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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    But look at what is approaching on the horizon. These are the 24 our temp changes by 12z Monday, January 3rd. The 30 degree swings have already passed through western areas by the time this hour has passed on the 12z GFS.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Definitely want to keep an eye on the system around the 6th-7th. The 12z Euro has pressed that system south and east. @Holston_River_Rambler already has us taken care of.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Long range post....will update this post when the EPS is through. So looks to me like this pattern holds to around the 20th, give our take 2-3 days. The trough is retrograding into the Aleutians during week 4(late in week three if you look at the GEPS). The GFS extended last night had a similar look. The GFS extended holds cold into week 4. Looks about right to me at this moment. Those AN heights would flip the pattern back west later in January. However, we are about to test a theory that @Daniel Booneand I were discussing yesterday. With no NAO block which essentially blocks the eastward push of cold, the cold may be free to push eastward despite the 500 configuration. It may undercut it through the end of the month before finally giving way to cold in the Mountain West to end the season. If you look at the surface temps on the GEFS extended, that is exactly what it does. The GEFS is slower with that and looks more like an Alaskan block with a large trough over NA. Honestly, by the time we get to Jan 20th, we all may want some warmer weather. So there is that. To me, It looks an awful lot like the MJO rotates through 8-1-2 and then back into the warmer phases. Whether it can get back around for one last shot of cold in Feb remains to be seen. Huge grains of salt as that is sandbox mode speculation right there.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is also showing similar backing with the system. Apologies to the middle and west TN folks for not having a GIF(that is Holston's game and he is good at it). WARM ground temps make the nighttime onset a huge bonus.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS definitely surprised me with that uptick. Below is its 6z to 12z trend comparison. The 12z CMC(compared to 0z) also had and uptick(not the ensemble here... the operational). I just haven't seen it posted, so are you go. Here is the GEPS comparison from 0z to 12z.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And for sure, this is the type of weather that can lead to severe wx. Hang on tight later.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah it is absurdly warm and muggy outside for 11AM in the Tricities. Sun is out as well. Very windy as well!!!! Not for Windspeed but an addendum to my post above....Just so as not to clutter the entire thread, I also wanted to add(fixed the post above) that Jan 1 of 1984 began with a high of 71 at TRI which was 26.5 above normal. Three days later TRI received a trace of snow on both the 4th and 5th. Again, not implying at all that we get a repeat of '84-85 extreme temps. However, the pattern is similar enough that it is has been repeatedly in the CPC analog lists due to the Aleutian high. Crazy that we have seen a smilier post season warm spell at the same time. The return to cooler temps will also be almost the same. Talking pattern similarities (not temp comparison) which is why I put that post in the historical thread. It is exactly 71 at the airport right now. LOL. Record high of 1974(set in 1952) is in jeopardy.
  8. Carvers Gap
    We really need a "wow" button.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I dropped some maps in the historical thread about 84-85. I feel like I have to note this every time I mention a historically wild pattern...NOBODY IS SAYING THAT WILL REPEAT. But extreme weather is what TN is known for. It is partly why TVA was formed - to control flooding (and also to bring cheap electricity). This forum area has long history(well before the internet and back to the first settlers) of having extreme weather swings, often during the same season. Temps and precip made it tough for both indigenous people and the first settlers. It was difficult to farm bottomland due to the unpredictability of flooding of our many rivers. I have no doubt that the extreme weather swings of this region will continue. 1984-85 as well as 1993 were generational patterns. Even for this regions, those extremes were rare extremes. However, we can learn what mechanisms produce extremes in our region. As I type this I can see @MattPetrulli's post hit the newsfeed. Wow! Not unexpected but still amazing!!! It will be interesting to see the 24 hour temp swings from Sunday to Monday. I can remember in December of 1984 wondering if winter would ever show up. I think we hit 70+ at TRI on the first day of January that season(yep...71 on Jan 1, nearly 27 degrees above normal that year). Kind of crazy that we are tracking a potential snowstorm while the temps outside are more like June. What will be crazy is that January might go AN just from today's and tomorrow's temp anomalies alone, regardless of the next 2-3 weeks of departures! What happens during the rest of the month will be interesting. Wild swings will continue. Anyway, feel free to comment and check out the 84-85 post in the historical thread.