Carvers Gap

Map is pretty much accurate. However, I don’t know many(if any) who received more that a dusting in most of Kingsport. Maybe someone got a 1” lollipop. Not a huge deal, but it is pretty much brown/green grass here. LOL! Not the end of the world. Super glad it worked out for everyone else. There have been many times when we score in Kingsport and very few others do. Just taking our turn this time! Plenty of winter left. Plus, I enjoy tracking winter weather about as much as the event itself. Still crazy to have a high of 77 on Saturday, only to have it snow 36 hours later. That makes this hobby fun. La Niña winters have been good to you, @AMZ8990!

Forgot about the convection piece. Good point.

With one winter storm in the books for many(not all) in the forum area, time to turn the focus to the next potential storm and next few windows of opportunity. The 6z Euro is a little further south with the TR/FRI system. Given that model run and the 0z CMC, to me that looks like a good opportunity for someone along a line from Memphis to Nashville and points northwestward to maybe score a light event. Maybe some wrap around snow for the rest of us. But until the GFS caves, probably need to keep an eye on it. That said, the GFS is more of a quick hitting, light event for a good portion of the forum area about 100 miles north of the TN border (and northward). The Euro is more of a NW TN and KY/TN border system(and point northward. To me I think the CMC and Euro seems to have the TR/FR system under control. The Euro trended slightly south at 6z, so the I-40 corridor and northward is in play...again, I tend to think the Euro is correct here. After that, looks like a brief warm-up from the 12th-15th. The current area of BN heights will lift out to our NE and an area of AN heights will push into the Plains(out of the Rockies) at that time. Then, almost all global ensembles retrograde the trough(which pushes into the western Atlantic) back into the East and eventually to the mid-section of NA. Another good window on LR modeling after the 15th. Whether the trough continues retrograde back into the West is open great debate. The 6z GFS shows the potential of the pattern after the 15th. Good storm track on both the 6z EPS and 12z GEFS if it verifies. The MJO is coupled well with what modeling is depicting now as it shows a loop into 7 or the COD. I would suspect it comes back to phase 8 at some point. Almost all modeling has been pretty lousy with the MJO plots of late. The Euro was erroneous in trying to keep the MJO out of 8. It was correct in dragging its feet. The GEFS was too aggressive at one point with moving it into 8. It was correct in eventually moving into 8, albeit it appears briefly. The Australian MJO yesterday looked reasonable, though it is certainly not infallible either.

Oak Ridge and Oliver Springs were slow to change over. Kingsport is another area with very little. We don’t shed many tears here. After four decades of living here, pretty much the norm. Though, the last few years we have done well. We were overdue. Will officially record a trace here. Normally with a low to our southeast, we score. Band just didn’t set up over Kingsport. Other areas of TRI did well - closer to the Apps one goes. Great storm to track though!

Had snow in west Kingsport for several hours. Just wasn’t snowing very hard. Have a minor dusting at my house on raised surfaces. That will be the final total. Congratulations to all who scored!!! What a crazy swing.

Mostly sleet. Some snow as it gets heavier. More frozen stuff during the past 15 minutes. Slower transition as we are just a little ahead of the main area of lift. Raised surfaces almost seem frozen now.

Oh yeah.

Seems like when those temps drop below 38, things start to change. Temps in Kingsport range from 36-37.5 right now.

12k 0z NAM is pretty big for TRI. Washington/Unicoi Co's looks like the bullseye.

Temps are crashing here. We have mostly rain, but can confirm that some sleet and snow is mixing in.

We are a wild bunch. 24 people logged into the sub-forum as we speak at 2:30AM to work a snowstorm. LOL. Awesome!!!

Thought you would be close. I can see 2,700' from my back window. Socked in....cloud deck is dropping. Just a matter of cold working into lower elevations now.

There we go. I have been using MyRadar. Seems to have better caught the changeover line. RadarScope is infinitely better. In this case, however, simplicity seems to be the trick.

Yeah, it's moving in to the communities just west of Knoxville. Clinton and Oak Ridge should begin to see a mix anytime.

Finally started raining steadily her. Wind is blowing. It may be raining, but it is cold out there. Any southwest Virginia folks seeing a changeover?

Have spent a lot of time out West. Warm ground temps rarely stop heavy snowfall from accumulating.

We will simply say that we are ready for basketball and "curling." Curling is code for that which shall not be named unless the Storm Prediction Center decides to throw down the double dare, hatched heavy curling jinx. Then all responsibility is passed to that higher authority.

What is crazy...nearly the exact same thing happened during 1984. Highs in the 70s on Jan 1 followed by snow 3 days later. Not sure that analog helps going forward, but just crazy how good it was for February and up to now.

Within 24 hours, many areas have gone from all-time record highs to accumulating snows. No doubt, that is wild stuff. Some modeling nailed this time from 3+ weeks ago and the rainfall that came right prior to today. Truly amazing that computer modeling can do that now.

When was that released, Tellico?

Between three separate rain shadows, and downsloping winds...we know the drill in Kingsport. LOL. Not too mention we have easily the state's largest micro-heat island. Not so much a warm nose here as it is warm air that just won't scour out or that we make our own warm air. We also deal with downlsoping winds. Once that slp swings to our SE, the warm nose stops. What I saw with that 23z run of the HRRR was the slp was 1-2mb deeper over Upstate SC which has caused much more moisture to be on that model run. Last Christmas, took a while for the warm air to leave and for cold to flood-in from the Plateau. Our biggest advantage here is that we are have higher elevation than most cities....JC and Bristol are I think 100-200 feet higher than us. We will see...thermal profile will be threading the needle. Usually is.

@Daniel Boone, that dead spot in the wx grid along the VA/TN border is driving me crazy. LOL. It is on every model, every run. Something is way, way off with that.

23z HRRR looks much stronger than 22z. Changeover is quicker. Let's see where that goes.

@Holston_River_Rambler, the Thunder in the Mountain model has verified yet again. This time amazingly so. Record highs yesterday in the middle and western areas of the region...snow today. I feel like I am seeing something from the Plains or northern Rockies with this turn around.