Snow maps are similar, but appears that it backs more so. System is about 2-3mb deeper at hours 36 and 39. Just a hair northwest of its 12z run.
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We want the water in regions 8-1 to warm in order to allow for convection. That would do it. @Daniel Boone had a great post about it earlier.
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8 and 1 have had cooler SSTs this year due to the La Nina. The current slight warming at the surface may be helping things there progress, and provide almost a weak Nino signature. As those areas warm temporarily, the convection/rain can form there more easily. As @jaxjagmanpoints out in the ENSO thread, cold lurks right below it. If it upwells, the MJO hits the wall IMHO. Tough, tough forecast after mid-month. Our fate may rest in an accurate ocean current forecast and an accurate wind forecast which might cause the upwelling cold water in the west central Pacific. When we get a tropical system in those areas, everything goes haywire because they basically measure outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Colder temps are found in cloud tops. The OLR signatures for the MJO can get false readings which is why we had the GEFS likely get ahead of things in mid-Jan.
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Here is a rough map of the MJO regions...
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Man, the 18z GFS is a run...
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Thanks for the MJO plot. Sure beats hanging out in 4-6 all winter. MJO plots give me a headache. LOL. Not a lot of squiggly lines on the right "hemisphere" of that plot...we take!
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One addendum about the CFS and the MJO, the CFS being too quick into those good MJO phases makes it tough to use as a model. I guess one could try to account for its bias, and work from there - kind of what I do but that model will leave one with egg on their face more times than not. Not sure which model has handled the MJO well though. The CFS being so quick has given it a big time cold bias. It did catch this cold snap though...only because it is cold all of the time. LOL!
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It did for sure. It has been too quick all winter, but has generally been right about the sequence of phases. It just doesn't account for the loops and jagged moves. The BOMM looked decent today. I will see if I can get a photo of that. The big mistake with models in the MJO, they don't seem to be able to get the "speed" of the MJO correct.
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Think I posted one about four hours ago. I just hadn't updated for the EPS which looks good. So, will add a few thoughts. We will be a risk sometime around the 20th(if models are taken verbatim today) of a flip back to the western trough and Aleutian hp. Very unsure about that or any solution at all after the 20th. Would be very rare for modeling to hold such a steep trough in place for more than a couple of weeks. Then again the West had a great trough for about three weeks. If at some point we see a severe cold shot(single digits for lows and highs in the lower 20s), wouldn't surprise me to see it flip right after that. Seems to be the pattern for winters in this area. Great debate which is not settled regarding if the MJO takes the tour through 8-1-2. It has already defied all odds and made it into day2 of phase 8, hence the change to cold tomorrow night. Going to have some warm air masses intermingled between these cold fronts....a pattern with wild swings.
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18z GFS advertising yet another storm next weekend.