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Kind of a fun fact. January of 1985 began with a high of 71. Maybe I missed them in this thread, but I thought it would be helpful to place the 1984-85 winter reanalysis maps in this thread. Below you will find both the 500mb Geopotential and 2m surface temp maps for Dec '84 and Jan '85. It was a rare pattern that allowed for a piece of the PV to descend into the eastern TN Valley. Where I as living at the time had a thermometer which got to -26F. I can remember being under my house with dad trying to fix broken pipes. Sweating those pipes might have been one of the most agonizingly cold things I have ever done - just laying on the frozen ground trying to bleed excess moisture out of the pipes. My dad had also taken a trip to St Louis during that outbreak, and called to let us know that he was basically racing a snowstorm back to TRI. He barely made it home. The snow from that storm was around for weeks. Not sure I saw the ground until February. The reason it has come up this year in discussion is that the CPC is using it as an analog for their outlook maps. There reason for using it is likely where the AN heights were located during December - the Aleutians. The heights over Greenland are not the same as we just have had a -NAO there for much of this warm spell. But December was incredibly warm. Also, note the storminess(rain) around Los Angeles. We have seen that lately. That said, NOBODY is saying that Jan '85 is going to repeat. However, the mechanism for that outbreak is not to dissimilar to other outbreaks. Interestingly, that winter is really defined by a very small time frame. It got super warm as soon as that pattern left...and we were all happy about that. As I noted much earlier in the thread, the amount of Saturdays to make up for missed school was not pleasant! One final note, this is why many of us old timers don't give up on winter early. When I was a kid, warm Decembers often foretold of January cold. Not saying that happens this year...we will see.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the next system to keep an eye on is Jan 7. Long way off...could cut or could slide past. Have to think frozen is plausible for someone in the forum area.
  12. Carvers Gap
    One caveat.....the GFS, which sometimes finds a kernel of corn, has an ideal look at 500. The operational at both 0z and 12z builds heights in the western Atlantic which connect to the PAC ridge. That in turn traps very cold air and forces it southward. You know my feelings about sharing a foxhole with that model, but it has shown it twice now in the LR. That looks a lot like some great cold patterns. I was going to put ‘85-‘85 in that big post yesterday. It just didn’t fit what I was seeing in LR modeling. The GFS is rightly or wrongly flirting with that look. Even with that look, highly unlikely that we see those types of historical temps. Just commenting on the delivery system and/or mechanism which allowed for that cold pattern to occur. It would be worth noting that Dec ‘84 was incredibly warm - John has noted that several times. Dec ‘84 was in The analog package from the CPC yesterday.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Transition is well underway. Warm today and tomorrow until the cold front passes through. Ensembles this morning still look cold. Whether that big ridge out west and AN heights in eastern PAC hold in those same favorable spots(that they are now), anyone’s guess after the 20th. The pattern is retrograding but appears to have slowed and is holding BN heights over Greenland with cyclonic flow around it. That flow in turn sends very cold air into the middle and eastern half of the United States - centered more east. The MJO is now in phase 8 which (for a brief moment) means US modeling was correct. Does it stay there or do one more loop before progressing? No idea. Seems to be crawling in a progressive manner (with loops for good measure). After ~ Jan 20, one would think the retrograding pattern would put the high back in the Aleutians and the trough reposition out West. That is not a slam dunk, but it a plausible solution. If the MJO continues to slowly meander, it could conceivably meander all of the way to 2 OR loop into warm phases - there is that much spread. In the mean time, looks like we have several potential cold shots possible with warmth building as the cold exits....wash, rinse, repeat. Time to enjoy those cold fronts as they are conveniently showing-up at the best time of the year from a climatology standpoint. Holston has it covered this AM...
  14. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has several winter chances and lots of cold. 0z CMC looks similar. Happy New Year to the best weather forum on the planet!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    TIMS model doing the work so far...
  16. Carvers Gap
    Jan 7 timeframe still looks like a good window as well. The TN subforum snow map is going to be pretty stout after the happy hour run of the GFS. Two storms so far.
  17. Carvers Gap
    LONG POST.... Here are the last CFSv2 Monthly forecasts for January. For kicks and giggles, here is a composite of two favorite cold outbreaks: Januarys '96(moderate Nina), '15(weak El Nino which had just flipped). I did not include '84 as it is a different setup and is so extreme, though it did have a monster warm December. '84 is part of CPC's analog package again today. Here are also the 5 day maps of all three global ensembles at lunch. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. This is sandbox mode and just exploring the anatomy of a cold pattern and looking to see if the modeled LR patterns have some of these characteristics. @John1122 will like this. The NAO is positive in that composite map. There is a high in the GOA and/or in the Bering Sea. There is a little bit of an western Atlantic ridge - centered west. Kind of an interesting composite, but we are seeing elements of both Nina and Nino in modeling. These are 31d composites being compared to 5d composites. I would be surprised if the entire month was like January 15' and 96'. Just seems like we could see the the first half of the month look or evolve to something similar. Again, as stated earlier (several times), not sure where the pattern goes during the second half of the month. Just looking for a window.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Here are those maps....
  19. Carvers Gap
    LOL. It took me a few hours to gain some perspective!!! But seriously, UT football was fun to watch again this year. What a fourth quarter. Two heavy weight offenses(great offensive head coaches) just slugging it out. I felt like I was watching a PlayStation game. 4th and goal from the 14...no problem. This will be remembered as one of the better bowl games. Both teams showed up with the intent to win. And again, I think we finally have a coach in Heupel - calm, smart, crafty, and a bit of a riverboat gambler. As Cowherd noted quite eloquently, UT didn't play a lot of boring football this year.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has now joined the GEFS and GEPS with a huge EPO ridge in the LR. The actual 12z Euro operational was really cold. The EPS backed it up. Not sure how long modeling can hold this look, but the massive ridge out west is complemented by the massive trough in the East in the mid and long range. One would think that would break down fairly quickly. That said, if that trough can grab part of the PV, it can travel well south with the mechanics of that set-up.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It was a wild game. Kind of gave that one away, but at least we got better. I would rather watch us lose in a shootout than to get drummed 38-14. TN football is kind of fun to watch again.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I mean we could always strike out. But getting some BN temps into the region during January along with normal precip.....we take. Sounds like a great time. Is Big Bald right there near Sam's Gap - sort of north of it on the AT?
  23. Carvers Gap
    You know I think they have to do that sometimes just to give our WRs some rest in the hurry-up. Like giving everyone a breather. Plus, it makes the defense stay honest - edge rushers can't go wide. UT is gonna play fast. When the other team has to start faking injuries because they are out of shape and can't sub....we have a good scheme. Fulmer was a master in OT. I sat through a 7OT? game one time against Arkansas. Got home at like 5AM! LOL. His teams had pounded the rock during regulation. He loved the type of games where it went to OT, because he knew the other team was beaten to a pulp.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I get the deep throws at the end of the fourth quarter. On one of those, the receiver was held or he walks in...that was a badly missed defensive hold. The throw was there. First and goal from the 2 in OT...gotta pound the rock. But give it to Heupel, he calls a game to win it. This TN team couldn't score at all last year. Tillman went from being a ho-hum receiver to having a 1,000 yard season. Hunter left VT after losing his starting job, and had a career year...enough so that he is on NFL draft lists. If Evans plays during the second half of the season at RB, we win easily last night. I know Purdue was missing guys, but we only have like 71 guys on scholarship right now - 71. We were missing our best OL, best RB, and best DB last night. Purdue was missing some guys as well. But Heupel came out in his presser and took responsibility. He owned it. Love that guy. Hate we lost, but this team went from a team which couldn't score at all last year to a team that nearly won a shoot out with like 1,200 yards of offense! LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Note in the threats assessment the risk for hazardous cold in west forum areas is now within the slight risk "cone."
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